climate destabilization

Planet Watch

Global carbon emissions hit record high in 2024

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have hit a record high in 2024, with still no sign that they've peaked, according to a "carbon budget" assessment by the UK-based Global Carbon Project. Researchers found that burning of oil, gas and coal emitted 41.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in 2024, a 0.8% increase over 2023. When added to emissions generated by land-use changes such as deforestation, a total of 45.8 billion tons of CO2 was emitted in 2024. At this rate, the researchers see a 50% chance that global warming will exceed the 1.5 Celsius warming target set by the Paris Agreement within six years. The findings come as the UN climate talks open in Azerbaijan, where the parties are ostensibly negotiating ways to meet the Paris targets. But the leaders of the biggest carbon emitters—those nations responsible for 70% of 2023 emissions—did not bother to attend the gathering. (Photo of Azerbaijan oilfields: Indigoprime via Wikimedia Commons)

Africa

Sudan war drives continued refugee exodus: UN

The war in Sudan is driving continued refugee flight, leading to a deepening humanitarian crisis in the greater region, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported. The agency said that more than 3 million people have fled Sudan, seeking safety in neighboring countries, since the war began in April 2023. The refugees are faced with challenges of food shortages and continued rights violations such as killings, sexual violence and looting, as well as natural disasters such as flooding. In October, around 60,000 Sudanese escaping the escalated fighting in Darfur arrived in Chad, which is facing a resource shortage due to its increasing refugee population, now at over 1.1 million. The refugees there face an overwhelmed healthcare system, scarce food, and no education for their children who have already been out of school for two years. (Map: PCL)

Planet Watch

COP16 adopts agreement on indigenous peoples

Meeting in Cali, Colombia, the 16th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16) adopted several agreements regarding an expanded role for indigenous peoples in biodiversity preservation efforts. A new agreement on Article 8J of the Convention aims to enhance the place of indigenous knowledge and participation in crafting the Global Biodiversity Framework. Delegates agreed to establish a "subsidiary body" under Article 8J to include indigenous peoples in future decisions on nature conservation, and oblige private corporations to share the benefits of research when tapping genetic resources under the stewardship of indigenous communities. (Photo: UN Biodiversity via Flickr)

The Caribbean

Power outages persist in storm-wracked Cuba

The collapse of the electrical grid plunged the entire island of Cuba into darkness last week—a situation worsened by the arrival of Hurricane Oscar. The national blackout, which caused many families to lose most of the little food they had, sparked rare protests amid a broader economic crisis marked by soaring inflation and widespread shortages of medicine, food, and water. Power has now been restored in the capital, Havana, but many rural areas remain in the dark, while schools and workplaces across the country remain closed due to ongoing energy-saving measures. (Map: Perry-Castañeda Library)

Southeast Asia

Flooding deepens dire rights situation in Burma

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) reported that over 570,000 people are displaced in Burma's Rakhine state due to ongoing conflict between the Myanmar Armed Forces and the rebel Arakan Army, adding to the over 3 million people displaced across the country. Worsening the humanitarian situation, Burma has been hit by severe flooding since early September. Torrential monsoon rains and the remnants of Typhoon Yagi have affected an estimated 1 million people across 70 of the country's 330 townships, causing significant damage to crops, farmland and livestock. According to UNOCHA, this has further exacerbated the vulnerabilities of conflict-affected communities. Humanitarian responses face significant challenges, including blocked supply routes, communication blackouts, and restricted access to rural areas. (Map: PCL)

The Amazon

Amazon wildfires release record greenhouse emissions

The Amazon rainforest has seen a record-setting wildfire season this year, fueled by an historic drought and scorching temperatures. In Brazil, the cumulative total estimated carbon emissions from the fires so far in 2024 has reached 183 megatons, according to Europe's Copernicus atmospheric monitoring service—equivalent to the total annual emissions of the Netherlands. The unprecedented fires come even as overall deforestation (defined as the permanent conversion of forest for another use, such as logging, mining or farming) has dropped in Brazil since President Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva took office in January 2023. Fires now account for a much higher proportion of forest loss. (Photo: Marizilda Cruppe/Greenpeace via Mongabay)

Planet Watch

CounterVortex meta-podcast: ranting against the apocalypse

In the first CounterVortex meta-podcast of February 2018, we noted the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' decision to advance the minute hand of its Doomsday Clock to two minutes of midnight. The clock was most recently moved to 90 seconds to midnight in January 2023, in light of the Ukraine war—the closest it has ever been. The clock did not move forward in 2024, despite Israel crossing the genocidal threshold in Gaza—a conflict now spreading to Lebanon, with potential to ignite the entire Middle East and even the world. The threat of Iran being drawn into the conflict could bring its patron Russia nose-to-nose with Israel's patron, the United States. This comes just as Vladimir Putin has announced a revision to Russia's nuclear weapons doctrine, allowing a first strike if its territory is attacked even by a non-nuclear state that is backed by a state with nuclear weapons. This appears to add frightening credibility to the mounting nuclear threats from Moscow. Amid all this, small efforts at Jewish-Arab co-existence by the besieged peace camp within Israel point to the potential for the ongoing protests against Netanyahu to take on an explicit anti-war character. In Episode 245 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg makes the case that such measures, however seemingly modest, constitute a countervortex to humanity's general downward spiral toward devastating war, ecological collapse and fascism.

Planet Watch

Storms and floods kill hundreds around the globe

Typhoons, storms and flooding have killed hundreds and left millions homeless across four continents in recent days. More than 600 people—mostly in Vietnam and Burma—died when Super Typhoon Yagi, one of the strongest typhoons to hit Southeast Asia in decades, tore through the region, triggering landslides. In China, Typhoon Bebinca battered the commercial capital, Shanghai, forcing more than 400,000 people to evacuate. In Europe, at least 23 people died when Storm Boris dumped five times September's average rainfall in a single week. In the United States, parts of North and South Carolina recorded 45 centimeters of rain in 12 hours—a statistic so rare it's considered a once-in-a-thousand-year event. Inevitably, the wild weather has been devastating for more vulnerable countries. In conflict-affected northeastern Nigeria, half of the city of Maiduguri is under water after a local dam overflowed following torrential rains; recently emptied displacement camps are being used to shelter the homeless. In neighboring Chad, meanwhile, flooding has killed more than 340 people in the country's south. (Photo: CounterVortex)

Planet Watch

Progress on making ecocide an international crime

Three Pacific island nations have proposed that ecocide become a crime under international law, which would see the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecute cases of environmental destruction alongside war crimes and genocide. The move by Vanuatu, Fiji, and Samoa is unlikely to see fast results but is expected to force ICC member states to at least consider the question. The initiative could one day lead to company leaders, or even nations, facing prosecution. However, ICC member states notably do not include China, Russia, India or the United States. (Photo: Stefan Müller via Wikimedia Commons)

East Asia

Podcast: nuclear power and the struggle in Guangdong

In Episode 240 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg discusses China's hubristic plans for massive expansion of its nuclear power sector—and notes that some of the new plants are slated for the southern province of Guangdong, which in recent years has seen repeated outbursts of protest over land-grabs and industrial pollution as well as wildcat labor actions (and was, in fact, the site of a nuclear accident in 2021). China's expropriated peasant class has been left behind by the breakneck industrialization of the past decades, and may prove a source of resistance to the new thurst of nuclear development that would further accelerate it—despite the current crackdown on dissent. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon. (Map via ResearchGate)

Africa

Sudan peace talks no-show

US-sponsored talks to halt the 16-month conflict in Sudan kicked off in Geneva, but there was a no-show from the army despite all the fanfare. There had been hope that the new venue and buy-in from regional powers supporting the warring factions—including Egypt and the United Arab Emirates—would give the process a better chance of succeeding than prior, disjointed mediation attempts. But the army's command remains internally divided on the issue of dialogue—especially while it is on the back foot militarily—and is wary of the US. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the army's rival, is meanwhile being accused of attending talks only to launder its image and bolster its international legitimacy. Grassroots civilian groups also remain deeply wary of another potential power-sharing accord that strengthens the military generals at their expense. (Map: PCL)

Greater Middle East

Yemen: Houthis obstruct aid amid deepening disaster

Flooding in Yemen’s coastal Hodeidah province has killed at least 30 people, while floods in the inland district of Taizz killed 15. The World Health Organization reports severe damage to homes and infrastructure, with contaminated water worsening the cholera outbreak in the country. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch said in a new report that authorities across Yemen have "obstructed aid" to stricken areas, and "failed to take adequate preventative measures to mitigate the spread of cholera." The report especially criticizes such obstruction by the Houthi forces, who have for years maintained a siege of Taizz. (Map via PCL)