TNH – CounterVortex

Europe

Russia agrees to (shorter) grain deal extension

Russia agreed to extend the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine, but for only 60 days rather than the 120 days of the original agreement. The UN-brokered deal enables safe shipment of grain from Ukraine’s blockaded ports to boost global supply and stabilize prices. The agreement rolled over in November, but Russia now argues that provisions for the easing of restrictions on its own agricultural and fertilizer exports have not been met. So far, 24 million tonnes of grain have been exported under the initiative. But the International Rescue Committee noted that only 10% has gone to countries most in need. It has called on the UN to broker a 12-month deal, pointing out that food price inflation is at 40% in countries most at risk of “humanitarian catastrophe”—double the rate of the rest of the world. (Map: PCL)

Greater Middle East

Will Iran-Saudi deal end Yemen’s war?

As part of its China-brokered deal to re-establish diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, Iran has reportedly agreed to stop arming Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Officially, Tehran denies arming the rebels, who are fighting forces aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognized government—including a Saudi- and UAE-led coalition. Many have portrayed the conflict in Yemen as a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It’s actually far more complicated than that: the violence is rooted in real grievances, and political and military alliances are also at play at a much more local level. Powerful Yemeni actors—all vying for a stake in the country’s future—have been left out of official peace talks. (Map via University of Texas)

Africa

Clashes over contested Somaliland regions

More than 200 people have died in three weeks of fighting around a disputed town in Somalia’s northern breakaway region of Somaliland. More than 95,000 refugees have reportedly fled into neighboring Ethiopia after three weeks of clashes. Local militias around Las Anod are fighting to pull three administrative regions–Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn–away from Somaliland, with the aim of rejoining Somalia. Meanwhile, Puntland, a semi-autonomous region of Somalia that is also in a territorial dispute with neighboring Somaliland, has sent in troops to support the militias. (Map via Wikimedia Commons)

Afghanistan

US welcomes Ukrainians; Afghans left in limbo

More than 271,000 Ukrainians have been admitted to the United States since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year–far exceeding the goal of 100,000 set by President Joe Biden’s administration last March. Meanwhile, hundreds of Afghans protested in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, over long delays in their US resettlement process. After the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, the United States opened programs to provide fast-track visa access for at-risk Afghans. However, these program have reportedly stalled, leaving many in vulnerable positions in Pakistan, struggling to access essential services. (Photo of evacuees arriving at Fort Lee, Va., via Homeland Security Today)

Africa

Ethiopia: violence ebbs in Tigray, flares in Oromia

The war in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region has cooled down since the signing of a peace deal in November. But a separate conflict is intensifying further south, in Oromia, where civilians are suffering as anti-government rebels step up attacks. Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) guerillas were previously confined to the fringes of western and southern Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest region. But analysts say the Tigray war created a security vacuum that has helped the OLA expand its long-running insurgency. The security situation is now “fast deteriorating,” the UN’s aid coordination agency, OCHA, warned in a report last month. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been uprooted and essential services are not functioning in some conflict-affected areas. (Map via EthioVisit)

Afghanistan

Afghanistan: aid operations hit by anti-women decree

Several international aid organizations have suspended their work in Afghanistan in response to a new Taliban edict barring Afghan women from working with any local or foreign NGO until further notice, while the UN is urging the “Islamic Emirate” to reverse its decision. The International Rescue Committee, Save the Children, the Norwegian Refugee Council, CARE International, and Islamic Relief all announced they would halt their work in Afghanistan until all female staff are able to return to work. Aid groups recognized that suspending work now, at the start of winter and amid growing hunger, was particularly bad timing, but said they felt they had little choice but to send a clear message to the Taliban authorities. (Photo: UNICEF)

Africa

Thousands flee worsening South Sudan clashes

Among the long list of ostensibly local conflicts that have broken out in South Sudan since a national peace deal was inked in 2018, analysts say the current violence involving Nuer and Shilluk militias in Upper Nile state ranks among the deadliest. Thousands of people have been uprooted since mid-November and there are concerns of an imminent attack on Kodok—a town hosting more than 10,000 displaced Shilluk. Nuer forces have encircled Kodok and cut off escape routes, including to the nearby UN protection camp in Malakal. Though clashes are along communal lines, they were triggered by internal tensions within a splinter group of the country’s main opposition movement, the SPLA-IO. Simon Gatwech (a Lou Nuer) and Johnson Olony (a prominent Shilluk) defected from the group last year before turning on each other. President Salva Kiir has said he “cannot stop” the fighting, though critics say his regime benefits from pitting the feuding factions against each other. (Map: Perry-Castañeda Library)

The Andes

Venezuela: oil sanctions eased, Chevron pleased

Negotiations barely got started in Mexico between representatives of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his political opposition before the United States announced the loosening of oil sanctions imposed on the regime. The move, allowing Chevron to begin pumping oil again, comes amid global energy shortages following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Chevron is also to take operational control of the Petropiar refinery near Barcelona in northeast Venezuela. But profits are to go to Venezuela’s creditors in the US, not the state oil company, PDVSA. Social programs funded through PDVSA have been a cornerstone of Maduro’s support. (Map: Perry-Castañeda Library)

Africa

Ethiopia: continued fighting hinders Tigray aid

A month after the two parties signed a ceasefire agreement, the truce between Ethiopia’s government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is holding. But while aid flows into Tigray are scaling up, deliveries still aren’t matching needs. The World Food Program reports that while corridors into Tigray have reopened, access to some areas in the region remains off limits. Essential services, including banking and the internet, remain switched off, with no date set for restoring them. And while plans are proceeding for the disarmament of TPLF fighters, that process is complicated by Eritrean and Amhara forces, which were allies to the government during the conflict—and are reportedly still carrying out attacks on civilians in Tigray, including killings, kidnapping and looting. (Map: Political Geography Now)

Planet Watch

Imperiled Tuvalu to become first ‘digital nation’

Tuvalu, the Pacific island nation beset both by rising sea levels and extreme drought, used the COP27 climate summit to announce that it will move to the so-called metaverse. “As our land submerges, we have no choice but to become the world’s first digital nation,” Simon Kofe, Tuvalu’s foreign affairs minister, said in a pre-recorded address from TeAfualiku islet—likely one of the first places in Tuvalu to sink beneath the waves in the coming years. “Piece by piece, we’ll preserve our country, provide solace to our people, and remind our children and our grandchildren what our home once was,” Kofe said. Tuvalu has indeed taken early steps to explore its digital survival under worst-case scenarios. But the overarching message is clear as world leaders emerge from another summit with still-gaping questions on climate action: “Only concerted global effort can ensure that Tuvalu does not move permanently online, and disappear from the physical plane,” Kofe said. (Image via Pixabay)

Africa

East African troops deploy against M23 in Congo

Kenya is set to deploy a battalion of soldiers to eastern Democratic Republic of Congo as part of a regional military response to advancing M23 rebels. Kenya will command the new East African force, which will include troops from Burundi, South Sudan and Uganda. A notable absentee from this intervention will be Rwanda: Congo accuses Kigali of supporting M23, and tensions are soaring. In the past weeks, M23 has dramatically expanded the territory it controls, forcing UN peacekeepers to abandon a strategic base at Rumangabo, and closing in on the key city of Goma. In a region with a history of foreign meddling—in which more than 120 rebel groups operate—the East African deployment is distrusted. Both Burundi and Uganda already have troops inside Congo pursuing their own interests. (Map: CIA)

Africa

‘War footing,’ paramilitary drive in Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso’s new military government said that the country is on a “war footing,” and launched a drive to recruit 50,000 civilian defense volunteers to help the overstretched army fight jihadist insurgents. The recruits receive two weeks of basic training and then join the Volunteers for the Defense of the Fatherland (VDP), a village-based militia network. But the VDP has been accused of targeting the pastoralist Fulani people in extra-judicial killings. A campaign of hate speech on social media has described all Fulani as “terrorists”—even though they are also often the victims of jihadist attacks. (Map: Perry-Castañeda Library)