TNH – CounterVortex

Ethiopia: drone strikes on Addis Ababa

If Ethiopia's federal government thought Addis Ababa was insulated from the conflict in its restive Tigray and Amhara regions, drone strikes have forced a reappraisal. Blasts targeted the military's headquarters in the west of the city, and another military camp in the south. The seven-member opposition "Alliance for Survival" claimed responsibility. Meanwhile, as fighting worsens, the federal army and pro-government militia are said to be advancing toward northern Tigray's main city of Mekelle. (Map: Political Geography Now)

Somaliland offers Trump a deal on recognition

Breakaway Somaliland is pulling out the stops to win US recognition, offering access to its strategic Berbera port, mineral deals, and even a Trump Tower. Recognition may not immediately be in the cards, but Berbera is particularly significant at the moment. It sits close to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the global shipping lane that Yemen's Houthis can potentially close at will. Somaliland is juicing its proposal with the prospect of a base for US forces (there have already been US military visits), and potentially for Israel—the only country to recognize its independence. The conservative Hudson Institute, among other voices in the US political establishment, is pushing Somaliland's case as a "bulwark" against the Houthis—and even Chinese influence. (Map: Somalia Country Profile)

Algeria sends troops to Niger

A surprising outcome of the failed coup against Niger's military junta was the arrival, a day later, of an Algerian air detachment, including four SU-30 fighter jets. The deployment was a clear signal that Algeria is breaking from its non-interventionist stance and wants its troubled southern neighbors in the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger—to take note. Algeria was not involved in the quashing of the putsch against Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani. That was down to the presidential guard, backed by Russia's paramilitary force, the Africa Corps. But Algeria does fear state collapse in the Sahel amid Islamist insurgencies that have their roots in its own internal violence of the 1990s. Algeria's new-found interest also coincides with the start of construction on a Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline that will stretch from Nigeria to the Mediterranean coast. (Map: PCL)

Syria

Israeli strike on Syria signals tension with Türkiye

Israel's bombing of an air-base in northwest Syria brings into sharp focus the escalating tension between Israel and Türkiye. The attack apparently came shortly after a Turkish delegation visited the Abu Duhur base in Idlib province. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement that Israel had attacked the base because Syria was on the verge of breaching the agreed "status quo in security matters" by allowing in Turkish troops. Ankara condemned the Israeli bombing and seemed to deny it was planning to deploy at Abu Duhur, which it has reportedly been rebuilding. The two countries are increasingly at odds over each other's regional presence. A campaign billboard for Netanyahu's Likud party places Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan alongside the leaders of Iran, Hezbollah, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. "They want Netanyahu to lose," it says, refering to his political opposition. "Don't let them win." (Image: Wikipedia)

Colombia earthquake strikes at challenging time

Aid organizations responding to the powerful earthquake that hit Colombia face significant challenges, including difficulties accessing some of the worst-hit areas in remote western regions that have been seeing rising violence. The quake comes as Colombia was already facing its worst humanitarian crisis in years. In Chocó department, where the earthquake's epicenter is located, restrictions on humanitarian aid by illegal armed groups are common. The region is not only one of the poorest in the country but also one of the hardest hit by armed conflict. (Map: OpenStreetMap via The New Humanitarian)

Ethiopia: Tigray fighting flares again

Clashes between the Ethiopian army and Tigrayan forces have led to hundreds of civilians crossing into neighboring Sudan, marking another serious threat to a 2022 peace agreement. Heavy artillery and drones were used during the fighting, which was concentrated in contested western Tigray. Both sides have been amassing troops in recent months and there has been a significant recruitment drive in Tigray, where regional authorities have forcibly conscripted civilians, including children, according to Human Rights Watch. Close to a million Tigrayans have been unable to return to their homes despite the peace deal, and have struggled to recover from the ethnic cleansing and siege campaign carried out by the Ethiopian army and its allies during the 2020-2022 conflict. A return to war would likely involve Eritrea, and could pull in Sudan, merging two of the deadliest conflicts in recent history. (Map: Political Geography Now)

US-Iran war spirals across Middle East

As the US-Iran war escalates, more countries in the Middle East have—officially or unofficially—entered the fray over the past week. As the US stepped up air-strikes on Iran, it joined with Saudi Arabia to launch strikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Iran (or the Houthis) hit Egypt, Kuwait and Jordan, where three US soldiers were killed. Saudi Arabia is building a military alliance to police the Red Sea, with an eye toward removal of the Houthis from power in Yemen. The US Senate again failed to pass a War Powers Resolution, while the Iran regime apparently sees it as in its political interest to extend the conflict on at least a minimal basis. Nonetheless, it appears to be quickly spiralling out of control. (Image: Pixabay)

AI chatbots shill for repressive regimes

New research from Meta's Oversight Board found commercial large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, DeepSeek, Google, Meta, OpenAI and xAI are far less likely to criticize repressive leaders and governments. The research calls it "free speech infringements by proxy." Apps and material produced by these generative AI tools could actively reproduce restrictions, including on political criticism. It's unclear why these AI models are doing this—underscoring the need for companies to be transparent and build "human rights due diligence" into the process, before it’s too late. China, Thailand, Cambodia and Saudi Arabia topped the list of countries with the highest refusal rates when LLMs were prompted to create materials criticizing governments. (Photo: chinaworker.info)

Nigerian jihadists turn to AI

The technical prowess of jihadi groups in West Africa is well documented—from the use of surveillance and attack drones to Elon Musk's Starlink and cryptocurrencies. The adoption of generative AI, then, should come as no surprise. New research details how the jihadist movement in Nigeria has become adept at using AI operationally in attack planning, weapons calibration, and the design of explosives. Initial training was delivered through transnational jihadist networks, but Nigerian groups now have dedicated AI teams staffed by trusted personnel drawn from senior operational and technical roles, including bomb-makers, gun specialists, and engineers. "Trial and error can kill you. AI gives you accuracy," a recently demobilized ex-combatant explained to researchers at the Cambridge Programme on AI Science & Policy (CASP). (Photo via TNH)

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Israeli agent?

Operatives from Israel's spy agency Mossad met several times with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad since 2023 in an effort to install the former Iranian president as a new leader for the country, according to a New York Times investigation. Staunchly anti-Zionist during his 2005-2013 presidency, Ahmadinejad reportedly distanced himself from Iran's Islamist government in recent years after being blocked from running for additional terms, and came to see the economic sanctions punishing Iran over its nuclear program as an unacceptable burden. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quashed disagreements within his administration in order for the recruitment of Ahmadinejad to proceed. However, after being brought to a Mossad safehouse in Tehran amid US and Israeli strikes in February, Ahmadinejad balked at the regime-change plan and absconded, and is now being held by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. (Photo: Khamenei.ir via The Media Line)

US blocks funding for AU mission in Somalia

The blocking by the US of UN funding to African Union (AU) forces in Somalia starting next year is a body blow to a mission that has long been on financial life-support. The UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) provides the logistical backing critical to the functioning of the AU mission. Without that underpinning, it's hard to see how the AU's 11,800-strong force can continue. That became evident when Washington vetoed the application to Somalia of UN Resolution 2719 on peacekeeping cost-sharing. The AU's near two-decade mission has done significant work. Despite heavy casualties, it succeeded in ousting al-Shabab from Mogadishu—a daunting task the UN and the rest of the international system was unwilling to take on—and continued to protect Somalia's fractious political elite from the jihadist insurgency. But the inability of Somalia to grow and deploy its own security forces to consolidate territorial gains secured by the AU resulted in deadly mission creep and effectively tore up any putative exit plan. Instead, the AU has soldiered on in the absence of a workable political strategy, and with ever-shrinking sources of financing. (Photo: AUSSOM)

UN investigation finds genocide in Sudan

The UN fact-finding mission for Sudan has produced a follow-up to its February investigation into atrocities by the Rapid Defense Forces (RSF) in El Fasher, finding at least three of the "material crimes" of genocide "overwhelmingly present." After a prolonged siege, the UAE-backed paramilitary army launched an October 2025 assault on El Fasher, which was the last major Darfur city where the Sudanese army and allied forces were in control. Since the February publication, the mission said it has received new information, especially on the abduction and mass rape of women and girls. It says survivors were raped by RSF forces in the presence of corpses, including of family members, and were targeted along ethnic lines. The mission also received new information on the high number of people—up to tens of thousands—who remain missing or unaccounted for. With the RSF planning a new assault on the North Kordofan capital, El Obeid, the mission said the same patterns are repeating, and called for the lessons of El Fasher not to be ignored. (Map: PCL)