Great Game

Africa

Somaliland and Western Sahara: forbidden symmetry

Israel has become the first country on Earth to recognize the de facto independent Republic of Somaliland, in exchange for a commitment from Somaliland to join the Abraham Accordsand recognize Israel. However, not three years ago, Israel joined the US as the only two countries on Earth to recognize Morocco’s claim to sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara—a betrayal of the occupied Sahrawi Arab people who seek an independent state. And of course both these deals constitute a betrayal of the Palestinians. Somaliland and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic should be natural allies, and instead they are being pitted against each other in the Great Power game. Yet another example of how a global divide-and-rule racket is the essence of the state system. In Episode 311 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg breaks it down. (Photo: Horn Diplomat via Wikipedia)

Africa

Sahel states launch new joint counter-insurgency force

At an air base in Bamako, Mali’s military ruler Gen. Assimi Goita presided over a ceremony marking the launch of a unified force for three Sahel states to fight the rising tide of jihadist insurgency across their borders. The move comes after the three countries—Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, all now ruled by military juntas—collectively withdrew from the West African regional bloc ECOWAS to form their own Alliance of Sahel States (AES). This new body has deepening ties to Russia, which has maintained paramilitary forces in the AES countries under the rubric of the Wagner Group or Africa Corps. These forces are increasingly accused of atrocities, with Malian refugees in Mauritania reporting rapes, beheadings and mutilation of civilians at the hands of Russian mercenaries. (Photo: Présidence de la République du Mali)

Iran

Protest wave spreads across Iran

On the third day of protests by Tehran bazaar merchants in response to the dire economic situation in Iran, the strike started to spread across the country. Shopkeepers in Isfahan, Ahvaz, Shiraz, Kermanshah and Najafabad closed their stalls and held protest gatherings, where they were joined by students who walked off university campuses. Security forces responded with multiple arrests and the use of live fire and tear-gas, with one student reported severely injured in Tehran. Protest slogans escalated beyond economic grievances, openly targeting clerical rule and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A photo of a lone protester blocking a column of police motorcycles on a Tehran freeway has gone viral, drawing comparisons to the iconic “tank man” photo from Tiananmen Square in June 1989. (Photo via Twitter)

Africa

Podcast: MAGA-fascism and the struggle in Nigeria

With his Christmas air-strikes on Nigeria, Trump is blundering into a conflict fundamentally driven by desertification related to the very climate change that he denies, and which now threatens democratic rule throughout the West African region. And while the Muslim-Christian sectarian strife that Trump hypes is a large element of the situation, the violence has gone both ways. Furthermore, making Christians the perceived beneficiaries of imperialist intervention is only likely to exacerbate the tensions and make Christians more of a target. In Episode 310 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg takes an in-depth and unsparing look. (Photo: AFRICOM via Long War Journal)

Greater Middle East

Yemen: UAE-backed southern separatist forces advance

Yemen’s separatist Southern Transitional Council, which is said to be backed by the United Arab Emirates, has been rapidly advancing through large parts of the country’s south and east, in Hadramawt, al-Mahra and Shabwa provinces. They are taking over control from groups backed by Saudi Arabia, including the Hadramawt Tribal Alliance. While all forces involved are supposed to be on the same side in a broader anti-Houthi alliance, the move is yet another reminder that Yemen’s war is not over, and that it involves a variety of actors and local grievances. (Map of Yemen before 1990 unification via Wikipedia)

Watching the Shadows

Trump Corollary: spheres of influence, white supremacy

Donald Trump’s new National Security Strategy instates a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. Like the Roosevelt Corollary of 1904, which was used to justify the “gunboat diplomacy” of that era, this new corollary openly calls for dividing the world into spheres of influence—with the Western Hemisphere assigned to the US. Russia is obviously pleased as punch over this, as it implicitly gives Moscow a free hand in Ukraine—and Putin will likely consider this an acceptable pay-off for his betrayal of Venezuela. However, China is less likely to surrender its massive investments and mega-projects in Latin America in exchange for a free hand to take over Taiwan. The document’s text on Europe is even more sinister, revealing a white supremacist agenda that looks not to Washington’s traditional allies to counter Russia, but to the continent’s Russian-backed far-right movements to counter Washington’s traditional allies. In Episode 308 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg exposes the NSS as a further step toward consolidation of a Fascist World Order. (Image: White House)

Syria

Podcast: the new Syria in the Great Game

Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa’s White House meeting with Donald Trump followed the removal of his Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from the list of designated “terrorist organizations” both at the State Department and at the UN. It also coincided with raids against ISIS by his security forces, raising the prospect of his government being invited to join the US-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. The Washington visit also came just a month after al-Sharaa’s similar trip to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow, where a deal was brokered allowing Russia to keep its military bases in Syria. Amid all this, Syria continues to see forced disappearances and other abuses targetting Druze, Alawites and Kurds—pointing to the looming threat of an ethnic or sectarian internal war. The US troop presence in Syria is largely embedded among the Kurdish forces in the east. As al-Sharaa becomes a new “anti-terrorist” partner (or proxy) for the Great Powers, will these troops be withdrawn—providing a “green light” for Damascus to attack the Kurdish autonomous zone? In Episode 305 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg weighs the risks at this critical moment in Syria’s transition process, nearly one year after the fall of the Assad dictatorship. (Image: Pixabay)

Africa

Podcast: Darfur again —a genocide foretold

Throughout the 18-month siege of El Fasher, capital of Sudan’s North Darfur state, international human rights observers had been warning that the city’s residents faced a general massacre when it eventually fell to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Yet nothing was done, apart from ineffectual Great Power diplomacy that had zero impact on the ground. Now that the foretold massacre is underway—with hundreds killed, thousands missing, and no end in sight—calls are at last emerging for boycott, divestment and sanctions against the United Arab Emirates, the apparent underwriter of the genocidal RSF. In Episode 302 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg notes the contrast with the situation 20 years ago, when #SaveDarfur was a cause célèbre—and asks what has changed. (Photo: Roman Deckert via Wikimedia Commons)

Afghanistan

Fighting breaks out along Durand Line

According to reports in Pakistan’s media, the Afghan Taliban and affiliated militants launched an attack from the Afghan side of the border, killing at least 23 Pakistani troops and injuring some 30 others. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar stated that troops responded to cross-border raids by “Fitna-e-Khawarij and Fitna-e-Hindustan terrorist elements.” This appears to be a reference to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which Islamabad accuses the Afghan Taliban of providing sanctuary to. In contrast, a statement from Hamdullah Fitrat, spokesman for the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, said that conditions on the “imaginary line” with Pakistan are under control. Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have been fraught with tension, especially around the disputed Durand Line border. Established in 1893 between British India and Afghanistan, this border has never been officially recognized by any Afghan government since the partition of India in 1947, leading to a persistent territorial dispute. (Map: Google)

Planet Watch

Bolivia, Syria & the challenge of plurinationalism

The recent political reversal in Bolivia raises the question of whether the advances of nearly 20 years of rule by the indigenist left will survive—including a constitution that refounded the state as a “plurinational” republic. In Episode 299 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg explores how the lessons of the Bolivian experience can be applied to Syria, where the new revolutionary government faces a challenge in Kurdish and Druze demands for regional autonomy. (Photo: Aymara march in Oruro, Bolivia. Via Wikipedia)

Africa

Sudan: ‘roadmap’ to peace —amid escalation to genocide

After months of US-led negotiations, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (the “Quad“) issued a “roadmap to peace” in Sudan, starting with a push for a three-month “humanitarian truce.” However, despite the agreement with the main regional backers of the two sides in the war, fighting continues between the Sudanese armed forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Since the “roadmap” was announced, the RSF has continued to close its ring around El Fasher, the besieged capital of North Darfur state. UN officials have condemned the assault and warned of catastrophic consequences for civilians under siege, facing severe shortages of food, clean water, and medical services. When the RSF offensive was launched earlier this year, a coalition of aid organizations and human rights groups issued a statement finding: “Genocide and atrocity crimes are being committed now in North Darfur. The RSF is engaged in the mass killing of civilians and will likely continue this if/when they reach El Fasher.” (Map via Radio Tamazuj)

Syria

Syria: clashes follow al-Sharaa ultimatum to SDF

Fighting broke out in the village of Um Tineh, in Syria’s Aleppo province, between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and forces aligned with the Damascus regime, leaving at least seven civilians dead. The SDF said the clashes began with a drone attack on the village, followed by artillery bombardment, damaging local homes. The violence came three days after President Ahmed al-Sharaa warned that the SDF’s failure to integrate into the Syrian Armed Forces could provoke Turkish military intervention by year’s end. Planned talks in Paris on how to incorporate the Kurdish autonomous zone into the new government were broken off by the transitional regime last month. Turkey has repeatedly bombed SDF-held territory in Syria over the past months, as the threat of Arab-Kuridsh ethnic war looms larger on the ground. (Photo: SOHR)