Great Game

Africa

Russian ‘fingerprints’ on Sudan coup attempt

As fighting continues in Sudan, derailing a transition to democratic rule that was slated for this month, commentators note Russia’s connection to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that sparked the crisis by attempting a coup d’etat. The Kremlin’s notorious mercenary force, the Wagner Group, is said to be engaged in illegal gold mining operations in Darfur and Kordofan regions in collaboration with the RSF. Operations at a Wagner-protected mine owned by RSF warlord Mohammed Hamdan Dagolo AKA “Hemeti” in the Nuba Mountains of South Kordofan have sparked protests by locals over land-grabbing and pollution. The arrangement points to a Kremlin-backed design to make the RSF economically independent of the Sudanese state in preparation for a seizure of power. (Photo via Dabanga Radio)

Europe

Podcast: Belarus and nuclear escalation

In Episode 167 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg examines Putin’s plans to place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. The Russian strongman’s dubious justification for the move is the UK’s decision to supply depleted uranium shells to Ukraine. Depleted uranium is indeed sinister stuff—but Russia itself has been already using DU weapons in Ukraine for over a year now! Russia’s reckless occupation of the Zaporizhzhia power plant also represents a far more serious escalation on the ladder of nuclear terror than the use of DU. Putin further claims he is merely countering the NATO tactical nuclear weapons stationed in Europe. But NATO’s warheads are stored in underground vaults, to be loaded onto plane-dropped gravity bombs if the Alliance makes a decision for their use. In contrast, Moscow has already placed nuclear-capable tactical missiles in Belarus—as well as in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, bordering NATO members Poland and Lithuania. If these were armed with warheads, it would represent a dramatic escalation in hair-trigger readiness. Additionally, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukasheno has now broached actually having Russian strategic ICBMs placed in his country. The civil opposition in Belarus has been effectively crushed in a wave of mass repression over the past three years—but an underground resistance movement is now emerging. This struggle finds itself on the frontline of the very question of human survival. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon. (Map via PCL Map Collection)

Africa

Oil contracts at issue in Somaliland conflict?

Fighting continues in Somalia’s northern breakaway state of Somaliland, where three administrative regions—Sool, Sanaag, and Aynaba—have taken up arms in a bid to rejoin the internationally recognized Mogadishu government. Somaliland accuses the government of Ethiopia (which is officially attempting to broker a dialogue in the conflict) of intervening on the side of the re-integrationist rebels, headquartered in the town of Las Anod, Sool region. Somaliland has been effectively independent since 1991, and has seen a more stable and secular social order than the regions controlled by the Mogadishu government. But now Mogadishu is asserting its right to grant oil contracts to foreign companies within Somaliland’s territory. Local media note that the new conflict erupted just after Mogadishu announced the issuing of an exploration lease to Turkish Genel Energy in Somaliland—indeed, within Aynaba, one of the contested regions. The move was protested as “illegal” by the Somaliland government, based in the city of Hargeisa. (Map: Siirski via Ethiopia Insight)

Syria

Syria: reject ‘normalization’ of Assad regime

Syrian dictator Bashar Assad arrived in the United Arab Emirates for an official visit—another advance in the attempt to normalize his genocidal regime. The trip was accompanied by more pomp than Assad’s visit to the UAE last year, his first to an Arab state since the Syrian revolution began in March 2011. The UAE trip follows a visit to Oman last month. Days before the UAE visit, Assad was in Moscow for a meeting with Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin. In addition to voicing support for Putin’s war in Ukraine, Assad told Russia state media that he welcomes any expansion of Moscow’s military bases in Syria. Meanwhile, opposition activists held a demonstration in Idlib, within Syria’s diminished pocket of rebel control, marking the 12th anniversary of the revolution. Thousands gathered under the Free Syria flag in the city’s center, to proclaim that the revolution survives and to oppose normalization of the regime. (Photo: Syrian Revolution commemoration in Times Square, NYC. Via Syria Solidarity NYC)

Greater Middle East

Will Iran-Saudi deal end Yemen’s war?

As part of its China-brokered deal to re-establish diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, Iran has reportedly agreed to stop arming Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Officially, Tehran denies arming the rebels, who are fighting forces aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognized government—including a Saudi- and UAE-led coalition. Many have portrayed the conflict in Yemen as a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It’s actually far more complicated than that: the violence is rooted in real grievances, and political and military alliances are also at play at a much more local level. Powerful Yemeni actors—all vying for a stake in the country’s future—have been left out of official peace talks. (Map via University of Texas)

Greater Middle East

Podcast: Libya and Syria, 12 years later

In Episode 165 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg notes the simultaneous 12th anniversary of the start of both the NATO intervention in Libya and the Syrian revolution. The NATO intervention was at root a bid to to control the political trajectory of the Arab Revolution, and bring about a Thermidor in which Western-backed technocrats would be ascendant. The Syrian people seized back the initiative with their popular uprising against the Bashar Assad dictatorship. But, following the precedent set in Libya, the Great Powers have intervened, seeking to impose their own order—over the heads of the Syrian people. This time, however, the principal interventionist power has not been the West seeking to coopt the revolution, but Russia seeking to prop up the genocidal ancien régime. Listen on SoundCloudor via Patreon. (Photo: Daraya, 2011 via Leila’s Blog)

The Caucasus

Georgia drops ‘foreign agent’ bill after protests

Georgia’s ruling coalition agreed to withdraw a controversial “foreign agent” bill after two days of angry protests in the capital Tbilisi. The bill “On Transparency of Foreign Influence,” introduced in Parliament in February, would have required non-governmental organizations and media outlets that receive 20% or more of their annual revenue from a “foreign power” to register as “agents of foreign influence” with the Justice Ministry. (Map: PLC)

Europe

Nord Stream pipeline sabotage: rush to judgment

Ukraine is denying involvement in September’s attack on the Nord Stream pipelines following a New York Times report citing anonymous US officials to the effect that an unnamed “pro-Ukrainian group” was to blame. Russia’s online partisans are meanwhile hyping a piece by Seymour Hersh, similarly citing anonymous officials to the effect that the attack was a US covert operation. Rarely has there been a more blatant case of the cyber-commentariat deciding what to believe on the basis of political convenience. (Map: Wikipedia)

Africa

French forces out of Burkina Faso, into Ivory Coast

France has officially ended its operations in Burkina Faso a month after the ruling junta there terminated a military accord that allowed the former colonial power to fight jihadists. French forces remain in the greater region, however. The move came as French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu visited Côte d’Ivoire, pledging to boost military support as jihadist attacks hit coastal West African states. (Map: Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection)

Syria

Unnatural disaster in Syria’s northwest

In the wake of the devastating earthquake that has killed some 15,000 in Turkey and Syria, the contested political situation in the latter country is raising particular dilemmas. Aid agencies warn of “catastrophic” implications for Syria’s rebel-controlled northwest, where millions of displaced and vulnerable people were already in precarious straits and relying on humanitarian support before the quake. At least half of the estimated 2,000 dead in Syria are in the rebel-controlled area. Due to Russian influence at the UN on behalf of the Bashar Assad regime, humanitarian access is already limited to one border crossing—Bab al-Hawa. And Moscow and Damascus have been pressuring to close that one as well. (Photo: UNHCR)

Africa

Podcast: West Africa’s forgotten wars

In Episode 161 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg provides an overview of the under-reported conflicts in West Africa, where government forces and allied paramilitary groups battle multiple jihadist insurgencies affiliated either with ISIS or al-Qaeda on a franchise model. Horrific massacres have been committed by both sides, but the Western media have only recently started to take note because of the geopolitical angle that has emerged: both Mali and Burkina Faso have cut long-standing security ties with France, the former colonial power, and brought in mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner Group. In both countries, the pastoralist Fulani people have been stigmatized as “terrorists” and targeted for extra-judicial execution and even massacre—a potentially pre-genocidal situation. But government air-strikes on Fulani communities in Nigeria have received no coverage in the Western media, because of the lack of any geopolitical rivalry there; Nigeria remains firmly in the Anglo-American camp. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon. (Photo: Sahara Reporters)

Africa

Massacres mount in eastern DRC

Fighters from the ISIS-aligned Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and the CODECO ethnic miitia have each carried out multiple massacres of villagers in Ituri and North Kivu provinces of the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo over the past weeks. The M23 rebel group, said to be backed by Rwanda, has meanwhile captured new territory in North Kivu, further closing the ring around Goma, the largest city in the DRC’s east. Regional tensions rose after Rwanda fired on a Congolese fighter jet, claiming it had breached its airspace. Kinshasa denied the accusation and called the shooting “an act of war.” (Map: CIA)