peace initiatives

Greater Middle East

Yemen’s imperfect truce expires

Yemen’s nationwide truce expired, as warring parties failed to agree on terms for a renewal. With each side blaming the other for the failure and negotiations ongoing to find common ground, there’s concern that fighting will erupt again on familiar front lines, such as the central province of Marib and the southwestern city of Taiz. While gunfire and shelling never completely stopped over the past six months—in some places it got worse—the truce did offer some respite for Yemenis who have suffered through seven and a half years of war. Roads to besieged Taiz didn’t open up, and food prices continued to soar, but there were some serious diplomatic wins—such as the reopening of Sanaa airport and an easing of the blockade on the port of Hodeida. (Map via University of Texas)

Africa

Eritrea in mass mobilization for Tigray offensive

More than a month after renewed clashes broke out in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, there are few signs of de-escalation. New air-strikes hit Tigray’s capital of Mekelle, while the region’s ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), accused Eritrea of launching a full-scale offensive in support of the Ethiopian government. There are reports that Eritrea (which has a historical enmity against the TPLF) is mobilizing army reservists, with notices handed out in Asmara, the capital. The return to combat came after a five-month truce that saw back-channel meetings between Mekelle and Addis Ababa but no formal talks. The risk that fresh fighting poses to civilians was underscored by UN investigators, who submitted their first report on the two-year conflict, accusing Ethiopia’s government of war crimes in Tigray, and of using starvation as a counterinsurgency tool. (Map: Political Geography Now)

Africa

South Sudan factionalism sparks new displacement

Four years ago this month, South Sudanese leaders signed a peace agreement that was supposed to end the country’s devastating civil war. Today, thousands are again fleeing their homes as disagreements between military-political elites spark renewed violence. The latest clashes stem from internal tensions between factions of the SPLA-IO, the country’s main opposition movement which is also a member of the transitional government. The conflict pits forces aligned to Simon Gatwech (a member of the Lou Nuer community) against fighters led by Johnson Olony (a prominent leader in the Shilluk community). Last week, Nuer fighters attacked a group of Shilluk at a displacement camp on Adidiang Island, in Upper Nile state, causing hundreds of injuries and reported drownings. (Map: Perry-Castañeda Library)

Africa

Attacks, displacement in post-coup Burkina Faso

When mutinous soldiers ousted Burkina Faso’s democratically elected president in late January, they vowed to do a better job of securing the Sahelian country from attacks linked to al-Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State. But violence has only increased over the past months, draining public confidence in the junta, threatening coastal West African states, and worsening a humanitarian crisis that has now displaced almost two million people–around one in 10 Burkinabé. (Photo: Sam Mednick/TNH)

Africa

Belated peace-building landmark in South Sudan

A graduation ceremony saw the first batch of fighters integrated into South Sudan’s unified national army—a key part of the peace deal signed in 2018. More than 20,000 troops (including former rebels) were told by President Salva Kiir that they now represent the South Sudanese people (rather than rival military parties). Graduation was initially planned for 2019, but stalled along with much of the peace deal. Delays meant the post-war transition—due to end next year—was extended by the government. Kiir said the two-year extension was necessary to avoid rushed elections and relapse into civil war. The president blamed funding gaps and climate disasters for the hold-up. Donors blamed the government. UN experts say the peace process has itself become a motor for violence, as factions vie to position themselves for the transition. (Photo via AIIA)

Africa

Senegal: peace process with Casamance rebels

The concluding of a peace agreement between Senegal and separatist rebels in Casamance is being hailed by the government as “an important step” toward ending the 40-year conflict in the southern region. The deal was signed in neighboring Guinea-Bissau by a delegate from President Macky Sall’s administration and Cesar Atoute Badiate, leader of the Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (MFDC). The long-simmering conflict was re-ignited in 2021 when the Senegalese army launched a major offensive against the rebels. But Seydi Gassama, director of Amnesty International Senegal, noted that the MFDC is now but one of several rebel factions. “The negotiations must expand to include these factions so that a peace deal can be quickly signed with all the factions and peace can be established throughout all of Casamance,” Gassama said. (Map: PCL Map Collection)

Africa

Sudan: regime spurring ethnic violence?

Fighting between Hausa and Berta tribespeople broke out in Sudan’s Blue Nile state, leaving dozens dead. While the clashes apparently began in a land dispute, tensions were elevated following calls to recognize a chiefdom for the Hausa people, who originate from Nigeria but have been settling lands in the region for generations. Authorities have imposed a curfew and mobilized the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to the state, ostensibly to restore calm. But the Forces for Freedom & Changes (FFC) opposition coalition accused the military of instigating the conflict by encouraging Hausa demands to establish a chiefdom in territory traditionally inhabited by the Hamaj, a clan of the Berta people. Before a 2020 peace deal, many Hausa served in paramilitary forces to help the regime fight the SPLM-N rebels. “The FFC hold the coup authority fully responsible for the successive renewal of these events,” the opposition group said in a statement. (Map: Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection)

Africa

Tentative peace talks for Ambazonia

After three years of conflict, a tentative peace process is underway between the Cameroon government and rebels demanding independence for the country’s western anglophone regions. Cameroon is majority francophone, and its Northwest and Southwest regions complain that they have been deliberately marginalized by the central government in Yaounde. What began as a protest movement calling for federalism degenerated into fighting and a demand for full independence after the government clamped down on the movement. The conflict has since killed more than 3,000 people, and forced over 900,000 from their homes. The security forces have been accused of widespread human right abuses—as have, to a lesser extent, the rebel forces fighting for an independent “Ambazonia.” (Map: TNH)

The Andes

Podcast: the forgotten war in Colombia

In Episode 128 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg provides an in-depth analysis of the under-reported multi-sided armed conflict and deepening human rights crisis in Colombia on the eve of an historic run-off election that poses two “outsider” candidates for the presidency: Gustavo Petro, an ex-guerilla and Colombia’s first leftist presidential contender, versus Rodolfo Hernández, a far-right construction magnate whose pugnacious swagger inevitably invites comparison to Donald Trump. This turning point comes as Colombia has entered a new “partnership” with NATO, in response to Venezuela’s deepening ties with Russia. Yet Colombia’s armed forces continue to collaborate with the paramilitary groups that terrorize campesino and indigenous communities. If elected, Petro will face the challenge of breaking the state-paramilitary nexus, and charting a course independent of the Great Powers. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon. (Photo: Contagio Radio)

The Andes

Multi-sided warfare across Colombia

Despite a peace process that has faltered under President Ivan Duque, the internal war in Colombia continues nearly across the country—now involving multiple armed actors: remnant guerilla groups, resurgent paramilitary forces, regional cartels, and the official security forces. Thousands have been displaced in recent months, as campesino and indigenous communities are either caught in the crossfire or explicitly targeted. (Photo: INDEPAZ via Contagio Radio)

The Andes

Protest closing of ICC Colombia investigation

A coalition of Colombian human rights groups and survivors’ organizations released a statement decrying as “shocking” the decision by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to close its preliminary examination of possible war crimes carried out in the country. The statement, jointly issued by the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) and the José Alvear Restrepo Lawyers’ Collective (CAJAR), said that closure of the examination “could mean that hundreds or thousands of victims of crimes under the jurisdiction of the ICC will be deprived of knowing the truth and obtaining justice concerning the crimes committed. In Colombia…there is still a systematic absence of investigation of those responsible at the highest levels for crimes under the jurisdiction of the ICC.” (Photo: Prensa Rural)

The Andes

Colombia: pending presidency ‘between two populisms’

Following a first round of presidential elections, “between two populisms” is the catchphrase being used by Colombia’s media for an unprecedented moment. A pair of political “outsiders” are to face each other in the run-off: Gustavo Petro, a former guerilla leader and Colombia’s first leftist presidential contender, versus Rodolfo Hernández, a construction magnate whose pugnacious swagger inevitably invites comparison to Donald Trump. Hernández, an independent candidate and the former mayor of Bucaramanga, rose precipitously in an ostensibly anti-establishment campaign driven by social media, winning him the epithet “King of TikTok.” But Colombia’s political establishment is now lining up behind him to defeat Petro. The former mayor of Bogotá and a veteran of the demobilized M-19 guerillas, Petro is the candidate of a new progressive coalition, Colombia Humana, emphasizing multiculturalism and ecology as well as more traditional social justice demands. (Photo via Twitter)