Tag: World War 5

Syria

Russian naval build-up ahead of Idlib offensive

The Russian Ministry of Defense released a statement explaining its unprecedented build-up of naval force in the Mediterranean as part of a week-long exercise would begin on 1 September. It said the exercise would involve 26 warships and naval vessels, including two submarines, with 34 aircraft, including missile-armed long-range bombers. But it is obvious that this build-up is timed to coincide (at least) with the planned Assad regime offensive on Idlib, the last Syrian province that remains under opposition control. Russia will certainly be massively backing the regime offensive, which the UN warns could spark a humanitarian catastrophe. With Turkey closing its borders to new refugees, it is unclear that civilians have any place left to flee. Many are already living in camps in Idlib under desperate conditions, with two million in need of humanitarian aid. (Photo: Syria News)

Syria

Syria endgame: whither Idlib?

With the fall of Syria’s southern province of Daraa to Assad regime forces, only Idlib in the north remains as a last pocket of opposition control. The besieged rebel forces there are anticipating a final offensive by Assad and his Russian backers. But a complicating factor is that Turkey is occupying areas of Idlib, which means an offensive there threatens international escalation. Speaking to reporters before heading for a summit of emerging market countries in South Africa, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would speak there with Vladimir Putin about how to resolve “the issue of Idlib.” This points to a possible carve-up deal, in which the bulk of Syria falls under Assad with Russian protection, Idlib remains under rebel control with Turkish protection, and the northeastern Rojava region will remain a Kurdish autonomous zone under US protection. (Photo: Syria News)

Syria

Raqqa ‘annihilation’ reveals Kurdish contradiction

A new Amnesty International report accuses the US of “war crimes” in the bombardment of Raqqa, and the virtual “annihilation” of the city. The fact that the US-led bombardment was in support of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in their campaign to take the city from ISIS has contributed to pitting Kurd against Arab and brought northern Syria closer to ethnic war. Ironically (if predictably), now that the Syrian Kurds have served their purpose in defeating ISIS, Washington is about to kick them overboard—just as Assad and Erdogan alike are preparing offensives against them. (Photo: SDF)

Syria

Syria: gas attacks, air-strikes and hypocrisy —again

Just over a year after Trump’s air-strikes on an Assad regime airbase in response to a chemical attack, we witness a repeat of this episode—although this time the air-strikes were on wider targets, and carried out in conjunction with British and French forces. In response to last week’s chemical attack on Douma in Syria’s besieged Eastern Ghouta enclave, missiles and warplanes from the USS Donald Cook in the eastern Mediterranean carried out the first Western strikes on targets around the Damascus area. The targets were chemical warfare and military facilities, with no deaths or civilian casualties yet reported. “Anti-war” hypocrites who were silent during Trump’s massive bombardment of civilians in Raqqa and Mosul, silent during the Assad-Purtin destruction of Aleppo, and silent (at best) over the Douma chemical attack, are now protesting air-strikes on Assad’s machinery of death. Such “anti-war” depravity is part of the problem. (Image: Syria Solidarity NYC)

East Asia
South China Sea

Brink looms closer in East Asia maritime theaters

Japan has activated its first amphibious marine unit since World War II, which conducted practice drills to defend the disputed Senkaku Islands from an anticipated Chinese military seizure. Meanwhile, the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier, with a group of Philippine generals onboard, entered disputed waters in the South China Sea, where China is building military defenses on islands claimed by the Philippines and Vietnam. Another carrier, the USS Carl Vinson, patrolled the contested waters last month, taking part in anti-submarine drills with Japanese forces and visiting Vietnam with its 5,000-strong crew—the largest such US military presence there since the Vietnam War ended in 1975. (Map via IDSA)

Syria

Afrin and Ghouta: fearful symmetry

The imminent fall of rebel-held Ghouta to Russian-backed Assad regime forces approaches just after the fall of Kurdish-held Afrin to Turkish-backed rebel forces. As Arab and Kurd are pitted against each other, the Great Powers carve up Syria. But both sides are preparing to advance on Idlib next. Even as Trump talks of getting the US out of Syria, potential builds for a superpower confrontation.  (Photo of Aleppo ruins from UNHCR)

Syria

Tragedy: Rojava Kurds close ranks with Assad

In a political tragedy that bodes more poorly than ever for any eventual return of peace to Syria, Assad regime forces joined the Kurdish militia defending the northern enclave of Afrin from Turkish aggression. This obviously heightens the threat of Arab-Kurdish ethnic war, as the regime continues its savage bombardment of rebel-held Idlib and Ghouta. And with the entry of regime forces into Afrin, there is now risk of NATO member Turkey directly engaging Assad’s troops, with obvious threat of international escalation. Of course, with Orwellian irony, Ankara is calling the offensive Operation “Olive Branch.”  (Photo: BasNews)

Planet Watch
doomsday

Doomsday Clock: two minutes of midnight

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists advanced the minute hand of its Doomsday Clock to two minutes of midnight from its previous two-and-a-half minutes. "In 2017, world leaders failed to respond effectively to the looming threats of nuclear war and climate change, making the world security situation more dangerous than it was a year ago—and as dangerous as it has been since World War II," the Bulletin said. Finding that the "greatest risks last year arose in the nuclear realm," the statement of course cited the crisis over North Korea's atomic weapons program, but also ongoing military exercises along the borders of NATO, upgrading of nuclear arsenals by the US and Russia, tensions over the South China Sea, a nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan, and uncertainty about continued US support for the Iran nuclear deal. These threats are worsened by "a breakdown in the international order that has been dangerously exacerbated by recent US actions." (Image: misucell.com)

Europe
Ukraine

US anti-tank missiles to Ukraine: why now?

The US has approved the sale of $47 million worth of anti-tank guided missiles to Ukraine, for use against Russia's "volunteer" mechanized units in the breakaway Donbass region.  While the news was of course met with glee in Keiv, Russia's Foreign Ministry warned that Washington has "crossed a line." Is this to be read as a White House green light for Ukraine to re-escalate the war and launch a new offensive for the Donbass? Or is it just a propaganda move by Trump to shake the perception that he is "Putin's puppet"? (Map: CIA)

Syria

Further internationalization of Syrian war

Turkey sends more troops into Syria to fight jihadist factions in Idlib province, while Russia delivers more missiles to its military base at Tartus, and the US steps up bombardment of Raqqa in support of Kurdish forces in their drive to take the city from ISIS. Can these multiple foreign forces avoid attacking each other, even if accidentally, and sparking a wider war beyond Syria’s borders?

Syria

Trump and Putin team up to destroy Syria

As ISIS-held Raqqa is bombed into ruins by US forces, rebel-held Idlib is suffering the same fate under Russian and Assad regime warplanes. Civilian casualties are fast mounting in both enclaves. The twin aerial campaigns come just as Trump has cut off aid to the Free Syrian Army, indicating that the long-anticipated imperial carve-up of Syria is now well underway.

Syria

Syria: Russia denies bombing Kurdish forces

With Russian-backed Assad regime forces advancing on the ISIS-held city of Deir ez-Zor from the west and Kurdish forces advancing from the east, a breaking point appears to be approaching in the Kurds’ own tactical alliance with Moscow. Now, with reports that Russian warplanes bombed Kurdish positions outside the city, this breaking point may have arrived. And US advisors are embedded in the Kurdish units, holding the risk of escalation to a global conflict.