Great Game

Europe

Russia withdraws from Conventional Forces Treaty

In a declaration signed by President Vladimir Putin, Russia announced its withdrawal from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, the 1990 pact hailed as the “cornerstone of European security.” The treaty limits the contracting parties, including most European powers and the United States, to no more than 20,000 tanks, 20,000 artillery units, 30,000 armored vehicles, 6,800 warplanes and 2,000 attack helicopters. This marks a further development in Russia’s divergence from international norms since launching its war in Ukraine. This February, exactly a year since the start of the invasion, Moscow announced its withdrawal from the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last remaining nuclear arms pact between Russia and the US. (Image: Vitaly Kuzmin via CBRNPro.net)

Syria

Syria: regime ‘normalization’ —amid war and hunger

At a closed meeting in Cairo, Arab League foreign ministers approved a measure to readmit Syria after more than a decade of suspension—a critical victory for the normalization of Bashar Assad’s genocidal regime. This diplomatic coup, however, cannot mask the reality that Syria’s war is not over. Assad may have retaken most of the country, but various rebel and Kurdish forces still control much of the north. Civilians are still being killed in shelling and other violence. Even before earthquakes devastated large parts of northern Syria three months ago, continuing conflict and a debilitating economic crisis meant deepening hunger. Humanitarian needs in Syria were already at a record high. But amid mounting global crises, the UN-coordinated appeal for Syria in 2023 is only eight percent funded. And food prices are still rising, making it harder still for aid groups to meet the urgent and growing needs of millions of Syrians. (Photo: Giovanni Diffidenti/UNICEF via UN News)

Africa

Podcast: Russia and the Sudan crisis II

In Episode 172 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg continues to document Russian support for the attempted coup that plunged Sudan into crisis and derailed a scheduled transition to civilian rule last month—as well as ongoing Russian armed support to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the paramilitary faction that led the attempted coup and is now battling for control of the country. CNN and Deutsche Welle have reported claims of Russian weapons drops to the RSF, even as the UN pleads with the warring factions to come to the table. The RSF and Moscow’s Wagner Group mercenary outfit have established a power base in Sudan through their joint control of mineral resources in Darfur and Kordofan—even as they put down the self-determination struggle of these regions’ indigenous peoples. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon. (Photo of RSF forces in Darfur via Sudan Tribune)

Africa

Podcast: is Russia behind the Sudan crisis?

In Episode 171 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg examines the Russian fingerprints on the attempted coup d’etat in Sudan that has plunged the country into crisis—and derailed a transition to civilian rule that was to have taken place in April under terms of a deal between the ruling junta and pro-democracy opposition. The coup attempt was led by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which was to have been absorbed into the official armed forces under terms of the transition deal. The RSF has been closely collaborating with Russian mercenary outfit the Wagner Group—especially in semi-legal gold-mining operations in Darfur and Kordofan regions. The Wagner Group appears to be operating a death squad to eliminate rival and independent gold prospectors in these regions. The arrangement points to a Kremlin-backed design to make the RSF economically independent of the Sudanese state in preparation for an eventual seizure of power. Russian plans for Moscow’s first military base in Africa, at Port Sudan, could have been jeopardized by the transition to democratic rule. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon. (Map: PCL)

Europe

Putin design to rebuild Russian Empire: blatanter and blatanter

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia reacted with outrage after China’s ambassador in Paris appeared to question the sovereignty not only of Ukraine, but all the former Soviet republics, saying they “do not have an effective status in international law.” Fearing diplomatic censure, Beijing’s Foreign Ministry backpedalled, releasing a statement saying: “China respects the sovereign status of former Soviet republics ” But such sentiments are fast gaining an alarming currency in Russian political circles. A commentator for pro-Kremlin newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda opined that “according to the Ukrainian scenario, we have an historical right” to Russian-inhabited lands of Kazakhstan. Former president Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, tweeted a call for Ukraine to “DISAPPEAR” (in caps), and referred to the country as “Malorossiya” (Little Russia)—a term from the empire of the czars for territories outside Great Russia (Russia proper). (Photo: Wikipedia)

Central Asia

Alphabet at issue in Great Game for Central Asia

Russia restricted imports from Kyrgyzstan—apparently in retaliation after the Kyrgyz National Commission on State Language announced a transition from Cyrillic to a Latin-based alphabet. The move to switch the script also appears not to have the support of Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, who is said to have met with language commision chair Kanybek Osmonaliev to “harshly criticize” him for the announcement. While Japarov is perceived as tilting to Moscow, there are evidently divisions within his government. The other Central Asian states are already in the process of dropping Cyrillic for Latin, much to the dismay of Moscow. (Photo of Kyrgyz State University of Arabaev: Wikipedia)

Africa

Wagner Group ‘plots’ against Chad: leaked documents

The Washington Post reports that among the classified documents leaked by Massachusetts Air National Guard member Jack Teixeira are findings from an unnamed US intelligence agency that Russia’s paramilitary Wagner Group is seeking to recruit rebels to destabilize the government of Chad. One document states that Wagner is working to establish a training camp for hundreds of fighters across the border in the Central African Republic as part of an “evolving plot to topple the Chadian government.” The documents detail a discussion in February between Wagner leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin and his associates about the timeline and logistics for training an initial group of rebels at Avakaba, CAR, close to the Chadian border. This is portrayed as part of a larger design to create a “unified ‘confederation’ of African states” in Moscow’s orbit. (Map: Wikivoyage)

Europe

Podcast: propaganda & the de-Finlandization of Finland

In Episode 170 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg predicts that Russian propaganda weaponization of World War II history, now being employed against Ukraine, will next be used to target Finland. Now that Finland has been “de-Finlandized,” abandoning its Cold War neutrality to join NATO, its de facto wartime alliance with Nazi Germany is likely to be exploited by the Kremlin media machine—exactly as Israel exploits the wartime pact between Hitler and the Mufti of Jerusalem. In a pre-emptive strike against such propaganda, Weinberg breaks down the history of Russian conquest and colonization of Finland, the heroic resistance of the Finns in the Winter War of 1939-40, and how their betrayal manipulated them into the Nazi camp in the Continuation War of 1941-44. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon. (Photo of Finnish defensive line in Winter War via Wikipedia)

Africa

Russian ‘fingerprints’ on Sudan coup attempt

As fighting continues in Sudan, derailing a transition to democratic rule that was slated for this month, commentators note Russia’s connection to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that sparked the crisis by attempting a coup d’etat. The Kremlin’s notorious mercenary force, the Wagner Group, is said to be engaged in illegal gold mining operations in Darfur and Kordofan regions in collaboration with the RSF. Operations at a Wagner-protected mine owned by RSF warlord Mohammed Hamdan Dagolo AKA “Hemeti” in the Nuba Mountains of South Kordofan have sparked protests by locals over land-grabbing and pollution. The arrangement points to a Kremlin-backed design to make the RSF economically independent of the Sudanese state in preparation for a seizure of power. (Photo via Dabanga Radio)

Europe

Podcast: Belarus and nuclear escalation

In Episode 167 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg examines Putin’s plans to place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. The Russian strongman’s dubious justification for the move is the UK’s decision to supply depleted uranium shells to Ukraine. Depleted uranium is indeed sinister stuff—but Russia itself has been already using DU weapons in Ukraine for over a year now! Russia’s reckless occupation of the Zaporizhzhia power plant also represents a far more serious escalation on the ladder of nuclear terror than the use of DU. Putin further claims he is merely countering the NATO tactical nuclear weapons stationed in Europe. But NATO’s warheads are stored in underground vaults, to be loaded onto plane-dropped gravity bombs if the Alliance makes a decision for their use. In contrast, Moscow has already placed nuclear-capable tactical missiles in Belarus—as well as in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, bordering NATO members Poland and Lithuania. If these were armed with warheads, it would represent a dramatic escalation in hair-trigger readiness. Additionally, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukasheno has now broached actually having Russian strategic ICBMs placed in his country. The civil opposition in Belarus has been effectively crushed in a wave of mass repression over the past three years—but an underground resistance movement is now emerging. This struggle finds itself on the frontline of the very question of human survival. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon. (Map via PCL Map Collection)

Africa

Oil contracts at issue in Somaliland conflict?

Fighting continues in Somalia’s northern breakaway state of Somaliland, where three administrative regions—Sool, Sanaag, and Aynaba—have taken up arms in a bid to rejoin the internationally recognized Mogadishu government. Somaliland accuses the government of Ethiopia (which is officially attempting to broker a dialogue in the conflict) of intervening on the side of the re-integrationist rebels, headquartered in the town of Las Anod, Sool region. Somaliland has been effectively independent since 1991, and has seen a more stable and secular social order than the regions controlled by the Mogadishu government. But now Mogadishu is asserting its right to grant oil contracts to foreign companies within Somaliland’s territory. Local media note that the new conflict erupted just after Mogadishu announced the issuing of an exploration lease to Turkish Genel Energy in Somaliland—indeed, within Aynaba, one of the contested regions. The move was protested as “illegal” by the Somaliland government, based in the city of Hargeisa. (Map: Siirski via Ethiopia Insight)

Syria

Syria: reject ‘normalization’ of Assad regime

Syrian dictator Bashar Assad arrived in the United Arab Emirates for an official visit—another advance in the attempt to normalize his genocidal regime. The trip was accompanied by more pomp than Assad’s visit to the UAE last year, his first to an Arab state since the Syrian revolution began in March 2011. The UAE trip follows a visit to Oman last month. Days before the UAE visit, Assad was in Moscow for a meeting with Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin. In addition to voicing support for Putin’s war in Ukraine, Assad told Russia state media that he welcomes any expansion of Moscow’s military bases in Syria. Meanwhile, opposition activists held a demonstration in Idlib, within Syria’s diminished pocket of rebel control, marking the 12th anniversary of the revolution. Thousands gathered under the Free Syria flag in the city’s center, to proclaim that the revolution survives and to oppose normalization of the regime. (Photo: Syrian Revolution commemoration in Times Square, NYC. Via Syria Solidarity NYC)