Great Game

Africa

Ethiopia: Eritrean forces still in Tigray?

Eritrea lodged a diplomatic protest with the United Kingdom after the British ambassador to Ethiopia publicly called “for Eritrean forces to withdraw completely back to their own borders.” Eritrean forces intervened in support of Ethiopia’s federal government during the two-year war in northern Tigray region, but supposedly withdrew after last year’s ceasefire. Asmara’s diplomatic statement decried “unwarranted remarks” by the ambassador, without explicitly stating that it no longer has forces in Tigray. A day earlier, the UK Minister of State for Development & Africa issued a finding that “Eritrean forces remaining in Tigray present an obstacle to the overall objective of peace and stability within the region.” The controversy comes 10 months after a formal ceasefire in Tigray that has led to a reduction of violence in the region, although rights abuses and a humanitarian crisis persist, exacerbated by a devastating drought. (Map: Political Geography Now)

Africa

Podcast: flashpoint Niger

In Episode 186 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg examines the coup d’etat in Niger, which now threatens to plunge West Africa into regional war—with potential for escalation involving the Great Powers. Lines are drawn, with the Western-backed ECOWAS demanding the junta cede power, and Russian-backed Mali and Burkina Faso backing the junta up. Pro-junta demonstrators in Niger’s capital, Niamey, wave the Russian flag—probably to express displeasure at US and French neo-colonialism. The Wagner Group, which already has troops in Mali and Burkina Faso, has expressed its support for the junta, and offered fighters to help stabilize the regime. Elements of the tankie pseudo-left in the West are similarly rallying around the junta. Amid this, leaders of the Tuareg resistance in Niger have returned to arms to resist the new regime, and the country’s mine workers union is also demanding a return to democratic rule. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon. (Map: PCL)

Africa

Russia’s grain-for-influence gambit

Russian President Vladimir Putin has pledged free grain to six African nations. The announcement comes one week after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal, triggering a spike in global prices. Opening the Africa-Russian summit in St. Petersburg, Putin promised to send 25,000 to 50,000 tons of free grain to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Central African Republic, and Eritrea. The countries are among Moscow’s closest allies on the continent, but they are not all the most food-import dependent. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that a “handful of donations” would not correct the market impact of Russia’s termination of the year-long deal, which had cut cereal prices by more than one third. The African Union echoed Guterres’ criticism. (Photo: Wikipedia)

Africa

Military coup d’etat consolidated in Niger

Niger’s national broadcaster identified Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani as president of the country’s new military government following a coup that deposed elected President Mohamed Bazoum. The country’s new ruling junta, called the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland, was formed out of Niger’s presidential guard, which carried out the coup. The AU, EU, US and Russia have all condemned the coup as unconstitutional. However, Wagner Group commander Yevgeni Prigozhin lauded the coup as part of “the struggle of the people of Niger [against] their colonizers,” and and offered his fighters’ services to bring order. Pro-coup protesters in Niger have been photographed with Russian flags. (Map: PCL)

North Africa

Abraham Accords’ betrayal of Sahrawi consolidated

Israel announced that it has formally recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara. The US in 2021 became the first nation to recognize Morocco’s claim to the territory—an open quid pro quo for Moroccan recognition of Israel as a part of the so-called Abraham Accords. Israeli recognition of Morocco’s claim was promised at that time. However, much of the territory is controlled by the Polisario Front, independence movement of the Sahrawi Arab people. Some 45 countries around the world recognize Polisario’s declared Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR); the US and Israel are alone in recognizing Rabat’s rule over the territory. (Image: Wikimedia Commons)

Syria

Syria: grim reality behind Assad’s new aid offer

The Security Council has failed to renew the resolution allowing the UN to deliver aid across the border from Turkey to rebel-held northwest Syria, throwing into question the future of a relief effort that is crucial for millions of people. The day after the resolution expired, Russia vetoed a new resolution that would have allowed access through one border crossing into the region, Bab al-Hawa, for nine months. Two days after that, The Assad regime said it will allow UN aid into the northwest via Bab al-Hawa for six months—if it is done “in full cooperation and coordination with the government.” But this is unlikely to be welcomed by many Syrian and international aid groups, given that the current system was set up back in 2014 largely because of the Assad regime’s obstruction of aid. (Photo: UNHCR)

Europe

Kurds betrayed in Sweden NATO deal

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has dropped his opposition to Sweden’s entry into NATO, it was announced ahead of the alliance summit in Vilnius. In an apparent quid pro quo, the Biden administration is dropping its objections to Turkey purchasing F-16 fighter jets from the US. Sweden has also offered concessions to Erdogan. In blocking Sweden’s NATO bid, Turkey had accused Stockholm of harboring Kurdish “terrorists”—meaning supporters of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Ankara labels a “terrorist” group. Last November, Sweden amended its constitution to strengthen its “anti-terrorism” laws, weakening free-speech protections—clearly in deference to Turkey. The Swedish Supreme Court in June also ruled to allow extradition of the accused PKK figures to Turkey. And the rallies held in Stockholm against the extraditions by Kurdish immigrants and exiles may now be criminalized. (Photo of F-16: USAF via Wikimedia Commons)

Southeast Asia

Podcast: geopolitics of the Barbie affair

In Episode 181 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg discusses the strange reality that the Barbie move has been banned in Vietnam over a brief image of a world map appearing to show the “nine-dash line” demarcating China’s unilaterally claimed territory in the South China Sea. While US-China brinkmanship over Taiwan wins headlines, Beijing’s maritime dispute with Hanoi holds unsettling potential for escalation. In a surreal paradox (for those who remember their history) Vietnam has actually been tilting to the US in the new cold war with China. It has also been increasingly resorting to internal police-state measures to protect the interests of foreign capital in the country. All of this constitutes a rebuke both to the neoliberals, who cling to the discredited dogma that “free markets” inevitably lead to peace and democracy, and to the tankies, who rally around both the regimes in Beijing and Hanoi, in defiance of political reality. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon. (Map via IDSA)

Africa

Mali junta kicks out UN peacekeepers

Mali’s ruling junta has requested immediate withdrawal of the UN’s peacekeeping mission in the country, MINUSMA, citing a “crisis of confidence” and failure to deal with security challenges. The junta, in power since 2020, has sidelined various regional and international partners while forging close ties to the Russian mercenary Wagner Group. Military officials resent MINUSMA’s human rights investigations, and have severely curtailed its access and mobility. The latest move comes after the UN released a report on a massacre by Malian troops and their mercenary allies in the town of Moura. (Photo: MINUSMA)

Syria

Russia, Israel both still bombing Syria

At least 13 people, nine of them civilians, were killed in Russian air-strikes within the so-called “de-escalation zone” in northern Syria’s Idlib province, with some of the strikes hitting a crowded vegetable market. The area targeted in the raid, already suffering a severe displacement crisis, is controlled by the Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Islamist faction. Meanwhile, sporadic Israeli air-strikes on regime-held Syrian territory also continue—with apparent tacit approval from Russia, as long as they target the Iranian military presence in the country. (Photo: @SyriaCivilDef)

East Asia

UK orders closure of China-run ‘police stations’

UK Minister for Security Tom Tugendhat told Parliament that the government has ordered China to close “overseas police service stations” operating within the United Kingdom, calling the stations’ existence “unacceptable.” Tugendhat said that British authorities received reports from non-governmental organization Safeguard Defenders of such stations in Croydon, Hendon and Glasgow, with allegations of another in Belfast. The United States and Ireland both claim to have recently uncovered similar stations in their countries. Like the UK, they said the stations were used to monitor and harass Chinese diaspora communities. (Photo of Glasgow location, within restaurant storefront: Google via The Ferret)

Europe

EU action against Poland over ‘Russian influence’ law

The European Commission initiated infringement proceedings against Poland over the country’s recently-passed law aimed at officials who have allegedly come under Russian influence. The Commission says that the law “interferes with the democratic process” by potentially subjecting officials running for re-election to high-profile inquiries, effectively barring candidates from public office. The ruling right-wing Law & Justice Party (PiS) is ironically accused by the opposition of emulating Russia in seeking to impose an authoritarian regime through the subterfuge of a “Russian influence” law. Crowds at a massive Warsaw protest against the law waved the EU flag, making clear their antipathy to Russian designs on the continent. (Photo: Germany Today News)