Russia

East Asia

US shifts nuclear posture to confront China

President Biden approved in March a highly classified nuclear posture document for the first time reorienting US deterrent strategy to focus on China’s rapid expansion in its nuclear arsenal. The shift comes as the Pentagon believes China’s stockpiles will rival the size and diversity of those of the United States and Russia over the next decade. The new “Nuclear Employment Guidance” is highly classified, but a copy was just obtained by the New York Times. Beijing reacted angrily to the report. “The US is peddling the China nuclear threat narrative, finding excuses to seek strategic advantage,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry representative said. (Map: PCL)

Europe

Belarus broaches nuclear strike

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko charges that Kyiv has stationed more than 120,000 soldiers along Ukraine’s border with Belarus, and says that he is deploying military formations along his own country’s entire border with Ukraine in response. In an interview with Rossiya TV, Lukashenko accused Ukraine of attempting to provoke a nuclear strike from Russia, which has warheads deployed in Belarus. “The worry is that escalation on Ukraine’s part is an attempt to force Russia to take asymmetric actions,” Lukasheno said. “Let’s consider the usage of nuclear weapons. I am confident that Ukraine would be pleased if Russia or we utilized tactical nuclear weapons there. That would bring them joy.” (Map: PCL)

Europe

Pipeline goad of Ukraine’s Kursk incursion?

One day into their unprecedented cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast, Ukrainian forces captured the Sudzha gas metering station—a key node of the last remaining Russian pipeline still sending gas to Europe through Ukraine. The Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline, built by the Soviets in the 1980s, sends natural gas from Siberian fields through Ukraine to Slovakia, the Czech Repubic, Hungary and Austria. Despite the capture of the Sudzha station, Gazprom hasn’t halted the flow of gas through the station—nor has Ukraine shut the pipeline over the past two and a half years of war, apparently due to pressure from Europe. EU sanctions have only gradually started to affect Russia’s massive hydrocarbons sector. (Image: Soviet postage stamp celebrating the Urengoy-Uzhgorod pipeline. Via Wikipedia)

East Asia

Gaza at issue in Nagasaki commemoration

The US ambassador to Japan did not attend this year’s official commemoration of the atomic bombing of Nagasaki in protest of the city’s failure to invite Israel. Ambassador Rahm Emanuel said the event had been “politicized” by Nagasaki’s decision to exclude the Jewish state. Five other G7 countries and the EU likewise boycotted the ceremony. The municipal government in Hiroshima refused to pay heed to public calls to exclude Israel over the Gaza bombardment, and invited Israeli officials to its event as usual. Russia and Belarus were exuded from both commemorations for a third consecutive year. (Photo: Pop Japan)

Syria

Is Ukraine backing Syrian insurgents?

Ukrainian special forces under command of Kyiv’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) carried out an operation against Russian forces in Syria, according to a video released by the agency. First reported by the Kyiv Post, the raid by the “Khimik” elite unit is said to have targeted Kuweires airbase outside Aleppo, which is used by both Russian and Assad regime forces. Drone strikes followed by a ground attack are said to have destroyed a Russian “electronic warfare complex” at the base, along with other “military objects.” The report said the operation was conducted in cooperation with Syrian “insurgents,” although it didn’t make clear which faction. The strike was reportedly carried out the day after a meeting at the Kremlin between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad. In May 2023, HUR chief Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov promised to “destroy Russian war criminals anywhere in the world they may be.” (Image via Kyiv Post)

Central Asia

Russia: indigenous rights groups designated ‘extremist’

The Observatory for the Protection of Human Rights Defenders released a statement urging Russia to refrain from designating groups advocating for the rights of indigenous peoples and national minorities as “extremist organizations.” The statement follows a decision by Russian authorities a week earlier to thusly classify 55 such organizations. The Ministry of Justice cited a June ruling by Russia’s Supreme Court banning “structural divisions” of the so-called “Anti-Russian Separatist Movement,” which was defined as an “international public movement to destroy the multinational unity and territorial integrity of Russia.” Involvement in the movement may result in a sentence of up to six years in prison—despite the fact that no such movement formally exists. (Photo of Itelmen people in the Kamchatka Peninsula via Wikipedia)

Africa

Is Ukraine backing Mali insurgents?

Mali announced that it has cut diplomatic relations with Ukraine, after a Kyiv military official boasted of having aided an insurgent attack in the country’s north that left scores of government troops and Russian mercenaries dead. Andrii Yusov, spokesman for Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency, said on social media that “the rebels received necessary information, and not just information, which enabled a successful military operation against Russian war criminals.” While not saying whether Ukrainian military personnel were involved in the fighting or were present in the country, Yusov cryptically added that the GUR “won’t discuss the details at the moment, but there will be more to come.” Malian official Col. Abdoulaye Maiga said Yusov’s comments “admitted Ukraine’s involvement in a cowardly, treacherous and barbaric attack by armed terrorist groups.” (Photo: FIDES)

Africa

Mali insurgents rout Russian mercenaries

A commander of Russia’s paramilitary Africa Corps was killed along with some 50 of his fighters in an insurgent ambush amid a sandstorm in northern Mali. The attack, in Tinzaouatène district along the Algerian border, is said to be the biggest loss ever for Russian forces in Africa. However, it is unclear who carried it out, as two mutually hostile groups have claimed responsibility. “Our forces decisively obliterated these enemy columns,” said a statement by the Permanent Strategic Cadre for Peace, Security & Development (CSP-PSD), an alliance of Tuareg rebel groups fighting for independence in Mali’s north. But a separate statement by Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, also claimed sole responsibility for the attack. The Malian regime and Russian mercenaries have been fighting both groups in the region. (Map: PCL)

Watching the Shadows

Podcast: sleepwalking into fascism

With Trump gaining momentum since surviving an assassination attempt, and the Democrats demoralized and in disarray, the forces of MAGA-fascism seem poised to retake the White House—and, with Project 2025, are this time armed with the organizational wherewithal to effectively instate their program. Meanwhile, the radical left, which by rights should be the most intransigent source of anti-fascist resistance, is actually in danger of being coopted by Trumpism in a new Red-Brown alliance, lured by perceived “isolationism” and a shared antipathy to the “liberal order.” In Episode 235 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg desperately scours the American political landscape—as well as historical precedents such as Italy in the 1920s—for glimmers of hope. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon. (Photo via CEPR)

Europe

Russian playwright gets prison for ‘justifying terrorism’

A Russian military court convicted playwright Svetlana Petriychuk and theater director Yevgeniya Berkovich and sentenced them each to six years in prison over a play that was found to “justify terrorism.” The basis for the prosecution was the play Finist the Brave Falcon, its plot drawing inspiration from the plight of Russian women who went to Syria to marry Islamist fighters and were convicted upon return to their home country. Berkovich and Petrychuk repeatedly stated that their play was intended to warn against terrorism and not to justify it. In the eyes of the defense and human rights organizations, the real reason for the prosecution was retribution against the pair for their outspoken opposition to the war in Ukraine. (Photo: StageRussia)

East Asia

China and Russia launch joint naval exercise

Chinese and Russian naval forces have begun a joint exercise at a southern Chinese military port, China’s Ministry of National Defense announced. The “Maritime Joint-2024” exercise is taking place off Zhanjiang, Guangdong province, on the South China Sea. The operations encompass reconnaissance, anti-submarine warfare, anti-missile and air defense maneuvers. This naval cooperation unfolds against a backdrop of mounting tensions between China and NATO allies. At their Washington summit, NATO members designated China as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine, citing the two nations’ declared “no-holds-barred partnership” and China’s support for the Russian defense industry. (Map: Google)

Europe

Ukraine: Russian strikes hit largest children’s hospital

Russian missile attacks on Ukraine killed dozens of people, injured hundreds, and damaged the country’s largest children’s hospital, UN and Ukrainian officials announced. Numerous commercial and residential buildings were struck in the wave of strikes on cities including Dnipro, Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, Kryviy Rih and Kyiv, leading to the death of at least 36 and injuries to no less than 140 people. Kyiv’s Ohmatdyt Children’s Hospital was damaged with at least 16 injured, including children and medical staff, and two adults dead. UN Resident Coordinator in Ukraine Denise Brown stated: “It is unconscionable that children are killed and injured in this war. Under international humanitarian law, hospitals have special protection. Civilians must be protected.” (Map: PCL)