Great Game

Greater Middle East

Yemen: UAE-backed southern separatist forces advance

Yemen’s separatist Southern Transitional Council, which is said to be backed by the United Arab Emirates, has been rapidly advancing through large parts of the country’s south and east, in Hadramawt, al-Mahra and Shabwa provinces. They are taking over control from groups backed by Saudi Arabia, including the Hadramawt Tribal Alliance. While all forces involved are supposed to be on the same side in a broader anti-Houthi alliance, the move is yet another reminder that Yemen’s war is not over, and that it involves a variety of actors and local grievances. (Map of Yemen before 1990 unification via Wikipedia)

Watching the Shadows

Trump Corollary: spheres of influence, white supremacy

Donald Trump’s new National Security Strategy instates a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. Like the Roosevelt Corollary of 1904, which was used to justify the “gunboat diplomacy” of that era, this new corollary openly calls for dividing the world into spheres of influence—with the Western Hemisphere assigned to the US. Russia is obviously pleased as punch over this, as it implicitly gives Moscow a free hand in Ukraine—and Putin will likely consider this an acceptable pay-off for his betrayal of Venezuela. However, China is less likely to surrender its massive investments and mega-projects in Latin America in exchange for a free hand to take over Taiwan. The document’s text on Europe is even more sinister, revealing a white supremacist agenda that looks not to Washington’s traditional allies to counter Russia, but to the continent’s Russian-backed far-right movements to counter Washington’s traditional allies. In Episode 308 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg exposes the NSS as a further step toward consolidation of a Fascist World Order. (Image: White House)

Watching the Shadows

US instates ‘Trump Corollary’ to Monroe Doctrine

President Donald Trump’s new National Security Strategy puts the Western Hemisphere at the center of US foreign policy and revives the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, appending it with a “Trump Corollary.” The document presents the Americas as the main line of defense for the US homeland and links that doctrine directly to ongoing military operations against suspected drug traffickers in Caribbean and Pacific waters. It places the Hemisphere as the top regional priority, above Europe, the Middle East and Indo-Pacific, with an imperative of controlling migration, drug flows, and foreign influence before they can reach US territory. It also states that the US will block “non-Hemispheric competitors” from owning or controlling “strategically vital assets” in the Americas, including ports, energy facilities, and telecommunications networks. (Photo: USS Gerald R. Ford. Credit: US Navy via Wikimedia Commons)

Africa

Guinea-Bissau: narco-plot behind latest African coup?

UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the military coup in Guinea-Bissau that took place just days after national elections, saying that it gravely violates constitutional order and democratic principles. The African Union similarly condemned the coup, while the West African regional bloc ECOWAS suspended Guinea-Bissau until there is a full restoration of constitutional order. This latest military takeover reflects a pattern of instability in Guinea-Bissau since the country gained independence from Portugal in 1974, and follows a long string of coups and coup attempts. Guinea-Bissau also ranks first among African countries in the cocaine trade, a reality that looms ever larger over national politics. In his inaugural speech, transitional president Maj-Gen. Horta Nta Na Man justified the military takeover as necessary to thwart a plot by “narco-traffickers” to destabilize the country. Government efforts to crack down on the narco trade are believed to have prompted previous coups d’etatin Guinea-Bissau. (Map: PCL)

Africa

Sudan: hollow truces, blood theft

In a move that will shock absolutely nobody following the war in Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) declared a three-month unilateral humanitarian truce—and then promptly broke it with an attack on an army position in the West Kordofan town of Babanusa. RSF leader Hemedti billed the pause as a first step towards a political solution, but it looks like just another attempt to con mediators and journalists. As ever, those attempts have been drowned out by a stream of grim revelations, including reports that RSF fighters forcibly took blood from civilians fleeing El Fasher—prompting one commentator to label them “literal vampires.” A Doctors Without Borders update found that many of the 260,000 civilians still alive in El Fasher before the RSF takeover in October are now dead, detained, trapped, or unable to access lifesaving aid. (Map: PCL)

Europe

Ex-MEP imprisoned in pro-Russia influence-buying

The former Wales leader of right-wing populist political party Reform UK, Nathan Gill, was imprisoned after pleading guilty to accepting bribes from Kremlin-linked figures. The Central Criminal Court sentenced Gill to 10 years and six months under the Bribery Act of 2010. Gill served as a member of the European Parliament from 2014 up to the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union in 2020. During the course of his membership, it was found that Gill accepted bribes in exchange for including pro-Russian rhetoric in his statements to EuroParliament. The man who arranged the bribes was identified as Oleg Voloshyn, a former pro-Russian Ukrainian MP who is a friend of Russian President Putin. Victor Medvedchuk, chairman of the pro-Russian Ukrainian political party Opposition Platform–For Life, was named as the source of the payments to Gill and initiator of the bribery scheme. (Photo: Steven Lek via Wikimedia Commons)

Syria

Podcast: the new Syria in the Great Game

Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa’s White House meeting with Donald Trump followed the removal of his Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from the list of designated “terrorist organizations” both at the State Department and at the UN. It also coincided with raids against ISIS by his security forces, raising the prospect of his government being invited to join the US-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. The Washington visit also came just a month after al-Sharaa’s similar trip to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow, where a deal was brokered allowing Russia to keep its military bases in Syria. Amid all this, Syria continues to see forced disappearances and other abuses targetting Druze, Alawites and Kurds—pointing to the looming threat of an ethnic or sectarian internal war. The US troop presence in Syria is largely embedded among the Kurdish forces in the east. As al-Sharaa becomes a new “anti-terrorist” partner (or proxy) for the Great Powers, will these troops be withdrawn—providing a “green light” for Damascus to attack the Kurdish autonomous zone? In Episode 305 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg weighs the risks at this critical moment in Syria’s transition process, nearly one year after the fall of the Assad dictatorship. (Image: Pixabay)

Palestine

UN endorses US-backed Gaza ‘peace’ resolution

The UN Security Council passed a US-backed resolution endorsing the Trump administration’s 20-point Gaza peace plan. The resolution, passed by a vote of 13 members in favor with China and Russia abstaining, recognizes the proposal’s “Board of Peace” (BOP) as a “transitional governance administration” in Gaza. The resolution also authorizes the BOP to establish a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza. The ISF will consist of forces contributed by participating states in consultation with Egypt and Israel. The force, along with Israel, Egypt, and a newly trained Palestinian Authority police force, will secure border areas and enforce the permanent disarmament of Hamas. Under the White House proposal, the BOP will be chaired by President Trump, with other international leaders serving, including former British prime minister Tony Blair. (Photo: displaced Palestinians returning home during this January’s ceasefire. Credit: UNRWA via Wikimedia Commons)

Africa

Podcast: Darfur again —a genocide foretold

Throughout the 18-month siege of El Fasher, capital of Sudan’s North Darfur state, international human rights observers had been warning that the city’s residents faced a general massacre when it eventually fell to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Yet nothing was done, apart from ineffectual Great Power diplomacy that had zero impact on the ground. Now that the foretold massacre is underway—with hundreds killed, thousands missing, and no end in sight—calls are at last emerging for boycott, divestment and sanctions against the United Arab Emirates, the apparent underwriter of the genocidal RSF. In Episode 302 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg notes the contrast with the situation 20 years ago, when #SaveDarfur was a cause célèbre—and asks what has changed. (Photo: Roman Deckert via Wikimedia Commons)

Afghanistan

Fighting breaks out along Durand Line

According to reports in Pakistan’s media, the Afghan Taliban and affiliated militants launched an attack from the Afghan side of the border, killing at least 23 Pakistani troops and injuring some 30 others. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar stated that troops responded to cross-border raids by “Fitna-e-Khawarij and Fitna-e-Hindustan terrorist elements.” This appears to be a reference to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which Islamabad accuses the Afghan Taliban of providing sanctuary to. In contrast, a statement from Hamdullah Fitrat, spokesman for the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, said that conditions on the “imaginary line” with Pakistan are under control. Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have been fraught with tension, especially around the disputed Durand Line border. Established in 1893 between British India and Afghanistan, this border has never been officially recognized by any Afghan government since the partition of India in 1947, leading to a persistent territorial dispute. (Map: Google)

Planet Watch

Bolivia, Syria & the challenge of plurinationalism

The recent political reversal in Bolivia raises the question of whether the advances of nearly 20 years of rule by the indigenist left will survive—including a constitution that refounded the state as a “plurinational” republic. In Episode 299 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg explores how the lessons of the Bolivian experience can be applied to Syria, where the new revolutionary government faces a challenge in Kurdish and Druze demands for regional autonomy. (Photo: Aymara march in Oruro, Bolivia. Via Wikipedia)

Africa

Sudan: ‘roadmap’ to peace —amid escalation to genocide

After months of US-led negotiations, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (the “Quad“) issued a “roadmap to peace” in Sudan, starting with a push for a three-month “humanitarian truce.” However, despite the agreement with the main regional backers of the two sides in the war, fighting continues between the Sudanese armed forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Since the “roadmap” was announced, the RSF has continued to close its ring around El Fasher, the besieged capital of North Darfur state. UN officials have condemned the assault and warned of catastrophic consequences for civilians under siege, facing severe shortages of food, clean water, and medical services. When the RSF offensive was launched earlier this year, a coalition of aid organizations and human rights groups issued a statement finding: “Genocide and atrocity crimes are being committed now in North Darfur. The RSF is engaged in the mass killing of civilians and will likely continue this if/when they reach El Fasher.” (Map via Radio Tamazuj)