Great Game

Watching the Shadows

‘Donroe Doctrine’ threatens hemisphere

As Nicolás Maduro appeared in federal court in New York, Trump made explicit military threats against Colombia, Mexico, Cuba and Greenland—prompting protests from those countries’ leaders. In defense of his bellicosity, Trump invoked the notion of Latin America as a US influence sphere that was articulated in his recent National Security Strategy, calling it the “Donroe Doctrine.” (Photo: US Navy via Latin America Reports)

Africa

Somaliland and Western Sahara: forbidden symmetry

Israel has become the first country on Earth to recognize the de facto independent Republic of Somaliland, in exchange for a commitment from Somaliland to join the Abraham Accordsand recognize Israel. However, not three years ago, Israel joined the US as the only two countries on Earth to recognize Morocco’s claim to sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara—a betrayal of the occupied Sahrawi Arab people who seek an independent state. And of course both these deals constitute a betrayal of the Palestinians. Somaliland and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic should be natural allies, and instead they are being pitted against each other in the Great Power game. Yet another example of how a global divide-and-rule racket is the essence of the state system. In Episode 311 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg breaks it down. (Photo: Horn Diplomat via Wikipedia)

Europe

Finland seizes ‘shadow’ vessel in cable caper

Finnish authorities announced that they are investigating damage to an undersea telecommunications cable in the Gulf of Finland after seizing a vessel suspected of sabotage in the incident. After telecommunications authorities detected a fault in the undersea cable linking Helsinki and Tallinn, Estonia’s capital, Finland’s Border Guard was mobilized, and located a suspicious vessel within the country’s exclusive economic zone. After taking control of the vessel, Border Guard officials told reporters that the cargo ship had been sailing from the Russian port of St. Petersburg to Israel. Officials linked it to Russia’s “shadow fleet” allegedly used to circumvent Western sanctions, describing the incident as part of a broader pattern of “hybrid threats” targeting critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. (Map: Google)

Africa

Sahel states launch new joint counter-insurgency force

At an air base in Bamako, Mali’s military ruler Gen. Assimi Goita presided over a ceremony marking the launch of a unified force for three Sahel states to fight the rising tide of jihadist insurgency across their borders. The move comes after the three countries—Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, all now ruled by military juntas—collectively withdrew from the West African regional bloc ECOWAS to form their own Alliance of Sahel States (AES). This new body has deepening ties to Russia, which has maintained paramilitary forces in the AES countries under the rubric of the Wagner Group or Africa Corps. These forces are increasingly accused of atrocities, with Malian refugees in Mauritania reporting rapes, beheadings and mutilation of civilians at the hands of Russian mercenaries. (Photo: Présidence de la République du Mali)

Iran

Protest wave spreads across Iran

On the third day of protests by Tehran bazaar merchants in response to the dire economic situation in Iran, the strike started to spread across the country. Shopkeepers in Isfahan, Ahvaz, Shiraz, Kermanshah and Najafabad closed their stalls and held protest gatherings, where they were joined by students who walked off university campuses. Security forces responded with multiple arrests and the use of live fire and tear-gas, with one student reported severely injured in Tehran. Protest slogans escalated beyond economic grievances, openly targeting clerical rule and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A photo of a lone protester blocking a column of police motorcycles on a Tehran freeway has gone viral, drawing comparisons to the iconic “tank man” photo from Tiananmen Square in June 1989. (Photo via Twitter)

Africa

World leaders reject Israeli recognition of Somaliland

A group of 21 Arab, African and Islamic nations issued a joint statement formally rejecting Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. The statement asserted that recognizing Somaliland as a nation independent of Somalia constitutes a grave violation of international law, emphasizing the “serious repercussions of such [an] unprecedented measure on peace and security in the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, and its serious effects on international peace and security as a whole.” This statement followed a declaration signed by Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu and Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, making Israel the first country on earth to recognize Somaliland. As part of the deal, Somaliland is expected to recognize Israel under the Abraham Accords. President Donald Trump brokered the Abraham Accords in his first term, seeking to establish diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab nations. However, despite the Trump administration’s failed proposition earlier this year for Somaliland to take in Palestinians from Gaza, the US State Department announced that Washington will continue to recognize the territorial integrity of Somalia, “which includes the territory of Somaliland.” (Map: Somalia Country Profile)

Africa

Podcast: MAGA-fascism and the struggle in Nigeria

With his Christmas air-strikes on Nigeria, Trump is blundering into a conflict fundamentally driven by desertification related to the very climate change that he denies, and which now threatens democratic rule throughout the West African region. And while the Muslim-Christian sectarian strife that Trump hypes is a large element of the situation, the violence has gone both ways. Furthermore, making Christians the perceived beneficiaries of imperialist intervention is only likely to exacerbate the tensions and make Christians more of a target. In Episode 310 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg takes an in-depth and unsparing look. (Photo: AFRICOM via Long War Journal)

Greater Middle East

Yemen: UAE-backed southern separatist forces advance

Yemen’s separatist Southern Transitional Council, which is said to be backed by the United Arab Emirates, has been rapidly advancing through large parts of the country’s south and east, in Hadramawt, al-Mahra and Shabwa provinces. They are taking over control from groups backed by Saudi Arabia, including the Hadramawt Tribal Alliance. While all forces involved are supposed to be on the same side in a broader anti-Houthi alliance, the move is yet another reminder that Yemen’s war is not over, and that it involves a variety of actors and local grievances. (Map of Yemen before 1990 unification via Wikipedia)

Watching the Shadows

Trump Corollary: spheres of influence, white supremacy

Donald Trump’s new National Security Strategy instates a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. Like the Roosevelt Corollary of 1904, which was used to justify the “gunboat diplomacy” of that era, this new corollary openly calls for dividing the world into spheres of influence—with the Western Hemisphere assigned to the US. Russia is obviously pleased as punch over this, as it implicitly gives Moscow a free hand in Ukraine—and Putin will likely consider this an acceptable pay-off for his betrayal of Venezuela. However, China is less likely to surrender its massive investments and mega-projects in Latin America in exchange for a free hand to take over Taiwan. The document’s text on Europe is even more sinister, revealing a white supremacist agenda that looks not to Washington’s traditional allies to counter Russia, but to the continent’s Russian-backed far-right movements to counter Washington’s traditional allies. In Episode 308 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg exposes the NSS as a further step toward consolidation of a Fascist World Order. (Image: White House)

Watching the Shadows

US instates ‘Trump Corollary’ to Monroe Doctrine

President Donald Trump’s new National Security Strategy puts the Western Hemisphere at the center of US foreign policy and revives the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, appending it with a “Trump Corollary.” The document presents the Americas as the main line of defense for the US homeland and links that doctrine directly to ongoing military operations against suspected drug traffickers in Caribbean and Pacific waters. It places the Hemisphere as the top regional priority, above Europe, the Middle East and Indo-Pacific, with an imperative of controlling migration, drug flows, and foreign influence before they can reach US territory. It also states that the US will block “non-Hemispheric competitors” from owning or controlling “strategically vital assets” in the Americas, including ports, energy facilities, and telecommunications networks. (Photo: USS Gerald R. Ford. Credit: US Navy via Wikimedia Commons)

Africa

Guinea-Bissau: narco-plot behind latest African coup?

UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the military coup in Guinea-Bissau that took place just days after national elections, saying that it gravely violates constitutional order and democratic principles. The African Union similarly condemned the coup, while the West African regional bloc ECOWAS suspended Guinea-Bissau until there is a full restoration of constitutional order. This latest military takeover reflects a pattern of instability in Guinea-Bissau since the country gained independence from Portugal in 1974, and follows a long string of coups and coup attempts. Guinea-Bissau also ranks first among African countries in the cocaine trade, a reality that looms ever larger over national politics. In his inaugural speech, transitional president Maj-Gen. Horta Nta Na Man justified the military takeover as necessary to thwart a plot by “narco-traffickers” to destabilize the country. Government efforts to crack down on the narco trade are believed to have prompted previous coups d’etatin Guinea-Bissau. (Map: PCL)

Africa

Sudan: hollow truces, blood theft

In a move that will shock absolutely nobody following the war in Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) declared a three-month unilateral humanitarian truce—and then promptly broke it with an attack on an army position in the West Kordofan town of Babanusa. RSF leader Hemedti billed the pause as a first step towards a political solution, but it looks like just another attempt to con mediators and journalists. As ever, those attempts have been drowned out by a stream of grim revelations, including reports that RSF fighters forcibly took blood from civilians fleeing El Fasher—prompting one commentator to label them “literal vampires.” A Doctors Without Borders update found that many of the 260,000 civilians still alive in El Fasher before the RSF takeover in October are now dead, detained, trapped, or unable to access lifesaving aid. (Map: PCL)