Great Game

Africa

Sudan: ‘roadmap’ to peace —amid escalation to genocide

After months of US-led negotiations, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (the “Quad“) issued a “roadmap to peace” in Sudan, starting with a push for a three-month “humanitarian truce.” However, despite the agreement with the main regional backers of the two sides in the war, fighting continues between the Sudanese armed forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Since the “roadmap” was announced, the RSF has continued to close its ring around El Fasher, the besieged capital of North Darfur state. UN officials have condemned the assault and warned of catastrophic consequences for civilians under siege, facing severe shortages of food, clean water, and medical services. When the RSF offensive was launched earlier this year, a coalition of aid organizations and human rights groups issued a statement finding: “Genocide and atrocity crimes are being committed now in North Darfur. The RSF is engaged in the mass killing of civilians and will likely continue this if/when they reach El Fasher.” (Map via Radio Tamazuj)

South Asia

India: deadly repression at Ladakh autonomy protest

Amnesty International urged Indian authorities to promptly investigate the use of live fire during protests in Leh, Union Territory of Ladakh, after at least four people were killed and more than 50 injured. Clashes erupted as demonstrators pressed long-standing demands for statehood and constitutional protections for land and jobs. Police said they responded after the crowd turned violent, with vehicles and a ruling Bharatiya Janata Party office set ablaze, and claimed officers fired in self-defense. Authorities imposed a curfew in Leh and restricted mobile internet services. (Map via Wikipedia)

Africa

Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso announce withdrawal from ICC

Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso announced that they will withdraw from the International Criminal Court (ICC), accusing the tribunal of serving “imperial” rather than African interests. The three countries, each governed by military juntas and members of the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES), issued a joint declaration stating that they no longer recognize the ICC as a legitimate forum for justice, charging that it has become an “instrument of neo-colonialist repression.” The decision comes amid ongoing security crisis in the Sahel region, where armed groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are waging brutal insurgencies, carrying out attacks against civilians as well as security forces. Human rights groups have accused state security forces of committing extrajudicial killings and other serious abuses in counter-terrorism operations. (Image: Wikipedia)

Syria

Syria: clashes follow al-Sharaa ultimatum to SDF

Fighting broke out in the village of Um Tineh, in Syria’s Aleppo province, between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and forces aligned with the Damascus regime, leaving at least seven civilians dead. The SDF said the clashes began with a drone attack on the village, followed by artillery bombardment, damaging local homes. The violence came three days after President Ahmed al-Sharaa warned that the SDF’s failure to integrate into the Syrian Armed Forces could provoke Turkish military intervention by year’s end. Planned talks in Paris on how to incorporate the Kurdish autonomous zone into the new government were broken off by the transitional regime last month. Turkey has repeatedly bombed SDF-held territory in Syria over the past months, as the threat of Arab-Kuridsh ethnic war looms larger on the ground. (Photo: SOHR)

Syria

Syria: perilous ‘roadmap’ to reconciliation with Druze

Syria, Jordan and the United States jointly announced a “roadmap” to resolve the ongoing crisis in the southern Syrian province of as-Suwayda, where July clashes between Druze and Bedouin forces escalated to sectarian killings and mass displacement. The plan seeks to strengthen a fragile ceasefire, let UN investigators look into the July events while holding perpetrators accountable under Syrian law, allow aid deliveries, and facilitate the return of some 160,000 people who remain displaced. However, some Druze leaders have rejected the plan. Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri ruled out negotiations with the government, while adding: “I thanked Israel because it defended us and provided us with protection.” His followers have announced the creation of a “National Guard” for as-Suwayda region, which according to regional media reports has received thousands of light arms from Israel. (Map: PCL)

Europe

Belarusian political prisoners as pawns in power game

NATO launched a new exercise dubbed Eastern Sentry in response to the ongoing joint Russia-Belarus military exercise dubbed Zapad (West), which involves thousands of troops, naval maneuvers in the Baltic Sea, and simulated nuclear strikes. Yet two US military observers were invited to Belarus to observe the Zapad exercise, standing on a viewing platform to review forces from the same Russian army that is fighting in Ukraine. This appears to be part of a US rapprochement with Belarus, coming days after 52 Belarusian political prisoners were released in a US-brokered deal. However, the dissidents protest that they were expelled to Lithuania and not given the choice of remaining in their own country. One, former Belarusian presidential candidate Mikola Statkevich, has already been returned to a penal colony after refusing to accept exile. (Photo of Russian T-14 Armata tank via National Security Journal)

Syria

Druze protesters mobilize for independence from Syria

Hundreds demonstrated in the southern Syrian city of Suwayda, pressing for the “self-determination” of the Druze people. Protesters demanded full independence from Syria, dismissing ideas of federalism or autonomy as inadequate. Speakers asserted that statehood is needed to guarantee their security, citing last month’s episode of violence in Suwayda as evidence that inter-ethnic coexistence under one state is no longer a viable solution. Complicating the situation is that Israel is posing itself as the protector of the Syrian Druze. Amid the July fighting, Israel launched air-strikes on Syria, saying that the Druze were threatened by government-affiliated forces. (Photo: Druze Free Spirits via Twitter)

The Caucasus

‘Trump Corridor’ through Armenia under ‘peace’ deal

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia and President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan signed a joint declaration at the White House, with Donald Trump boasting that the US-brokered deal ends decades of conflict between the Caucasus neighbors. Critically, the agreement calls for a new transport corridor across Armenian territory, linking Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan, which lies between Armenia and the borders with Turkey and Iran. The corridor is to be named the “Trump Route for International Peace & Prosperity,” and Armenia has granted the United States the right to manage it for 99 years. US companies will have exclusive development rights on the corridor throughout this period. (Map: Peter Hermes Furian/Shutterstock via The Conversation)

Africa

Violence escalates in DRC —despite ‘peace’ deal

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk condemned a recent surge in deadly attacks against civilians by M23 fighters and other armed groups in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The attacks come in spite of a Washington-brokered ceasefire agreement between the DRC government and Rwanda, which backs the M23 rebels. The DRC government and M23 have only signed a “declaration of principles” supposedly committing them to a formal peace deal—but meanwhile, violence on the ground has escalated. (Photo: Sylvain Liechti/MONUSCO via Wikimedia Commons)

Europe

Podcast: Alaska 2025 = Munich 1938?

Russia’s irredentist claims on its former holding Alaska have provided fodder for comedians, but the stakes at the Trump-Putin meeting in the Last Frontier are no laughing matter. Despite the escalating mutual nuclear threats between Washington and Moscow, Trump’s call for a Russia-Ukraine “land-swap” obviously means Kyiv being forced to accept Moscow’s annexation of much of its territory in exchange for the return of other pieces its own territory illegally occupied by Russia. Meanwhile, Moscow sends drones to threaten NATO member Lithuania, which sits on the critical corridor to the Russian exclave (and tactical missile outpost) of Kaliningrad. Germany has responded by sending troops to the Baltic country—its first post-war foreign deployment. Appeasement of aggression failed to win peace at Munich in 1938, and there’s no reason to hope it will in Alaska today. But the difference is that the contending powers today have nuclear weapons. In Episode 291 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg takes an unflinching look. (Map via Wikipedia)

Southeast Asia

Orwell and the Thai-Cambodia conflict

Cambodia’s prime minister, Hun Manet, nominated Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize on Aug. 7, citing his “crucial role” in restoring peace after bloody border fighting with Thailand. The gushy statement praised Trump’s “extraordinary statesmanship” and “innovative diplomacy.” (NYT) Cambodia now… Read moreOrwell and the Thai-Cambodia conflict

Africa

Sudan: RSF announce rival government

A coalition led by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has announced formation of a parallel government in Sudan, further cementing the country’s territorial split between army-held and RSF-held regions. Paramilitary leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti“) will head a 15-person council with Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, head of the SPLM-N rebel group, as deputy. The African Union urged member states to not recognize the new regime, which wants to rival the Port Sudan-based army-led transitional government. This effectively leaves the RSF-led regime in control of much of the south, the army in control of the north, and the center of the country contested. (Map: PCL)