TNH – CounterVortex

Greater Middle East

Signal breach exposes flippant attitude to civilian deaths

Nearly 60 people, including children, have been killed as the United States expands its two-week bombing campaign in Yemen to include (according to a review by the Associated Press) “firing at ranking personnel as well as dropping bombs in cities.” This comes as recently exposed Signal messages between senior US officials discussing the air-strikes demonstrated a flippant attitude towards the lives of Yemeni civilians. In one disturbing exchange concerning an apparent strike on a civilian apartment building, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz writes: “The first target—their top missile guy—we had positive ID of him walking into his girlfriend’s building and it’s now collapsed.” “Excellent,” comes the reply from Vice President JD Vance. The messages, which were brought to light after a journalist from The Atlantic was mistakenly added to the officials’ group chat in a staggering breach of normal security protocols, show a callous indifference to the ethical implications of bombing civilian areas. This is perhaps unsurprising for a country that provided many of the planes and trained many of the pilots involved in the Saudi-led bombing campaign that killed over 9,000 Yemenis between 2015 and 2022. (Map via PCL)

Mexico

Trump-induced migration crisis in Mexico

President Donald Trump’s migration crackdown has been credited with reducing flows northward towards the United States, but it is leaving hundreds of thousands of migrants and asylum seekers trapped in a legal limbo further south, anxiously wrestling with what to do next. People on the move are now stranded in precarious living conditions across Mexico, more exposed than ever to violence, abuse and privation. (Photo of Tapachula migrant camp: Daniela Díaz for The New Humanitarian)

Africa

Jihadists and separatists to form alliance in Mali?

Talks are reported to be underway between JNIM, the main jihadist coalition in Mali, and the Tuareg-led secessionist Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) over a possible alliance against the Malian army and its Russian mercenary allies. Mali’s military regime terminated a peace deal with the separatists last year after driving them out of their northern strongholds. The junta has consistently labelled secessionist groups as “terrorists'” and accused them of collusion with jihadists. Separatists deny this, though combatants from both groups share family and community ties, have allied opportunistically at times in the past, and operate in the same areas. According to France 24, current points of negotiation include JNIM softening its demands, especially regarding the application of sharia law, and breaking ties to al-Qaeda. A sticking point may be the FLA’s goal of an independent Azawad—the name they give to northern Mali. Intensified fighting in the north over the past year has had severe humanitarian consequences, driving tens of thousands of people to neighboring Mauritania. (Map of Azawad, the claimed Tuareg homeland, via Twitter)

Palestine

Israel blocks Gaza aid, ceasefire teeters

Israel is imposing a total blockade on aid entering the Gaza Strip, raising fears of a return to violence, and of a rapid further deterioration in the dire humanitarian situation in the devastated enclave. The move is intended to pressure Hamas to accept a temporary extension of the first phase of the three-stage ceasefire deal. The second phase was supposed to see Israel and Hamas hammer out a plan for Gaza’s post-war governance. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instead repeatedly expressed support for US President Trump’s widely condemned proposal to expel the 2.1 million Palestinian residents of Gaza and take control of the territory. Arab leaders meeting in Cairo endorsed a $53 billion reconstruction and post-war governance plan as a counter-proposal to Trump’s vision, but it was immediately rejected by the US and Israel. (Photo: Mohamed Soulaimane al-Astal/TNH)

Africa

South Sudan: peace accord on brink of collapse

South Sudanese troops deployed around the house of Vice President Riek Machar and arrested officials from his SPLA-IO party, marking one of the most serious threats yet to the peace deal that Machar’s group signed with President Salva Kiir in 2018. The arrests follow reports of clashes in northeastern Upper Nile state between the national army and the ethnic Nuer militia known as the White Army, which was allied to Marchar during the 2013-2018 civil war. Tensions have been mounting since the government’s decision last year to postpone long-overdue elections, a delay that critics called a failure to implement the 2018 agreement—which has itself been blamed for fuelling instability. Commanders and politicians compete for power in a transitional government based in the capital, Juba, by fighting local wars in the peripheries. (Map: Perry-Castañeda Library)

Central Asia

Thailand deports Uyghur asylum seekers to China

After detaining them in squalid short-term holding facilities for more than a decade, Thailand deported 40 Uyghur asylum seekers to China. Human rights groups had been urging the Thai government for more than a month to halt any plans to deport the group—though senior officials denied there were any such plans. The removals were carried out in a pre-dawn operation using trucks with blacked-out windows, flanked by police. The Chinese embassy in Bangkok described the men as “illegal immigrants” and said they would “return to normal life.” But rights groups, as well as relatives of the asylum seekers living abroad, worry that the group will remain detained in China—or be sentenced to death. China has previously labelled anyone seeking asylum abroad as a “terrorist.” The UN’s refugee agency, UNHCR, said the deportations were “a clear violation of the principle of non-refoulement” and international law. (Photo: Jacob Goldberg/TNH)

Syria

US aid freeze escalates Syria crisis

Just weeks after US President Donald Trump’s order to freeze foreign aid, Syrians are already seeing medical clinics providing urgent assistance close, water distributions slow down, and bread distribution in many displacement camps grind to a halt. After nearly 14 years of war, the UN estimates that 16.5 million people across Syria are in need of aid. While the December overthrow of Bashar al-Assad has lifted the siege conditions in the country’s north, the need for relief among those facing severe privation, food insecurity, and mass internal displacement remains unrelenting. (Photo: UNHCR)

Palestine

Palestinian-owned bookshops raided in Jerusalem

Israeli police raided two branches of a renowned bookshop in occupied East Jerusalem, seizing books and arresting the owner and his nephew. Mahmoud and Ahmed Muna were accused of selling books that incite terrorism, and later charged with disturbing public order. The family-owned Educational Bookshop is a Jerusalem landmark and cultural hub, and publishers, academics and rights groups came out to protest and support the Munas and their shop. The rights watchdog B’Tselem said in a statement that “the attempt to crush the Palestinian people includes the harassment and arrest of intellectuals… Israel must immediately release [Mahmoud and Ahmed Muna] from detention and stop persecuting Palestinian intellectuals.” The Munas were held for two nights and released on five days’ house arrest—but the family re-opened the shop even before that. “They want to make us afraid. Not just us, they want to send a message to all Palestinian people,” said Morad Muna, Mahmoud’s brother. He said the re-opening was “the best reaction that we can do to such a situation.” (Image: Educational Bookshop)

Africa

Sudan’s army advances, abuses multiply

The Sudanese army appears close to retaking the capital city Khartoum from the paramilitary-turned-rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as momentum continues to swing in its favor following nearly two years of conflict. Reports suggest the army has been advancing on multiple fronts, having broken a bruising siege on its Khartoum headquarters last month. It has also won back significant territory in other parts of central Sudan, including Gezira state. Military control, however, has come at a significant cost, with the UN reporting that soldiers and allied militia have been carrying out summary executions of civilians they accuse of being RSF collaborators. Workers in self-organized “mutual aid” groups—the backbone of the humanitarian response in Sudan—have also been targeted in the reprisals. (Map: Sudan War Monitor)

Africa

SahelExit raises regional fears amid new ISIS threat

Dubbed “Sahelexit,” the decision by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to leave the West African regional community known as ECOWAS is now official. The three members of the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—sanctioned over coups that overturned their elected governments—are out. It leaves the 12 other countries in ECOWAS, one of Africa’s most economically integrated blocs, rethinking the organization’s relevance. Like ECOWAS, the new group will allow free movement between their shared territories—now derisively referred to as the “coup belt.” But it is in the field of security cooperation that the AES states will be especially missed. Jihadist insurgents are on the march. So-called “Islamic State” forces have set up in northwest Nigeria, where they are known as Lakurawa. With neighboring Niger now pulling out of a regional Multilateral Joint Task Force, there are fears that countering the threat will be all the harder. (Photo via Sahara Reporters)

Watching the Shadows

Trump orders expansion of Gitmo migrant facility

President Trump has ordered the construction of a 30,000-bed facility to hold migrants at the notorious US naval facility at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, as part of his mass deportation campaign. The US base has been used to house terrorism suspects since 2002, becoming synonymous with torture and unlawful imprisonment. The US has secretively detained refugees and migrants intercepted at sea at Guantánamo Bay for decades, but the facility has not previously been used for people apprehended on US soil or at this scale. (Photo: Spc. Cody Black/WikiMedia via Jurist)

North America

Trump rushes out hardline migration agenda

During his first days back in office, Donald Trump rapidly started implementing his hardline migration agenda, including by declaring a state of emergency at the US southern border. The move allows his administration to access billions of dollars to expand the building of a border wall and to deploy the military and national guard to the area. Around 1,500 active duty soldiers are already being deployed. Trump also reinstated the controversial “Remain in Mexico” program from his first administration. This policy, which requires people to wait for asylum appointments in Mexico, helped to create a now-perennial humanitarian crisis in northern Mexico. The Trump administration has also shut down CBP One—a cell phone app for scheduling asylum appointments—leaving thousands of people stranded in Mexico, and suspended the US refugee resettlement program, as well as cancelling travel plans for refugees who had already been approved to enter the country. Trump’s promised mass deportation of millions of undocumented people has yet to get underway, but his administration has begun laying the groundwork for expanded immigration raids—potentially including on schools, churches, and hospitals—and has threatened to prosecute any local officials who don’t comply. (Image: White House)