TNH – CounterVortex

Planet Watch

Triple-cyclone disaster crystalizes climate threat

A rare convergence of three tropical cyclones with the northeast monsoon has triggered the worst flooding to hit South and Southeast Asia in decades. More than 1,600 people have been killed, thousands remain unaccounted for, and whole villages have disappeared under mud and rising water. Roads, bridges, and other vital infrastructure have been torn apart, hampering rescue efforts as communities wait for help across Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and other affected countries. The scale of the disaster reflects a dangerous mix of climate pressures. Warmer oceans are intensifying storms, while a hotter atmosphere is capable of holding and releasing far more moisture. Environmental degradation has left many communities exposed: rivers once stabilized by forest cover burst their banks with little resistance. Humanitarian groups are urging governments to strengthen early-warning systems, invest in resilient infrastructure, and prioritize long-term adaptation—all of which makes the disappointing outcomes of this year’s UN climate summit even more worrying. (Photo: town in Sri Lanka after Cyclone Ditwah. Credit: UNICEF/InceptChange via UN News)

Africa

ICC asked to investigate Tanzania killings

A coalition of local and international human rights groups has asked the International Criminal Court to open a case against Tanzanian President Samia Hassan and senior members of her government over killings by the security forces during post-election unrest in October. How many people died in the protests over the “sham” elections is still unknown. Hassan’s government has remained silent on an official death toll, but the opposition—who were effectively barred from the polls—claims thousands were shot by the police and Ugandan special forces. Gruesome images were shared online of armed men firing indiscriminately into crowds, and of overflowing morgues. A CNN investigation found that satellite imagery suggests the existence of mass graves. (Photo: Tanzania Daily News via AllAfrica)

Africa

Sudan: hollow truces, blood theft

In a move that will shock absolutely nobody following the war in Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) declared a three-month unilateral humanitarian truce—and then promptly broke it with an attack on an army position in the West Kordofan town of Babanusa. RSF leader Hemedti billed the pause as a first step towards a political solution, but it looks like just another attempt to con mediators and journalists. As ever, those attempts have been drowned out by a stream of grim revelations, including reports that RSF fighters forcibly took blood from civilians fleeing El Fasher—prompting one commentator to label them “literal vampires.” A Doctors Without Borders update found that many of the 260,000 civilians still alive in El Fasher before the RSF takeover in October are now dead, detained, trapped, or unable to access lifesaving aid. (Map: PCL)

Watching the Shadows

Trump vows ‘reverse migration’ —after CIA blowback?

President Trump called for “reverse migration” and a “major reduction in illegal and disruptive populations” in a racist late-night online rant. In the bizarre Thanksgiving message, Trump vowed to “permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries” and revisit immigration decisions made under his predecessor, Joe Biden. He said deportations will target “anyone who is not a net asset to the United States, or is incapable of loving our Country” or “non-compatible with Western Civilization.” Trump’s message followed the shooting of two National Guard soldiers in Washington DC, apparently by an Afghan refugee, Rahmanullah Lakanwal. In Afghanistan, Lakanwal reportedly served in the Zero Units: paramilitary forces backed by the CIA—notorious for conducting night raids on the homes of suspected Taliban collaborators. Rights groups have accused them of extrajudicial executions, enforced disappearances, indiscriminate airstrikes, and attacks on medical facilities. According to the New York Times, the brutality of the Zero Unit tactics took a toll on Lakanwal’s mental health, with a childhood friend recalling how he was disturbed by the casualties his unit had caused. (Image: Twitter)

North America

Texas turns state police into Trump’s immigration agents

Under a deal between Immigration & Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the Texas Department of Public Safety, the Texas state police force—consisting of some 5,000 officers—is being given the power to interrogate anyone suspected to be undocumented about their immigration status and to arrest people who are believed to be in the country without papers, without first obtaining a warrant. The move is heightening concerns that already exist about racial profiling in the Trump administration’s country-wide immigration crackdown. (Photo: Texas Department of Public Safety via Facebook)

Planet Watch

Absent Trump looms large over COP30

Following another year of record temperatures and powerful storms, world leaders are gathering in Belém, Brazil, for the opening of the COP30 climate talks. But the leaders attending—notably, they do not include US President Donald Trump—will be confronted by a fraying global consensus on climate change, amid difficult geopolitical headwinds. A major risk to multilateral climate action is the presidency of Trump, who has described global warming as the world’s “greatest con job.” Reuters reported that some European officials have been bracing for a possible intervention by the Trump administration—despite the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Washington recently torpedoed a carbon levy on shipping, and European officials are worried that the Trump administration could make threats with tariffs or visa restrictions to influence the COP talks too. “If they pull the same tactics, I think there’s zero chance of having any sort of rallying around the Paris Agreement in response,” one official told Reuters. (Photo: CounterVortex)

Palestine

Gaza and Lebanon: the ceasefires that aren’t

The word “ceasefire” seems like a misnomer for the situation in the Gaza Strip since Israel and Hamas agreed to a deal that was supposed to end two years of war a month ago. The Israeli military is still deployed in over 50% of the territory and continues to shell and fire on Palestinians, killing more than 240 and injuring over 600 since Oct. 11. Aid is also still entering the enclave at a trickle—far from the levels needed to address a hunger crisis caused by months of Israeli-enforced deprivation. A UN resolution creating an international stabilization force for Gaza—a key part of the 20-point US peace plan—may face delays over disagreements about its mandate and the timetable for Israel’s withdrawal from the territory. Observers point out that the situation is beginning to resemble south Lebanon, where Israel has continued to occupy land and carry out attacks despite a ceasefire agreement that went into effect at the end of November last year. In recent weeks, Israel has carried out near-daily attacks in south Lebanon. (Photo: WAFA via WikimediaCommons)

North Africa

Tunisia government ‘suspends’ migrant rights group

The Tunisian government ordered a prominent advocacy organization, the Tunisian Forum for Social & Economic Rights (FTDES), to suspend its activities for one month. The organization has been outspoken in its criticism of President Kais Saied’s crackdown on Black African asylum seekers and migrants in the country, and his promotion of racist tropes about migration. The move comes amid a broader repression of civil society. (Image: Pixabay)

Africa

Post-electoral violence rocks Tanzania

Protests have escalated in Tanzania following elections widely viewed as a sham. Violence erupted on polling day over the exclusion from the ballot of President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s two biggest challengers, and increasing government repression. The protesters defied a heavy security presence to target polling stations, police vehicles, and businesses connected to the ruling party, some chanting “We want our country back!” An unknown number of people were shot dead, and Amnesty International has called for an investigation. Protests continue despite an internet blackout and the deployment of soldiers to enforce a lockdown. (Photo via Twitter)

The Caribbean

New international ‘Gang Suppression Force’ for Haiti

The UN Security Council approved a resolution transforming the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission, whose mandate has ended, into a Gang Suppression Force (GSF). Sponsored by the United States and Panama, the new force is set to include up to 5,500 military and police officers—far more than the old MSS force, which mustered fewer than 1,000. It’s not clear which countries the personnel for the GSF will come from, but it will also have “a broader mandate” than the MSS, which was restricted to supporting the Haitian National Police (PNH). The initial 12-month mandate includes “intelligence-led targeted counter-gang operations,” as well as supporting the PNH and Haitian armed forces. (Photo: Amnesty Kenya via PolicingInsight)

Planet Watch

UN climate pledges miss the mark for Paris goals

The international process to tackle climate change is still alive—but the vital target of restricting warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels under the 2015 Paris Agreement might not be. More than 100 countries submitted their national climate plans to the UN General Assembly meeting in New York. The “nationally determined contribution” policies (NDCs) are crucial for collective global progress to reduce greenhouse emissions. The fact that officials turned up with documents in hand is itself notable in a year fraught with international tension and growing climate-denialist narratives. (Donald Trump in his speech to the General Assembly dismissed climate change as “the greatest con job ever.”) But the NDCs are nothing close to sufficient to meet the 1.5°C “survival limit,” said Romain Ioualalen, policy chief at Oil Change International. “Not all countries bear equal responsibility for this collective failure,” added Ioualalen. “A handful of wealthy Western countries, led by the United States…have doubled down on oil and gas production for the past decade with no intention of changing course, mocking any notion of justice and equity in the transition.” (Photo: United Nations Photo via Flickr)

Africa

Sudan: RSF announce rival government

A coalition led by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has announced formation of a parallel government in Sudan, further cementing the country’s territorial split between army-held and RSF-held regions. Paramilitary leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti“) will head a 15-person council with Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, head of the SPLM-N rebel group, as deputy. The African Union urged member states to not recognize the new regime, which wants to rival the Port Sudan-based army-led transitional government. This effectively leaves the RSF-led regime in control of much of the south, the army in control of the north, and the center of the country contested. (Map: PCL)