TNH – CounterVortex

Greater Middle East

Celebration and sorrow in Lebanon; no respite for Gaza

A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah appears to be holding, with the US/France-brokered deal prompting thousands of displaced Lebanese civilians to head for their homes in the south. While there were celebrations on the road, so many homes, businesses and lives have been destroyed that the return is also marred by sorrow—with bodies still under the rubble of buildings flattened by Israel’s bombs. The days before the deal were particularly devastating, with Israel levelling an apartment block in central Beirut, reportedly killing at least 29 people. Both sides have traded accusations of violating the truce, which is based on the UN Security Council resolution that ended the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war. The next 60 days, during which both Hezbollah and Israel are set to withdraw from south Lebanon, will be crucial. While US President Joe Biden hopes to use this momentum to push for a deal in Gaza, no clear progress has been made on that front—meaning there is still no respite for civilians there. Israel is intensifying its bombardment in central Gaza, where medics say its military killed at least 26 people on the day after the Lebanon deal began, and aid—already mostly blockaded by Israel—is reportedly now being looted on a large scale with impunity. (Image via Flickr)

The Caribbean

Killings continue to escalate in Haiti

New UN data shows that more than 1,200 people were killed and 522 wounded in Haiti between July and September. This represents a 27% increase in casualties compared to the second quarter. Figures could get even worse, as a new wave of coordinated gang attacks isterrorizing areas that had previously been spared. About 10,000 people were forced to flee parts of Port-au-Prince, while nearly 22,000 more were displaced in Arcahaie, north of the capital. Gangs also fired at a UN helicopter used by the World Food Program to deliver aid, while a Catholic charity’s hospital clinic was vandalized and set on fire. A new UN report projects that 5.4 million Haitians—nearly half the population—will face crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity by February 2025. Despite the ever-rising violence, the US government continues its deportation flights. (Photo: El Soberano)

Africa

Chad: military base overrun by Boko Haram faction

President Mahamat Déby has vowed vengeance for an attack by jihadists on an army base in Chad’s Lake region that killed at least 40 soldiers. The insurgents who managed to overrun the base are likely to be from Boko Haram’s “Bakura” faction, which is concentrated in the northern part of the region, on the Niger-Chad border. They’ve been involved in a long-running battle for supremacy in the region with the rival Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP). Their commander, Ibrahim Bakura Doro, has resisted both peace overtures and demands for assimilation by the larger ISWAP group. The night-time attack on the Barkaram base, in which weapons and equipment were captured, follows a military sweep through the region by a joint force of Nigerian, Cameroonian and Chadian troops—which at the time was proclaimed a success. (Photo of Chadian troops via Presidency of Chad/Facebook)

Africa

New atrocities by RSF reported in Sudan’s Gezira

Brutal attacks by the Rapid Support Forces on villages and towns in Sudan’s Gezira state, south of Khartoum, have displaced around 120,000 people over the past two weeks, resembling the kind of violence used by the paramilitary group in the Darfur region beginning last year. The attacks were triggered by the defection to the army of the RSF’s top commander in Gezira, Abu Aqla Kayka; villages under his control were reportedly targeted. The UN said the attacks left at least 124 people dead and resulted in more than 27 women and girls being raped, though these numbers are likely a massive undercount given survivor testimonies, activist reports, and videos that show rows of bodies wrapped in shrouds. The attacks are among the worst to take place in Gezira since the RSF took over the state in December 2023. The state is considered the country’s breadbasket, but farmers have been forced to flee and cropland has been deliberately burnt. (Map: Sudan War Monitor)

The Caribbean

Power outages persist in storm-wracked Cuba

The collapse of the electrical grid plunged the entire island of Cuba into darkness last week—a situation worsened by the arrival of Hurricane Oscar. The national blackout, which caused many families to lose most of the little food they had, sparked rare protests amid a broader economic crisis marked by soaring inflation and widespread shortages of medicine, food, and water. Power has now been restored in the capital, Havana, but many rural areas remain in the dark, while schools and workplaces across the country remain closed due to ongoing energy-saving measures. (Map: Perry-Castañeda Library)

South Asia

Pakistan: Pashtun rights movement faces repression

The government of Pakistan has placed a ban on the activities of the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement, a grassroots organization that advocates for the rights of the Pashtun minority, which has been subjected to decades of abuse. The government officially listed the PTM as a “proscribed organization,” essentially labelling it a terrorist group. The order came days before the PTM was slated to hold a large demonstration. Amnesty International described the action as “part of a systematic and relentless clampdown by the Pakistani authorities on peaceful protests and assemblies by dissenting groups.” (Photo: Osama Ahmad/TNH)

Africa

UK offers new ‘detention facility’ to Diego Garcia detainees

With conditions among the asylum seekers on Diego Garcia growing dire and the island set to be ceded to Mauritius, the UK is under pressure to relocate the 56 Sri Lankan asylum seekers stranded there, plus eight receiving medical treatment in Rwanda. The British government has offered to transfer 36 of them to a UN-run transit center in Romania. After six months there, if they do not accept repatriation or re-settlement in another country, they will be accepted to the UK. However, lawyers are trying to have the group brought to the UK directly, arguing that forcing them to spend six months in a Romanian “detention facility” would “cause them to suffer further avoidable harm.” The Romania plan has also upset the 28 men who did not receive the offer and have been told they will stay on the island indefinitely if they do not accept repatriation. At least two began a hunger strike in protest. (Photo via TNH)

Africa

Rwanda, DRC at odds over M23 deal

Prospects for quelling the renewed M23 insurgency in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo have hit a snag after more recriminations between the Congolese government and Rwanda, which is supporting the rebels with troops and weapons. The two countries participated in talks in late August as part of a long-running Angolan meditation effort, but disagreements have since arisen. Kigali charges that Kinshasa refused to sign a deal that would have seen Rwanda withdraw from the DRC after Congolese efforts to neutralize the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a DRC-based militia founded by exiled Rwandan Hutus behind the 1994 genocide against Tutsis. The M23 conflict reignited in late 2021, and has displaced around 1.7 million people, according to the UN. (Photo of M23 fighters: MONUSCO Photos via Wikimedia Commons)

Planet Watch

Storms and floods kill hundreds around the globe

Typhoons, storms and flooding have killed hundreds and left millions homeless across four continents in recent days. More than 600 people—mostly in Vietnam and Burma—died whenSuper Typhoon Yagi, one of the strongest typhoons to hit Southeast Asia in decades, tore through the region, triggering landslides. In China, Typhoon Bebinca battered the commercial capital, Shanghai, forcing more than 400,000 people to evacuate. In Europe, at least 23 people died when Storm Boris dumped five times September’s average rainfall in a single week. In the United States, parts of North and South Carolina recorded 45 centimeters of rain in 12 hours—a statistic so rare it’s considered a once-in-a-thousand-year event. Inevitably, the wild weather has been devastating for more vulnerable countries. In conflict-affected northeastern Nigeria, half of the city of Maiduguri is under water after a local dam overflowed following torrential rains; recently emptied displacement camps are being used to shelter the homeless. In neighboring Chad, meanwhile, flooding has killed more than 340 people in the country’s south. (Photo: CounterVortex)

Planet Watch

Progress on making ecocide an international crime

Three Pacific island nations have proposed that ecocide become a crime under international law, which would see the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecute cases of environmental destruction alongside war crimes and genocide. The move by Vanuatu, Fiji, and Samoa is unlikely to see fast results but is expected to force ICC member states to at least consider the question. The initiative could one day lead to company leaders, or even nations, facing prosecution. However, ICC member states notably do not include China, Russia, India or the United States. (Photo: Stefan Müller via Wikimedia Commons)

Africa

Calls mount for Sudan intervention force

A UN fact-finding mission for Sudan called for an independent and impartial force to be deployed “without delay” to protect civilians. Its case is bolstered by reports of a new set of grave human rights violations in the country. In southeastern Sennar state, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) were accused of killing 40 people in artillery strikes on local markets and residential areas, while in Darfur’s famine-stricken Zam Zam displacement site, the RSF reportedly tightened a siege and arrested traders trying to supply the camp. The war that began in April 2023 has produced the world’s largest displacement and hunger crises. Recent mediation efforts have failed, with the army refusing to turn up and the RSF using its attendance to try to launder its terrible image. (Map: PCL)

Watching the Shadows

Is Elon Musk unstoppable?

If elected president in November, Donald Trump says he will create a government efficiency commission led by tech billionaire Elon Musk as part of his economic plan. Musk suggested the idea to Trump in a conversation on X, which he bought in 2022 when it was called Twitter. The announcement is the latest display of Musk’s growing influence in politics. The self-proclaimed “free speech absolutist” is accused of censoring progressive opinions while amplifying the voices of far-right networks. So far, no one seems to be able to check his growing power, as his recent legal battles with Australia and Brazil have demonstrated. Both countries tried to curtail content deemed harmful, but Musk ignored their requests. After Musk disregarded a judicial order to suspend dozens of X accounts for allegedly spreading disinformation in Brazil, the country’s Supreme Court ruled to ban it nationwide. Journalists, who have relied heavily on it, have expressed a mixture of relief and regret at the ban. (Photo: Filip Troníček via Wikipedia)