CounterVortex

Planet Watch

Doomsday Clock moves: 85 seconds to midnight

The Science & Security Board of the The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the symbolic hands of the Doomsday Clock to an unprecedented 85 seconds to midnight. The decision came a year after the clock was set to an also unprecedented 89 seconds to midnight—and three years after it was moved to 90 seconds to midnight. Each increment since 2017, when it was set at 2.5 minutes of midnight, has brought the Clock closer to doomsday than ever before. This year’s statement reads: “A year ago, we warned that the world was perilously close to global disaster and that any delay in reversing course increased the probability of catastrophe. Rather than heed this warning, Russia, China, the United States, and other major countries have instead become increasingly aggressive, adversarial, and nationalistic. Hard-won global understandings are collapsing, accelerating a winner-takes-all great power competition and undermining the international cooperation critical to reducing the risks of nuclear war, climate change, the misuse of biotechnology, the potential threat of artificial intelligence, and other apocalyptic dangers.” (Image: misucell.com)

Syria

Syria: can new integration pact avert war on Rojava?

The Syrian interim government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reached an agreement to immediately halt fighting and integrate SDF-held areas into state institutions. The deal follows days of renewed clashes, in which government forces routed SDF strongholds in the city of Aleppo and then pushed east, taking several towns that had been under the control of the Kurdish-led autonomous administration. Just hours before the agreement was reached, autonomous authorities in the Kurdish region, known as Rojava, had announced a “general mobilization” in support of the SDF, citing an “existential war” launched by Damascus against their territory. (Photo: Rudaw)

Syria

Multiple foreign powers still bombing Syria

The Pentagon said US and allied forces carried out a wave of air-strikes against ISIS targets across Syria, although accounts were unclear as to which other countries were involved or what casualties resulted. The raids came as part of Operation Hawkeye Strike, launched in response to the deadly ISIS attack on US and Syrian forces in Palmyra last month. The past week also saw joint British and French strikes on supposed ISIS targets near Palmyra. And Jordan carried out strikes supposedly targeting drug traffickers in Syrian territory. Turkey’s Defense Ministry meanwhile said it stands ready to help Syria’s interim government in its ongoing “counter-terrorism” operation against Kurdish fighters in Aleppo. (Image: Pixabay)

Syria

Syria: army shells Kurdish enclaves in Aleppo

Civilians fled Kurdish-majority neighborhoods of Aleppo after the Syrian army declared them “closed military zones” and began shelling the areas. Some 300 homes are reported destroyed in the neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsud and Ashrafiyeh, which have long been under the control of the Kurdish Asayish militia. The Asayish and the interim government’s army blamed each other for initiating the clashes. Thousands have fled through “humanitarian crossings” the army established for residents to evacuate. But the fighting is spreading into the Kurdish heartland. The town of Deir Hafer, east of Aleppo, is also coming under shelling from government forces. The town is held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), main military wing of the Kurdish-led autonomous administration that controls much of the country’s east. The clashes mark the worst outbreak of fighting since an agreement last March to merge the SDF and autonomous administration into Syria’s new government. The deal has still not been implemented, with both sides at odds over the terms. (Map: Google)

Watching the Shadows

‘Donroe Doctrine’ threatens hemisphere

As Nicolás Maduro appeared in federal court in New York, Trump made explicit military threats against Colombia, Mexico, Cuba and Greenland—prompting protests from those countries’ leaders. In defense of his bellicosity, Trump invoked the notion of Latin America as a US influence sphere that was articulated in his recent National Security Strategy, calling it the “Donroe Doctrine.” (Photo: US Navy via Latin America Reports)

Africa

Sahel states launch new joint counter-insurgency force

At an air base in Bamako, Mali’s military ruler Gen. Assimi Goita presided over a ceremony marking the launch of a unified force for three Sahel states to fight the rising tide of jihadist insurgency across their borders. The move comes after the three countries—Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, all now ruled by military juntas—collectively withdrew from the West African regional bloc ECOWAS to form their own Alliance of Sahel States (AES). This new body has deepening ties to Russia, which has maintained paramilitary forces in the AES countries under the rubric of the Wagner Group or Africa Corps. These forces are increasingly accused of atrocities, with Malian refugees in Mauritania reporting rapes, beheadings and mutilation of civilians at the hands of Russian mercenaries. (Photo: Présidence de la République du Mali)

Iran

Protest wave spreads across Iran

On the third day of protests by Tehran bazaar merchants in response to the dire economic situation in Iran, the strike started to spread across the country. Shopkeepers in Isfahan, Ahvaz, Shiraz, Kermanshah and Najafabad closed their stalls and held protest gatherings, where they were joined by students who walked off university campuses. Security forces responded with multiple arrests and the use of live fire and tear-gas, with one student reported severely injured in Tehran. Protest slogans escalated beyond economic grievances, openly targeting clerical rule and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A photo of a lone protester blocking a column of police motorcycles on a Tehran freeway has gone viral, drawing comparisons to the iconic “tank man” photo from Tiananmen Square in June 1989. (Photo via Twitter)

Africa

US strikes supposed ISIS targets in Nigeria

Following through on threats made last month, President Donald Trump announced on social media Christmas Day that he had ordered air-strikes against Islamic State targets in Nigeria, ostensibly in retaliation for the group’s targeting of Christian communities. Trump’s post did not specify where the military action took place, though the Pentagon’s Africa Command later stated that the strikes were in “Soboto State” —an obvious misspelling of Sokoto state, in Nigeria’s northwest. The Nigerian government confirmed the bombings, stating that they were conducted in a “joint operation” —but added that the strikes had “nothing to do with a particular religion.” (Map: Google)

Southern Cone

Chile’s turn to the hard right

The rising wave of far-right populism has arrived in Chile with the victory in the presidential race of José Antonio Kast, an ultra-conservative who campaigned on fighting crime and carrying out mass deportations. Emulating Donald Trump, Kast exploited a backlash against migrants—especially Venezuelans—and pledged to build a separation wall on the border with Peru. His victory marks the country’s sharpest shift to the right since the restoration of democracy after the brutal dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet 30 years ago—an era and figure that Kast has openly admired. (Image: Nicolas Raymond via Flickr)

Greater Middle East

Yemen: UAE-backed southern separatist forces advance

Yemen’s separatist Southern Transitional Council, which is said to be backed by the United Arab Emirates, has been rapidly advancing through large parts of the country’s south and east, in Hadramawt, al-Mahra and Shabwa provinces. They are taking over control from groups backed by Saudi Arabia, including the Hadramawt Tribal Alliance. While all forces involved are supposed to be on the same side in a broader anti-Houthi alliance, the move is yet another reminder that Yemen’s war is not over, and that it involves a variety of actors and local grievances. (Map of Yemen before 1990 unification via Wikipedia)

Central America

Post-electoral tension in Honduras

Honduras is on tenterhooks as the results of its presidential election have not yet been finalized, and Trump has threatened reprisals if his favored candidate fails to win. Since the voting, ex-president Juan Orlando Hernández—convicted in the US last year of drug trafficking and bribery—was pardoned by Trump and released from prison. Adding to the unease is the country’s deeply flawed vote-transmission system, which has crashed twice during the count. This has enabled politicians from across the spectrum—as well as Trump—to fuel the tension by raising allegations of fraud. (Map: Perry-Castañeda Library)

Planet Watch

World’s ‘uncontacted’ peoples face imminent extermination

A comprehensive global report on “uncontacted” indigenous peoples published by UK-based Survival International estimates that the world still holds at least 196 uncontacted or isolated peoples living in 10 countries in South America, Southeast Asia and the Pacific region. Nine out of 10 of these groups face the threat of unwanted contact by extractive industries, including logging, mining and oil and gas drilling. It’s estimated that a quarter are threatened by agribusiness, with a third terrorized by criminal gangs. Intrusions by missionaries are a problem for one in six groups. After contact, indigenous groups are often decimated by illnesses, mainly influenza, for which they have little immunity. Survival International found that unless governments and private companies act to protect them, half of these groups could be wiped out within 10 years. (Photo: Brazil’s indigenous agency, FUNAI, makes contact with the Awá people in 2014. Credit: FUNAI via Mongabay)