Somaliland offers Trump a deal on recognition

SomalilandBreakaway Somaliland is pulling out the stops to win US recognition, offering access to its strategic Berbera port, mineral deals, and even a Trump Tower. Recognition may not immediately be in the cards, but Berbera is particularly significant at the moment. It sits close to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the global shipping lane that Yemen's Houthis can potentially close at will. Somaliland is juicing its proposal with the prospect of a base for US forces (there have already been US military visits), and potentially for Israel—the only country to recognize its independence. The conservative Hudson Institute, among other voices in the US political establishment, is pushing Somaliland's case as a "bulwark" against the Houthis—and even Chinese influence. (Map: Somalia Country Profile)

Worsening Yemen conflict fuels mass displacement

YemenThe UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) expressed concern that mass displacement and the overall humanitarian crisis in Yemen will intensify as the ongoing conflict escalates. Fighting continues to expand, and has driven more than 130,000 people to flee since the beginning of September. The center of the crisis is Taiz, a city in southwestern Yemen, accounting for more than 60% of the new displacement. However, many families are unable to move from the besieged city to more secure locations due to fighting, roadblocks, or lack of access to fuel and transport. The UNHCR reports that growing numbers of Yemenis are becoming international refugees, fleeing across the Gulf of Aden to East Africa. More than 3,000 refugees have arrived in Djibouti and hundreds more have reached Somaliland and Puntland, autonomous states in northern Somalia. (Map via PCL)

Israeli leaders announce plan to cleanse Gaza

GazaThe foreign ministers of eight Muslim countries issued a joint condemnation of remarks by Israeli cabinet ministers announcing plans for the mass displacement of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. Defense Minister Israel Katz said that Israel is seeking the support of Donald Trump for the scheme, adding that there is "no real solution for Gaza without migration" and that the Israeli government is "organized and ready to get them out." National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir followed up by saying that Israel has a plan to expel all 2.1 million Palestinians from Gaza over the next six years, starting with 250,000 people in the first year. Ben-Gvir is alternately calling his plan "Disengagement 7-10," a reference to the October 7 attacks, or the more euphemistic "National Work Plan for Voluntary Emigration from the Gaza Strip." (Photo: Jaber Jehad Badwan via Wikimedia Commons)

Yemen moves closer to ‘all-out war’

YemenYemen is closer to all-out war than at any other point since 2022, UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg told the Security Council amid an upsurge of violence in and around the divided country. A Houthi attack on a cargo ship in the Bab el-Mandeb strait killed six people, while fresh clashes between Houthi and government forces erupted in the frontline city of Taiz the following day. The Houthis said a drone strike on Saudi Arabia's Jizan oil refinery, on the Red Sea just over the border from Yemen, was a response to Saudi violations of Yemeni airspace. (Map via PCL)

US-Iran war spirals across Middle East

SyriaAs the US-Iran war escalates, more countries in the Middle East have—officially or unofficially—entered the fray over the past week. As the US stepped up air-strikes on Iran, it joined with Saudi Arabia to launch strikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Iran (or the Houthis) hit Egypt, Kuwait and Jordan, where three US soldiers were killed. Saudi Arabia is building a military alliance to police the Red Sea, with an eye toward removal of the Houthis from power in Yemen. The US Senate again failed to pass a War Powers Resolution, while the Iran regime apparently sees it as in its political interest to extend the conflict on at least a minimal basis. Nonetheless, it appears to be quickly spiralling out of control. (Image: Pixabay)

AI chatbots shill for repressive regimes

TiananmenNew research from Meta's Oversight Board found commercial large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, DeepSeek, Google, Meta, OpenAI and xAI are far less likely to criticize repressive leaders and governments. The research calls it "free speech infringements by proxy." Apps and material produced by these generative AI tools could actively reproduce restrictions, including on political criticism. It's unclear why these AI models are doing this—underscoring the need for companies to be transparent and build "human rights due diligence" into the process, before it’s too late. China, Thailand, Cambodia and Saudi Arabia topped the list of countries with the highest refusal rates when LLMs were prompted to create materials criticizing governments. (Photo: chinaworker.info)

Houthis threaten to close Bab al-Mandab Strait

YemenYemen's unrecognized Houthi administration warned that they are prepared to close the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, mouth of the Red Sea. This is a second maritime chokepoint for oil from the Arabian Peninsula after the Strait of Hormuz, now effectively closed due to Washington's conflict with Iran. In a post on X, Houthi deputy foreign minister Hussein al-Ezzi said: "If Sana'a decides to close the Bab al-Mandab, then all of mankind and jinn will be utterly powerless to open it." In a speech, Houthi leader Abdel Malek al-Houthi subsequently warned, "Sanaa will not remain neutral," framing the current maritime tensions as part of a wider conflict targeting the "Islamic nation." He said that any further military escalation would be met with an "equivalent response," calling for increased coordination among members of the "axis of resistance" (meaning Iran, the Houthis and Hezbollah). (Map via PCL)

Uncertain ceasefire in Iran

SyriaAfter five weeks of war, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. Its basic details, however, and to what extent it will be implemented, are surrounded by uncertainty. A main sticking point is the question of whether Lebanon was included in the deal. Iranian and Pakistani officials are insisting it was, but the US and Israel say that it wasn't. Meanwhile, Israel has continued to carry out devastating attacks on Beirut and other parts of Lebanon. (Image: Pixabay)

UN condemns ‘alarming’ global increase in executions

executionsThe UN Human Rights Office raised concern over a "sharp hike" in the number of executions globally in 2025. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said his office "monitored an alarming increase in the use of the capital punishment in 2025, especially for offences not meeting the 'most serious crimes' threshold required under international law, the continued execution of people convicted of crimes committed as children, as well as persistent secrecy around executions." The increase primarily came from executions for drug-related offenses in a small number of retentionist states. These are countries that continue to retain capital punishment, as opposed to the growing number of abolitionist states. which do not employ the death penalty. (Photo: ICHRI)

World leaders reject Israeli recognition of Somaliland

SomalilandA group of 21 Arab, African and Islamic nations issued a joint statement formally rejecting Israel's recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. The statement asserted that recognizing Somaliland as a nation independent of Somalia constitutes a grave violation of international law, emphasizing the "serious repercussions of such [an] unprecedented measure on peace and security in the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, and its serious effects on international peace and security as a whole." This statement followed a declaration signed by Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu and Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, making Israel the first country on earth to recognize Somaliland. As part of the deal, Somaliland is expected to recognize Israel under the Abraham Accords. President Donald Trump brokered the Abraham Accords in his first term, seeking to establish diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab nations. However, despite the Trump administration's failed proposition earlier this year for Somaliland to take in Palestinians from Gaza, the US State Department announced that Washington will continue to recognize the territorial integrity of Somalia, "which includes the territory of Somaliland." (Map: Somalia Country Profile)