South China Sea

US instates ‘Trump Corollary’ to Monroe Doctrine

President Donald Trump's new National Security Strategy puts the Western Hemisphere at the center of US foreign policy and revives the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, appending it with a "Trump Corollary." The document presents the Americas as the main line of defense for the US homeland and links that doctrine directly to ongoing military operations against suspected drug traffickers in Caribbean and Pacific waters. It places the Hemisphere as the top regional priority, above Europe, the Middle East and Indo-Pacific, and ties that status to controlling migration, drug flows, and foreign influence before they can reach US territory. It also states that the US will block "non-Hemispheric competitors" from owning or controlling "strategically vital assets" in the Americas, including ports, energy facilities, and telecommunications networks. (Photo: USS Gerald R. Ford. Credit: US Navy via Wikimedia Commons)

US shifts nuclear posture to confront China

President Biden approved in March a highly classified nuclear posture document for the first time reorienting US deterrent strategy to focus on China's rapid expansion in its nuclear arsenal. The shift comes as the Pentagon believes China's stockpiles will rival the size and diversity of those of the United States and Russia over the next decade. The new "Nuclear Employment Guidance" is highly classified, but a copy was just obtained by the New York Times. Beijing reacted angrily to the report. "The US is peddling the China nuclear threat narrative, finding excuses to seek strategic advantage," a Chinese Foreign Ministry representative said. (Map: PCL)

China and Russia launch joint naval exercise

Chinese and Russian naval forces have begun a joint exercise at a southern Chinese military port, China's Ministry of National Defense announced. The "Maritime Joint-2024" exercise is taking place off Zhanjiang, Guangdong province, on the South China Sea. The operations encompass reconnaissance, anti-submarine warfare, anti-missile and air defense maneuvers. This naval cooperation unfolds against a backdrop of mounting tensions between China and NATO allies. At their Washington summit, NATO members designated China as a "decisive enabler" of Russia's war in Ukraine, citing the two nations' declared "no-holds-barred partnership" and China's support for the Russian defense industry. (Map: Google)

Maritime collision escalates South China Sea tensions

Manila accused Chinese military vessels of engaging in "dangerous manoeuvres, including ramming and towing" a Philippine ship in an effort to disrupt a "routine" resupply mission to an outpost on Second Thomas Shoal (known to the Philippines as Ayungin Shoal) in the the disputed Spratly Islands (known to the Philippines as the Kalayaan Islands). By Philippine media accounts, the craft was fired upon with water cannon and boarded by Chinese troops, with several Filipino soldiers injured in the ensuing confrontation. The skirmish came amid escalating tensions over the South China Sea—much of which Manila calls the West Philippine Sea, but nearly all of which is claimed by Beijing. The chief of staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, Romeo Brawner Jr., stated that the military and other maritime law enforcement agencies are prepared to defend Filipino fishermen from China's newly announced "anti-trespassing policy." (Map via IDSA)

Protesters surround Taiwan parliament

Some 30,000 Taiwanese demonstrators surrounded the Legislative Yuan, the island's parliament, one day after Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was sworn in as president. They were protesting against the legislative majority's attempts to enact new laws they say would unconstitutionally limit the power of the executive. Three days before the inauguration, physical conflict broke out among lawmakers on floor of the Legislative Yuan, with five briefly hospitalized. The DPP, while winning the presidency, failed to maintain a legislative majority in the January election, leaving the opposition Kuomintang to form a majority coalition. The Kuomintang favors closer ties with China, while the DPP upholds Taiwan's de facto independence. Beijing responded to Lai's inauguration with menacing naval maneuvers, completely surrounding Taiwan with warships. The protest at the Legislative Yuan evokes memories of the 2014 Sunflower Movement, when activists occupied the parliament chamber for 24 days to oppose a free trade agreement with China being pushed by the then-Kuomintang government. (Photo: Kanshui0943 via WikimediaCommons)

Podcast: geopolitics of the Barbie affair

In Episode 181 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg discusses the strange reality that the Barbie move has been banned in Vietnam over a brief image of a world map appearing to show the "nine-dash line" demarcating China's unilaterally claimed territory in the South China Sea. While US-China brinkmanship over Taiwan wins headlines, Beijing's maritime dispute with Hanoi holds unsettling potential for escalation. In a surreal paradox (for those who remember their history) Vietnam has actually been tilting to the US in the new cold war with China. It has also been increasingly resorting to internal police-state measures to protect the interests of foreign capital in the country. All of this constitutes a rebuke both to the neoliberals, who cling to the discredited dogma that "free markets" inevitably lead to peace and democracy, and to the tankies, who rally around both the regimes in Beijing and Hanoi, in defiance of political reality. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon. (Map via IDSA)

Taiwan extends military conscription period

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen announced a plan to strengthen and restructure the nation's defense strategies, including extending the mandatory conscription period from four months to one year. Beginning in 2024, all males turning 19 will need to undergo a year-long period of military service—for the first time since 2008. In light of China's expansionist military activities in the South China Sea and the firing of ballistic missiles into waters off Taiwan this year, Tsai stressed the need for Taiwan to be well-prepared for war. "The decision is a difficult one, but as the head of the military and for the continued survival of Taiwan, this is an inevitable responsibility," Tsai said. (Photo: Wikimedia Commons)

East Asia

US-China brinkmanship over Taiwan

In an alarming tit-for-tat June 9, Taiwan’s defense ministry said that several Chinese fighter jets briefly entered the country’s air defense identification zone, and the US took the unusual move of flying a C-40A military transport plane over Taiwan. The… Read moreUS-China brinkmanship over Taiwan

East Asia

Taiwan repudiates fascist world order

The UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Iran called on all parties to the conflict to immediately cease hostilities and comply with international humanitarian law following reported US air-strikes that killed and injured civilians in southern Iran. A reported US air-strike hit a home in Kuhestak, Hormozgan province, during a wedding celebration. Iranian media reported that five people died, including two children and one woman, and that dozens of others suffered injuries. Weeks earlier, another reported US strike destroyed a residential home on Qeshm Island, killing a man, a woman and their two-year-old son, and injuring their two other children. Both attacks occurred in areas with historically marginalized minority populations. The Mission identified Kuhestak as predominantly Baloch, and Qeshm as predominantly Sunni. The Mission found that these strikes may have constituted war crimes, and called for thorough investigations. (Map: Wikipedia)

Southeast Asia

China-Indonesia maritime stand-off

A group of UN experts called on Honduras to halt evictions of campesino, indigenous and Afro-descendant communities taking place under Decree No. 107-2026, also known as the Law for the Strengthening & Protection of the Agro-Industrial Sector. The experts wrote: "We cannot stand by and watch the deliberate closing of every legal door through which a peasant, Indigenous or Afro-descendant family in Honduras can challenge dispossession." They especially condemned evictions at the Garífuna community of San Juan in Tela municipality on the Caribbean coast. Five members of the Black Fraternal Organization of Honduras (OFRANEH) were arrested in the operation, and now face charges of "aggravated usurpation" related to their defense of the community’s ancestral territory. (Map: Wikitravel)

Planet Watch

Will world war be October surprise?

Will an "October surprise" in the prelude to the mid-term elections in the US be the outbreak of world war—that is, direct superpower conflict? Things are escalating fast on the frontlines with both of the United States' major imperial rivals. The US Navy's Pacific Fleet is preparing to carry out a "global show of force" as a warning to China, after a near-skirmish between a US warship and a Chinese destroyer in the disputed South China Sea. Meanwhile, NATO is planning to conduct its largest military exercises since the end of the Cold War, Trident Juncture 2018, along Norway's border wth Russia. This comes as Washington and Moscow are odds over missile deployments, accusing each other of violating the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty. (Image: Lockheed Martin)

South Asia

China expands Indian Ocean military footprint

In addition to stationing troops on the disputed islands it claims in the South China Sea, Beijing is rapidly expanding its network of commercial ports across the Indian Ocean. This comes as China is sending warships into the Ocean with growing frequency, leading to fears that the commercial ports could presage military bases, The latest addition is the port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka, acquired in a debt swap deal—the Colombo government was forgiven $1 billion in debt to Beijing in exchange for the Hambantota facility. China has also gained access to facilities in Burma, Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Maldives, Seychelles and Oman as part of the maritime component of its Silk Road trade and infrastructure initiative. While the Silk Road is an ostensibly civilian project, China has also established its first foreign military base at Djibouti, leading Western wonks to warn that Beijing is seeking a "string of pearls" network of bases across the Indian Ocean. (Map via CIMSEC)