Yemen

Somaliland offers Trump a deal on recognition

Breakaway Somaliland is pulling out the stops to win US recognition, offering access to its strategic Berbera port, mineral deals, and even a Trump Tower. Recognition may not immediately be in the cards, but Berbera is particularly significant at the moment. It sits close to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the global shipping lane that Yemen's Houthis can potentially close at will. Somaliland is juicing its proposal with the prospect of a base for US forces (there have already been US military visits), and potentially for Israel—the only country to recognize its independence. The conservative Hudson Institute, among other voices in the US political establishment, is pushing Somaliland's case as a "bulwark" against the Houthis—and even Chinese influence. (Map: Somalia Country Profile)

Worsening Yemen conflict fuels mass displacement

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) expressed concern that mass displacement and the overall humanitarian crisis in Yemen will intensify as the ongoing conflict escalates. Fighting continues to expand, and has driven more than 130,000 people to flee since the beginning of September. The center of the crisis is Taiz, a city in southwestern Yemen, accounting for more than 60% of the new displacement. However, many families are unable to move from the besieged city to more secure locations due to fighting, roadblocks, or lack of access to fuel and transport. The UNHCR reports that growing numbers of Yemenis are becoming international refugees, fleeing across the Gulf of Aden to East Africa. More than 3,000 refugees have arrived in Djibouti and hundreds more have reached Somaliland and Puntland, autonomous states in northern Somalia. (Map via PCL)

Yemen moves closer to ‘all-out war’

Yemen is closer to all-out war than at any other point since 2022, UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg told the Security Council amid an upsurge of violence in and around the divided country. A Houthi attack on a cargo ship in the Bab el-Mandeb strait killed six people, while fresh clashes between Houthi and government forces erupted in the frontline city of Taiz the following day. The Houthis said a drone strike on Saudi Arabia's Jizan oil refinery, on the Red Sea just over the border from Yemen, was a response to Saudi violations of Yemeni airspace. (Map via PCL)

Podcast: geopolitics of The Odyssey

The righties are apoplectic that Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey famously portrays a Black Helen—displaying their ignorance of the actual intercourse between Africa and the ancient Greek world. But apart from the cultural politics of the movie, the geopolitics of the Trojan War have all too much to say about the contemporary world crisis. Then, the Bosphorus and Dardanelles constituted the strategic chokepoints at issue, just as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb do today. And the Bosphorus & Dardanelles could suddenly become critically strategic if Turkey becomes embroiled in either the Middle East war or the Ukraine war—or both. The current world crisis could bring about a civilization collapse far more decisive and complete than the Bronze Age Collapse that followed the Trojan War. In Episode 341 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg breaks it down. (Map: BestQuest)

US-Iran war spirals across Middle East

As the US-Iran war escalates, more countries in the Middle East have—officially or unofficially—entered the fray over the past week. As the US stepped up air-strikes on Iran, it joined with Saudi Arabia to launch strikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Iran (or the Houthis) hit Egypt, Kuwait and Jordan, where three US soldiers were killed. Saudi Arabia is building a military alliance to police the Red Sea, with an eye toward removal of the Houthis from power in Yemen. The US Senate again failed to pass a War Powers Resolution, while the Iran regime apparently sees it as in its political interest to extend the conflict on at least a minimal basis. Nonetheless, it appears to be quickly spiralling out of control. (Image: Pixabay)

Houthis threaten to close Bab al-Mandab Strait

Yemen's unrecognized Houthi administration warned that they are prepared to close the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, mouth of the Red Sea. This is a second maritime chokepoint for oil from the Arabian Peninsula after the Strait of Hormuz, now effectively closed due to Washington's conflict with Iran. In a post on X, Houthi deputy foreign minister Hussein al-Ezzi said: "If Sana'a decides to close the Bab al-Mandab, then all of mankind and jinn will be utterly powerless to open it." In a speech, Houthi leader Abdel Malek al-Houthi subsequently warned, "Sanaa will not remain neutral," framing the current maritime tensions as part of a wider conflict targeting the "Islamic nation." He said that any further military escalation would be met with an "equivalent response," calling for increased coordination among members of the "axis of resistance" (meaning Iran, the Houthis and Hezbollah). (Map via PCL)

Yemen: UAE-backed southern separatists advance

Yemen's separatist Southern Transitional Council, which is said to be backed by the United Arab Emirates, has been rapidly advancing through large parts of the country's south and east, in Hadramawt, al-Mahra and Shabwa provinces. They are taking over control from groups backed by Saudi Arabia, including the Hadramawt Tribal Alliance. While all forces involved are supposed to be on the same side in a broader anti-Houthi alliance, the move is yet another reminder that Yemen's war is not over, and that it involves a variety of actors and local grievances. (Map of Yemen before 1990 unification via Wikipedia)

Syria

Deadly strikes on hospitals: the new norm?

On World Humanitarian Day in August, World Health Organization director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus released a statement calling attention to intensifying attacks on healthcare workers and facilities, which constitute war crimes under international humanitarian law. "We must stop this becoming the norm," he wrote. The events of the past weeks suggest such attacks are now already the norm. In Sudan, the WHO reported that over 100 people, including 63 children, were killed when drone strikes attributed to the Rapid Support Forces hit a kindergarten and nearby hospital in South Kordofan. In Burma's Rakhine state, a military airstrike destroyed the Mrauk-U general hospital, killing at least 31 people and wounding dozens more. It was the 67th attack on a healthcare facility in Burma this year, according to the WHO. Attacks on healthcare facilities killed a record 3,600 people in 2024, mainly in Gaza, Ukraine, Lebanon, Burma and Sudan. This year is on course to surpass that toll. In Gaza alone, at least 917 people were killed by Israeli attacks on healthcare facilities between Oct. 7. 2023 and June of this year. (Photo: Myanmar Now)

Yemen: Houthi authorities round up opposition

Houthi authorities in Yemen have detained dozens of political opponents since July, Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported. The rights group said that at least 70 people associated with the opposition party Yemeni Congregation for Reform, or Islah, were detained in Dhamar governorate. HRW noted that 21 of these individuals have been subject to an "unfair trial" on "dubious accusations of espionage," with 17 sentenced to death by firing squad, and two sentenced to 10 years imprisonment. HRW emphasized that it is illegal under Yemeni law to make arrests without a warrant, and that detention without a legal basis or prompt charges and criminal proceedings violates both domestic and international law. (Map via PCL)

Trump dismisses Saudi human rights concerns

President Donald Trump praised Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as "incredible in terms of human rights" during an Oval Office meeting, preemptively deflecting questions about the kingdom's extensive record of abuses as the crown prince pledged $1 trillion in US investments. The comments came despite weeks of pressure from human rights advocates urging Trump to confront the crown prince over Saudi Arabia's recent grave abuses, an incomplete list of which is said to include record numbers of executions, torture of dissidents, systematic repression of women, and the killing of hundreds of Ethiopian migrants at the Yemen border. Human Rights Watch pointed out that Trump's meeting with bin Salman came just five months after Saudi authorities executed journalist Turki al-Jasser, who had been arrested for social media posts critical of the regime in 2018 and charged with "high treason." Executions in Saudi Arabia are carried out by beheading with a sword. (Photo of Mohammed bin Salman's 2017 White House visit via Wikimedia Commons)

Houthi attacks on shipping condemned as war crimes

Human Rights Watch criticized renewed attacks launched by Yemen's Houthi rebels on commercial cargo ships in the Red Sea. HRW characterized the recent attacks—one deadly—as war crimes, and called for their immediate cessation as well as the release the crew members in Houthi custody. Houthi authorities claimed one of the attacked ships, which was returning from delivering aid to Somalia, was headed for the Israeli port of Eilat. However, this has not been corroborated. (Map via PCL)

Civilian toll of US bombing in Yemen

A late May ceasefire between Yemen's Houthi rebels and the US appears to be holding, although Israel and the Houthis are still in conflict, with the latter saying this week that they have joined Iran's war effort. A new report from casualty monitor AirWars looks at the civilian death toll during the 53 days of "Operation Rough Rider," when Trump escalated a long-running US bombing campaign in Yemen. The monitor says at least 224 civilians were killed between the operation's start in mid-March until the May truce, marking a massive escalation from previous US campaigns. If you also include the 258 civilians counted as killed in the previous 23 years of US operations against the Houthis, al-Qaeda, and other groups, it takes the overall civilian toll from US bombing in Yemen to almost 500. (Photo: CENTCOM)