Great Game

Europe

Trump prepares grab for Ukraine’s lithium

As Trump and Hegseth explicitly broach the surrender of Ukrainian territory to Russia, a poorly positioned Zelensky is acceding to demands that he turn a large portion of his country’s strategic mineral wealth over to the US in compensation for military aid. Especially at issue are Ukraine’s significant reserves of lithium—critical to de facto “co-president” Elon Musk’s e-vehicle interests. In announcing a new lithium refinery in Texas, Musk called the mineral “the new oil.” The premium on Ukraine’s strategic minerals is elevated by China’s perceived design to establish control over the planet’s rare earth elements. However, as Zelensky is quick to emphasize, nearly 20% of Ukraine’s mineral resources are in areas under Russian occupation. (Map: ResearchGate)

Africa

SahelExit raises regional fears amid new ISIS threat

Dubbed “Sahelexit,” the decision by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to leave the West African regional community known as ECOWAS is now official. The three members of the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—sanctioned over coups that overturned their elected governments—are out. It leaves the 12 other countries in ECOWAS, one of Africa’s most economically integrated blocs, rethinking the organization’s relevance. Like ECOWAS, the new group will allow free movement between their shared territories—now derisively referred to as the “coup belt.” But it is in the field of security cooperation that the AES states will be especially missed. Jihadist insurgents are on the march. So-called “Islamic State” forces have set up in northwest Nigeria, where they are known as Lakurawa. With neighboring Niger now pulling out of a regional Multilateral Joint Task Force, there are fears that countering the threat will be all the harder. (Photo via Sahara Reporters)

Africa

Chaos in Congo as M23 seize Goma

In a dramatic escalation of the ongoing conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the M23 rebels seized Goma, the capital of North Kivu province on the Rwandan border. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss the situation, with the DRC accusing Rwanda of sending hundreds of troops across the border to support the M23. The DRC is calling for an arms embargo on Rwanda, and sanctions on its mineral exports. The fall of Goma has sparked protests in the DRC capital, Kinshasa, with foreign embassies vandalized and set on fire, including those of Rwanda, South Africa, the US, Belgium and France. Amid the turmoil, President Felix Tshisekedi has promised a counter-offensive to retake Goma. The DRC’s reliance on foreign mercenaries in the war in the east has drawn sharp criticism. Reports indicate that around 2,000 mercenaries, mostly from Eastern European countries such as Romania, have been hired to fight the M23. (Map: PCL)

Africa

DRC: coltan profits fuel M23 insurgency

The M23 armed group is continuing to pursue expansionist objectives across eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, according to a report by UN experts. The report underscores the failure of peace talks held between DRC and Rwanda (which supports the rebels) under the aegis of Angola. It argues that the M23 plans the long-term occupation and exploitation of conquered territories, where it has been setting up parallel administrations and recruiting thousands of new members, including children. It states that the group has been consolidating support from other armed movements in Ituri, South Kivu and North Kivu provinces, forging non-aggression pacts and building new proxy forces. The rebels are also making a large profit from taxing mineral production, especially at the Rubaya mining sites in North Kivu, one of the world’s largest sources of coltan. The minerals are being “fraudulently exported” to Rwanda in what amounts to the “largest contamination” of mineral supply chains recorded in the region to date. (Photo via Africa Up Close)

Greater Middle East

Rojava and the Rohingya: fearful symmetry

Three weeks after the fall of the Bashar Assad dictatorship, the only fighting in Syria remains between Arab and Kurdish militias—holding grim potential for destabilization of the democratic revolution. Kurds had been persecuted and even denied citizenship under the Assad regime, but the invasion of their autonomous territory of Rojava by the Turkish-backed rebels of the Syrian National Army (SNA) drove them into a paradoxical tactical alliance with the dictatorship. The tragic situation in Burma’s Rakhine state mirrors this disturbing reality. The Muslim Rohingya people had been persecuted, denied citizenship and finally targeted in a campaign of genocide by the military, but are now facing attacks by the Buddhist-supremacist rebels of the Arakan Army—driving some Rohingya into a paradoxical tactical alliance with the military junta. In Episode 258 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg offers this analogy in the hope that the peoples of Burma can unite across religious lines to defeat the junta, and that Syrians can find a way toward co-existence in the new revolutionary order and avoid ethnic war. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon. (Photo of Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army-ARSA rebels: Burma News International)

Africa

Human rights crisis deepens under Sahel juntas

Two attacks on “defenseless civilian populations” along Niger’s border with Burkina Faso left some 40 dead, authorities said. Niamey’s defense ministry said 21 were killed in Libiri village and 18 in Kokorou, both in Tillabéri region. The statement blamed “criminals,” but the borderlands are a stronghold of jihadist insurgents. An even worse attack was reported days earlier, but is being denied by Niger’s ruling junta. Authorities suspended the operations of the BBC in Niger after it reported that jihadists had killed 90 soldiers and upwards of 40 civilians at Chatoumane, also in Tillabéri. According to the monitor Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), at least 1,500 have been killed in jihadist attacks in Niger in the past year—more than double the 650 killed from July 2022 to July 2023. Human Rights Watch meanwhile released a report detailing killings of civilians and other serious abuses committed by Mali’s armed forces in collaboration with Russian mercenaries of the Africa Corps following the withdrawal of a UN peacekeeping mission last year. (Map: Wikivoyage)

Syria

Podcast: Free Syria and the Kurdish question

Amid jubilation following the overthrow of long-ruling dictator Bashar Assad, the only fightingin Syria is now between Arabs and Kurds—as the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) expels the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from the town of Manbij. Ankara’s design is clearly to expunge the Kurdish autonomous zone in the northeast region of Rojava. Yet there are also positive signs of an accommodation between the Rojava Kurds and the new revolutionary administration in Damascus. In Episode 256 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg examines the new political landscape in Syria and tries to identify a way forward—past the threat of ethnic war and toward a multicultural democracy. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon. (Image: Rudaw)

Syria

Syrian revolution met with US, Israeli air-strikes

The same day the Assad regime fell and rebel forces took Damascus, the US military carried out a series of air-strikes against Islamic State positions across central Syria. The Pentagon’s Central Command announced that it “struck over 75 targets using multiple US Air Force assets, including B-52s, F-15s, and A-10s.” The targets included “ISIS leaders, operatives, and camps.” Also that day, Israeli warplanes conducted dozens of raids across Syria, including in Damascus. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) counted more than 100 Israeli strikes on military and industrial targets, including a research center believed to be linked to chemical weapon production. Israel said it was acting to stop weapons from falling “into the hands of extremists.” Israel has additionally seized control of a demilitarized “buffer zone” in the Golan Heights, saying the 1974 disengagement agreement with Syria had “collapsed” with the rebel take-over of the country. (Photo of B-52 bomber: USAF via A&SF)

Syria

Syria: after the fall of the regime

As Syrian rebels advanced on Damascus in a surprise lightning offensive, the Rojava Kurds seized territory from the Bashar Assad regime, and the Druze took up arms in their own region. After years of the lines in the conflict being frozen and the genocidal Assad dictatorship being “normalized,” the unthinkable happened and the dictator fled. Suddenly the 13-year aim of the Syrian Revolution has been realized—the fall of the regime. But the lead rebel faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has an ugly past, its partner the Syrian National Army (SNA) is in the political orbit of Turkish aspiring dictator Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and the threat of Arab-Kurdish ethnic war in northern Syria looms closer. Amid a conflict now dominated by armed actors, can the unarmed civil resistance that began the revolution 13 years ago re-assert itself, and revive the secular-democratic spirit of 2011? In Episode 255 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg takes a hard look. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon. (Photo of Aleppo Citadel in rebel hands via social media, e.g. Twtter)

Syria

Threat of Arab-Kurdish war in new battle for Syria

With the Syrian city of Aleppo now mostly in rebel hands following a surprise offensive, the danger emerges that Kurdish forces could be drawn into the conflict on the side of Assad dictatorship. Kurdish militias have for years controlled their own enclave within the city, the neighborhood of Sheikh Maqsood. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are now trying to open an evacuation corridor between Sheikh Maqsood and the Kurdish-held town of Tal Rifaat to the north. An evacuation of Tal Rifaat itself to Kurdish-held areas to the east is also being prepared. This effort is being blocked by one of the rebel militias, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), with clashes between the two forces reported. The SNA has been repeatedly implicated in abuses against the Kurdish population in areas it took from SDF-aligned forces in a 2019 offensive. This offensive drove the SDF into a tactical alliance with the Assad regime—although this alliance has repeatedly broken down over the regime’s rejection of the SDF’s principal demand of Kurdish autonomy. (Map: Google)

Syria

Syria: rebel forces launch new offensive on Aleppo

In the most significant escalation in Syria since a 2020 ceasefire instated under emergency conditions during the COVID pandemic, rebel forces in northwestern Idlib province launched a surprise offensive on the country’s most populous city, Aleppo. The rebel advance is said to have penetrated the perimeter of the city, which had been held for years by rebel forces before it was retaken by the regime with the help of Russian air power in 2016. Russia has responded to the new offensive with fresh air-strikes on Idlib, which has been coming under intermittent Russian bombardment for years. At least 225 fatalities are reported in the new fighting, including some 25 civilians killed in Russian air-strikes. (Photo: Syrian Observer)

Africa

Russia vetoes UN resolution on Sudan ceasefire

Russia vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution aimed at protecting civilians in Sudan amid the country’s ongoing conflict. The resolution, which called on the warring factions to cease hostilities and engage in dialogue in good faith, was blocked despite widespread support—including from China, which frequently votes in a bloc with Russia. Introduced by the United Kingdom and Sierra Leone, the draft resolution demanded that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) honor and fully implement their pledges in the “Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan,” which was signed by both sides in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in May 2023. Russia said the resolution did not sufficiently respect Sudan’s sovereignty in justifying its veto, which was assailed by international human rights organizations. Sudan’s government rejected the resolution for failing to condemn the United Arab Emirates for backing the RSF—an accusation the UAE has consistently denied. (Photo: Roman Deckert via Wikimedia Commons)