Great Game

Afghanistan

Renewed conflict along Durand Line

In an ongoing counter-insurgency operation dubbed "Azm-e-Istehkam" (Resolve for Stability), Pakistani security forces carried out deadly raids on militants of two "terrorist" networks designated by the propaganda terms "Fitna al-Khawarij" and "Fitna al-Hindustan." The prior, roughly translating as "heretical faction," refers to jihadist formations operating along the border with Afghanistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The later, translating as "Indian faction," refers to ethnic Baloch rebels in Balochistan province—implying that they are backed by India, which Delhi denies. Islamabad also accuses the Taliban regime in Afghanistan of backing both groups of insurgents, and the fighting follows a new round of Pakistani air-strikes across their international border, known as the Durand Line. (Map: PCL)

Iran

Trump prepares new escalation in Persian Gulf

The US is preparing a major naval buildup in the Middle East, including up to three aircraft carriers and their escort ships, as President Trump weighs whether to intensify the war with Iran. The buildup may involve up to 20,000 troops, 150 fighter jets, and numerous destroyers, the Washington Post reported. US and Iranian officials held indirect talks through mediators, focused mostly on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing US sanctions and blockades. Trump has rejected Iran's latest peace proposal as insufficient and raised the possibility of renewed strikes. (Image: Pixabay)

Africa

Ethiopia: drone strikes on Addis Ababa

If Ethiopia's federal government thought Addis Ababa was insulated from the conflict in its restive Tigray and Amhara regions, drone strikes have forced a reappraisal. Blasts targeted the military's headquarters in the west of the city, and another military camp in the south. The seven-member opposition "Alliance for Survival" claimed responsibility. Meanwhile, as fighting worsens, the federal army and pro-government militia are said to be advancing toward northern Tigray's main city of Mekelle. (Map: Political Geography Now)

Africa

Malian forces, Wagner Group accused of war crimes

Amnesty International condemned the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and its partners from the Russian private military company Wagner Group for perpetration of war crimes, including the murder and torture of civilians. Summary executions and massacres appear to have targeted ethnic Fulani men, in what is described as a campaign of ethnic cleansing. A landmark human rights case has been filed before the African Court on Human & Peoples' Rights (ACtHPR) by TRIAL International, the Pan African Lawyers Union (PALU) and the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) against FAMa and Wagner for their role in repeated atrocities and massacres, most famously that at Moura in March 2022. (Photo via Lansing Indstitute)

Africa

Somaliland offers Trump a deal on recognition

Breakaway Somaliland is pulling out the stops to win US recognition, offering access to its strategic Berbera port, mineral deals, and even a Trump Tower. Recognition may not immediately be in the cards, but Berbera is particularly significant at the moment. It sits close to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the global shipping lane that Yemen's Houthis can potentially close at will. Somaliland is juicing its proposal with the prospect of a base for US forces (there have already been US military visits), and potentially for Israel—the only country to recognize its independence. The conservative Hudson Institute, among other voices in the US political establishment, is pushing Somaliland's case as a "bulwark" against the Houthis—and even Chinese influence. (Map: Somalia Country Profile)

Greater Middle East

Worsening Yemen conflict fuels mass displacement

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) expressed concern that mass displacement and the overall humanitarian crisis in Yemen will intensify as the ongoing conflict escalates. Fighting continues to expand, and has driven more than 130,000 people to flee since the beginning of September. The center of the crisis is Taiz, a city in southwestern Yemen, accounting for more than 60% of the new displacement. However, many families are unable to move from the besieged city to more secure locations due to fighting, roadblocks, or lack of access to fuel and transport. The UNHCR reports that growing numbers of Yemenis are becoming international refugees, fleeing across the Gulf of Aden to East Africa. More than 3,000 refugees have arrived in Djibouti and hundreds more have reached Somaliland and Puntland, autonomous states in northern Somalia. (Map via PCL)

Inner Asia

Podcast: #Chinamaxxing & the betrayal of Tibet

As Trump prepares to meet with Xi Jinping at the White House, Students for a Free Tibet prepares a protest in Washington against the Chinese dictator. Protests and civil disobedience actions by New York City’s Tibetan community have mounted since the July self-immolation of longtime activist Lobga Rangzen outside the United Nations building—the first in the wave of Tibetan self-immolations to take place on US soil. This comes amid heightening repression in Tibet following the passage of China’s “Ethnic Unity” law. Rather than taking this opportunity to forge bonds of solidarity with a local ethnic community by embracing its struggle, growing sectors of the “progressive” milieu—including figures associated with the Democratic Socialists of America—have joined those elements of the “left” looking to the oppressive Chinese state as a model and even a source of sponsorship. Happily, there are glimmers of dissent within the DSA to this consolidating dogma. In Episode 346 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg again dissects and repudiates the global divide-and-rule racket that is the essence of the state system. (Photo: Lhak Sam via Facebook)

Africa

UN Mission: foreign support fuels Sudan war

The UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Sudan released a new report detailing how external support networks fuel the conflict and escalate civilian harm in the country. The Mission found that foreign-sourced weapons and personnel have significantly expanded the military capabilities of both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), intensifying the conflict's scale and lethality. Although the UN Security Council has long imposed an arms embargo on Sudan, the Mission believes the RSF sources artillery, air-defense systems, drones, and other military equipment from individuals and entities in the United Arab Emirates, Chad, Libya and Somalia. The report stated that arms suppliers who violate the embargo contribute to crimes under international law. (Map: PCL)

North Africa

Algeria sends troops to Niger

A surprising outcome of the failed coup against Niger's military junta was the arrival, a day later, of an Algerian air detachment, including four SU-30 fighter jets. The deployment was a clear signal that Algeria is breaking from its non-interventionist stance and wants its troubled southern neighbors in the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger—to take note. Algeria was not involved in the quashing of the putsch against Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani. That was down to the presidential guard, backed by Russia's paramilitary force, the Africa Corps. But Algeria does fear state collapse in the Sahel amid Islamist insurgencies that have their roots in its own internal violence of the 1990s. Algeria's new-found interest also coincides with the start of construction on a Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline that will stretch from Nigeria to the Mediterranean coast. (Map: PCL)

Greater Middle East

Israeli strike on Syria signals tension with Türkiye

Israel's bombing of an air-base in northwest Syria brings into sharp focus the escalating tension between Israel and Türkiye. The attack apparently came shortly after a Turkish delegation visited the Abu Duhur base in Idlib province. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement that Israel had attacked the base because Syria was on the verge of breaching the agreed "status quo in security matters" by allowing in Turkish troops. Ankara condemned the Israeli bombing and seemed to deny it was planning to deploy at Abu Duhur, which it has reportedly been rebuilding. The two countries are increasingly at odds over each other's regional presence. A campaign billboard for Netanyahu's Likud party places Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan alongside the leaders of Iran, Hezbollah, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. "They want Netanyahu to lose," it says, refering to his political opposition. "Don't let them win." (Image: Wikipedia)

Greater Middle East

Yemen moves closer to ‘all-out war’

Yemen is closer to all-out war than at any other point since 2022, UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg told the Security Council amid an upsurge of violence in and around the divided country. A Houthi attack on a cargo ship in the Bab el-Mandeb strait killed six people, while fresh clashes between Houthi and government forces erupted in the frontline city of Taiz the following day. The Houthis said a drone strike on Saudi Arabia's Jizan oil refinery, on the Red Sea just over the border from Yemen, was a response to Saudi violations of Yemeni airspace. (Map via PCL)

Greater Middle East

Podcast: geopolitics of The Odyssey

The righties are apoplectic that Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey famously portrays a Black Helen—displaying their ignorance of the actual intercourse between Africa and the ancient Greek world. But apart from the cultural politics of the movie, the geopolitics of the Trojan War have all too much to say about the contemporary world crisis. Then, the Bosphorus and Dardanelles constituted the strategic chokepoints at issue, just as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb do today. And the Bosphorus & Dardanelles could suddenly become critically strategic if Turkey becomes embroiled in either the Middle East war or the Ukraine war—or both. The current world crisis could bring about a civilization collapse far more decisive and complete than the Bronze Age Collapse that followed the Trojan War. In Episode 341 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg breaks it down. (Map: BestQuest)