Since the fall of the Bashar Assad dictatorship in December 2024, Israel has seized and occupied large areas of eastern as-Suwayda, and is believed to have dropped arms to Druze fighters in the region. The province has been effectively divided since fighting broke out last year between Druze militia and central government forces and their local Bedouin allies. (ToI)

The new fighting came one day after Jordan carried out air-strikes on as-Suwayda, ostensibly targeting a depot storing arms and illicit drugs “controlled by rebel groups” in the village of Shahba. Contraband trade in the drug captagon has long been a source of revenue for warring factions in Syria. (AFP)

Syria’s transitional government continues to face other challenges. Damascus on May 5 announced that its forces had foiled a Hezbollah plot to assassinate members of President Ahmad al Shara’s government, with security forces seizing weapons and explosives in raids across the country. The raids, in which at least 11 people were detained, were the most extensive yet against Hezbollah since the fall from power of the group’s former patron Bashar Assad. (The National, UAE)

Map: Google

After five weeks of war, the US and Iran on April 8 agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. Its basic details, however, and to what extent it will be implemented, are surrounded by uncertainty. A main sticking point is the question of whether Lebanon was included in the deal. Iranian and Pakistani officials are insisting it was, but the US and Israel say that it wasn’t. Meanwhile, Israel has continued to carry out devastating attacks on Beirut and other parts of Lebanon.

The shaky ceasefire is based on a 10-point plan to end the war sent by Iran to Washington in the final hours before a deadline set by US President Donald Trump. If Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump threatened on April 7 that a “whole civilization will die tonight.” Since the ceasefire began, some vessels have begun to trickle through the strait, but Iran is maintaining its chokehold on passage. The fate of the ceasefire could be decided in the coming days as US and Iranian officials head to Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, for peace talks.

Israel’s position on the question of whether Lebanon was part of the US-Iran ceasefire was made painfully clear on April 8, as Israel unleashed a massive series of attacks on Beirut and throughout the country. Many of the strikes targeted densely-populated civilian neighborhoods, killing at least 303 people, by the latest count. Hospitals now struggling to deal with the influx of casualties were already working on power supplied by emergency generators, with supplies dwindling.

On April 9, Israel issued an evacuation order for the Beirut neighbourhood of Jnah, which includes two hospitals, Rafik Hariri University Hospital and al-Zahraa, that are treating the injured. WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has said there is nowhere to evacuate patients to, and urged Israel to reverse the order. While various aid groups and leaders urge for the inclusion of Lebanon in the truce, and issue conflicting statements, Lebanese civilians are once again left to wait, search for survivors, and mourn the dead.

From The New Humanitarian, April 10

Image: Pixabay

In Iran, approximately 2,345 people have been arrested on charges related to “national security.” Many of these, as well as more arbitrarily arrested during the January protests, are being held in harsh conditions and incommunicado detention. The state has also cut internet access to prevent external sharing of information. Three protesters were publicly hanged in March after being convicted of “waging war against God” based on “confessions” obtained under torture. Many more are at imminent risk of execution.

Diana Eltahawy, Amnesty International’s deputy regional director for the Middle East and North Africa, issued a statement stressing the grave nature of this situation:

It is unconscionable that even as the population is reeling from conflict and mass bereavement amid the ongoing aerial bombardment by Israel and the USA, the authorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran continue to weaponize the death penalty to eradicate dissenting voices and further terrify people.

The wave of repression and arbitrary detentions extends across the Midlle East. In Bahrain, activist Sayed Mohammed al-Mousawi died in custody in March after suspected torture. Human Rights Watch has also decried Bahrain’s blanket ban on protests.

In Qatar and the UAE, authorities have announced hundreds of detentions for sharing information showing the impact of strikes. In Kuwait, authorities imposed a new decree of imprisonment and steep fines for anyone who “undermine[s] the prestige of the military” or works toward eroding public trust in the armed forces. In Jordan, at least four government critics have been arrested. For example, Omar Awad was taken from the streets by security forces without explanation and has been denied contact with his family and lawyers.

In Palestine, Türk warned of similar trends. Israeli authorities have detained 200 Palestinians on the occupied West Bank since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, including for posting on social media, or on suspicion of “incitement” or “glorifying the enemy.” Rights groups have also reported a rise in direct violence by Israeli forces and settlers. One school principal in Dura, outside Hebron, was physically assaulted and had his home vandalized by Israeli authorities in response to a post he reportedly published in support of Iran. Israel has also recently passed legislation providing for a death penalty to apply selectively to Palestinians for particular crimes.

Türk summarized the increased restrictions on rights, stating:

We are witnessing a sharp securitisation of civic space across the region, with severe restrictions imposed by governments on people exercising their rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly. Waves of arrests and broad clampdowns, mostly on vaguely defined accusations, have had a deeply chilling effect on people, many of whom are already living with uncertainty, fear and anxiety.

Türk called on states to respect their obligations under international human rights law related to freedom of expression and assembly, ensuring access to legal counsel, due process, and a fair trial.

From JURIST, April 2. Used with permission. Internal links added.

Image: Pixabay

A spokesperson for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Ravina Shamdasani, said the attacks raise serious questions about whether the principles of proportionality and precaution were respected under international humanitarian law, noting that the oil depots struck “do not appear to be of military exclusive usage.”

Officials from the World Health Organization (WHO) warned that the burning of depots has released hydrocarbons, sulphur oxides, and nitrogen compounds into the atmosphere. The released pollutants have caused darkened skies in Tehran, prompting authorities to adviseresidents to remain indoors due to respiratory risks.

Israeli strikes on March 7 targeted roughly 30 fuel depots in Tehran. Washington was given advance notice, but US officials said the scale of the operation exceeded expectations, marking the first significant disagreement between the allies since the conflict began.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the WHO, said the agency has also verified 13 attacks on health-care facilities in Iran since the new conflict opened. The attacks have killed and injured first responders, including paramedics. WHO officials say the disruption has blocked access to approximately $18 million in humanitarian health supplies, with an additional $8 million in shipments unable to reach regional distribution hubs.

According to the UN Children’s Fund, supply routes for food and medical aid are already being disrupted as shipping lines divert around conflict zones. Aid officials say delays could worsen child malnutrition in vulnerable communities, including among Afghan refugees living in Iran.

The conflict is beginning to threaten the entire region’s energy infrastructure. Iranian drones struck oil storage tanks at the Port of Salalah in Oman, where civil defense crews are attempting to contain fires at the facility. Earlier attacks targeted fuel infrastructure at Oman’s Port of Duqm, another key export hub, actually outside the choke-point Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials have warned that continued attacks on energy infrastructure could trigger retaliation across the region, including potential strikes on oil facilities belonging to other Gulf states.

Meanwhile, the direct human toll continues to grow. UNICEF reports that approximately 180 children have been killed since hostilities escalated, including dozens in a strike on a girls’ elementary school in southern Iran. UN agencies say the environmental damage, civilian casualties, and attacks on infrastructure could have long-term consequences for public health, humanitarian access, and regional stability as the conflict intensifies.

From JURIST, March 12. Used with permission.

Jordan also carried out a series of air-strikes supposedly targeting drug traffickers in the closing days of December—the latest in ongoing intermittent Jordanian strikes aimed at breaking up the Captagon smuggling networks in Syria. (LWJ)

The past week also saw joint British and French strikes on supposed ISIS targets near Palmyra. (BBC News)

Turkey’s Defense Ministry meanwhile said it stands ready to help Syria’s interim government in its ongoing “counter-terrorism” operation against Kurdish fighters in Aleppo, while adding that the Aleppo operation has so far been “carried out entirely by the Syrian army.” (France24)

Image: Pixabay

Israeli grab for territory
Israeli forces continue to occupy parts of southern Syria, and are accussed of carrying out a range of abuses against residents, including forced displacements. Human Rights Watch said in a new report that Israeli forces have seized and demolished homes, blocked residents from their property and livelihoods, and arbitrarily detained residents and transferred them to Israel.

Since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, Israel has pushed deep into the UN-monitored “buffer zone” separating the Golan Heights—Syrian territory which Israel has held since 1967—from the part of Quneitra province that remained under Syrian control. It has now established nine military posts stretching from Mount Hermon through Quneitra city to parts of western Daraa province. In the supposed interest of protecting the Druze, Israel is proposing an expanded “demilitarized zone” beyond the buffer zone that has been patrolled by the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) since 1974. The expanded zone, from which Syrian government aircraft and artillery would be barred, would cover all of as-Suwayda province. (HRW, ISW)

UNDOF has been protesting the Israeli incursion as a violation of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement.

Controlled parliamentary elections
The tentative deal for as-Suwayda comes at a key moment in Syria’s transition process, with the first parliamentary elections since the fall of the Assad dictatorship to be held early next month. However, rather than a popular vote, lawmakers will be chosen in a controlled process by appointed regional bodies, and many seats are to be directly chosen by transitional president Ahmad al-Sharaa. “The reality in Syria does not permit the holding of traditional elections, given the presence of millions of internally and externally displaced persons, the absence of official documents [and] the fragility of the legal structure,” the government said in a statement explaining the indirect election model. Critics say the process gives the president too much control, while leaving religious minorities under-represented. (PRI, DW)

Map: PCL

Guterres’ statement follows Israel’s decision to permit a one-week scale-up of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. UN agencies welcomed the easing of aid restrictions and so-called “humanitarian pauses” in the ongoing bombardment; however, as emphasized by UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher: “This is progress, but vast amounts of aid are needed to stave off famine and a catastrophic health crisis.”

The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) confirmed that one out of five children is currently malnourished in Gaza. The agency also claimed that the death toll from starvation has risen to over 100 as of July 28, urging: “Opening all the crossings and flooding Gaza with assistance is the only way to avert further deepening of starvation among the people of Gaza. What’s needed is at least 500/600 trucks of basics every day.”

However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continued to insist: “There is no starvation in Gaza, no policy of starvation in Gaza.” (Jurist)

Over the past days, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates have parachuted 25 tons of aid into Gaza. Germany and France also announced airdrop missions. However, this approach is being protested by aid organizations. “Using airdrops for the delivery of humanitarian aid is a futile initiative that smacks of cynicism,” said Jean Guy Vataux, the emergency coordinator in Gaza for Doctors Without Borders (MSF). He said airdrops were “notoriously ineffective and dangerous.”

The Israeli military body that facilitates the entry of aid to Gaza, COGAT, said 220 aid trucks crossed into the Gaza Strip on July 30, taking advantage of the “humanitarian pauses” in bombing of designated areas of the Strip to allow aid shipments. (DW, CBS)

Food scarcity experts at the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) on July 29 said that “the worst-case scenario of Famine is currently playing out in the Gaza Strip,” and reported that “widespread starvation, malnutrition, and disease are driving a rise in hunger-related deaths,” with the famine threshold reached in most areas. Famine is Phase 5 of the IPC designation system. The IPC now says that two out of three Phase 5 thresholds have been reached in Gaza: plummeting food consumption and acute malnutrition.

A famine has not been officially declared by the IPC as the third criteria, deaths from malnutrition, cannot be demonstrated. However, the Gaza health ministry says that the total number of malnutrition deaths since the start of the conflict in October 2023 has now reached 154—including 89 children. Several such deaths were reported over the past days. Reports of “hunger-related deaths” from Gaza hospitals (if not “malnutrition deaths”) are indeed noted in the latest IPC Alert. (Jurist, UN News, BBC News)

Under customary international humanitarian law, Additional Protocols I and II of the Geneva Conventions, and international criminal law, the use of starvation of civilian populations as a method of warfare is expressly prohibited. (Jurist)

Gaza health authorities said July 31 that at least 91 people were killed near aid distribution sites across the Strip over the previous 48 hours. More than 1,000 people have now been killed while seeking food aid, primarily shot by Israeli soldiers at sites run by the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). (The Guardian, ABC News)

To encourage the international community to adopt a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, the UN is currently holding a high-level conference. With several states participating, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot confirmed that France is set to recognize the statehood of Palestine in September. The UK has also issued warnings that, should the ongoing Israeli actions in Gaza persist, it would consider recognizing the Palestinian state. (Jurist)

See our last report on genocide accusations against Israel.

Photo: Maan News Agency

Jordan can’t claim to protect Petra’s living heritage while sidelining the community that embodies it. It should work, together with UNESCO, to uphold the rights of the Bedul and ensure their full participation in the shaping of the future of the site they’ve called home for generations.

According to the report, the government is forcibly evicting the Bedul, one of several Bedouin communities living in the Petra area in the southern part of Jordan. In targeting the community for eviction, Jordanian authorities are violating their economic, social, and cultural rights, and their rights to housing.

Residents have reported that the suspending of water services has required community members to travel to Um Sayhoun, a village three kilometers away, to access drinking water, or else collect water from a polluted stream used by local restaurants to discard waste. The cut-off has also caused damage to residents’ crops, requiring them to spend money on food they would not need to purchase otherwise.

After UNESCO designated Petra a World Heritage Site in 1985, the forced relocation of the Bedul began as a supposed measure to conserve the site’s archeological zone. The present wave of evictions started in late 2024, when authorities targeted approximately 25 families living in caves and tents on the site’s Stooh al-Nabi Harun Mountain. Residents say that the housing complex the authorities plan to relocate them to is in an isolated area with unreliable public transport, making visiting family and markets difficult.

Fares al-Braizat, chair of the Board of Commissioners of the Petra Development & Tourism Regional Authority (PDTRA), the national institution dedicated to managing the archeological zone and developing the area, portrayed the evictions as a component of a plan “to enhance the rule of law” and remove “sources of threat” to the visitors at the global tourist site.

The Bedul tribe is recognized by UNESCO as part of Petra’s living heritage. HRW urged Jordanian authorities, UN agencies, and other actors to formally recognize the Bedu as indigenous people, affording them rights in accordance with international standards.

From JURIST, July 22. Used with permission.

Photo: Vyacheslav Argenberg/Wikimedia Commons

From a humanitarian perspective, almost anything would be an improvement compared to the kinetic horror, mass displacement, and orchestrated deprivation and starvation of the past 15 months.

Any sense of relief, however, is tempered by the sheer scale of death and destruction, the profound uncertainties of the ceasefire agreement, and the fact that the underlying issues that have fuelled human suffering in Gaza–and throughout the Palestinian territories–since long before this war began, remain unaddressed: Israel’s ongoing, illegal occupation; its administrative control of virtually every facet of life; and its deliberate thwarting of Palestinian autonomy and self-determination.

Uncertainties of the deal
The looming challenge of scaling up the humanitarian response amid widespread destruction, terms of access dictated by Israel, and the desperation of the population in Gaza—much of which has been on the verge of starvation for months–is just one of the questions left unanswered, or only partially answered, by the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

The three-phase deal is essentially the same one that has been on the table since last May, and which was repeatedly scuppered by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right allies.

The first 42-day phase, which began on Jan. 19, involves an initial exchange of hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel. The Israeli military will also withdraw from population centers in Gaza, the amount of aid allowed to enter the enclave is supposed to be ramped up to 600 truckloads per day, and displaced Palestinians will be allowed to return to their homes—or what is left of them.

The much more contentious issues of how Gaza will be governed and the conditions for Israel’s total withdrawal have been left for negotiations over the second phase of the deal, which aren’t set to begin until 16 days into the first phase.

Even if the first phase goes smoothly, there’s good reason to be concerned that the agreement may fall apart over the details of the second phase.

Netanyahu has vowed not to fully withdraw from Gaza until Hamas’ military capabilities are totally dismantled and the group is no longer in control of the enclave. Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened to quit Netanyahu’s governing coalition, potentially collapsing it, unless Israel continues the war after the first phase of the deal, controls the distribution of humanitarian aid, and gradually takes over the entirety of Gaza—conditions Netanyahu reportedly accepted.

Netanayahu has also said he received guarantees from the US that it will support Israel restarting the war if the deal falls apart, and other Israeli ministers have made cryptic statements about much remaining “hidden from view.”

If the second round of negotiations begin in good faith—doubtful, given the statements of senior Israeli politicians—it’s difficult to see how negotiators will be able to find common ground on the central question of who will govern Gaza after the war or even come up with a practicable plan.

The US, European countries, and Gulf Arab states have been pushing for a reformed Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, to also administer Gaza. Israel has rejected that idea without outlining an alternative. Moreover, the Palestinian Authority lacks legitimacy among many Palestinians, who see it as a sub-contractor of the Israeli occupation.

Tellingly, the main arbiters of the conversation are Israel, which stands accused of committing genocide and numerous war crimes in Gaza over the past 15 months, and the US, which has bankrolled, armed, and provided diplomatic cover for the Israeli campaign. Consideration of Palestinians’ right to self-determination, or even to have some say in how they are governed, is completely absent.

A bleak picture
Realistically, what we could be looking at is a temporary ceasefire that lasts for part or all of the first 42-day phase, followed by Israel resuming its military campaign in some form or the negotiations falling apart over the question of post-war governance, leaving it unresolved.

In that case, Gaza would find itself frozen in limbo–neither at war nor at peace, with Israel reserving the right to carry out strikes on remnants of Hamas whenever they regroup. In the power vacuum, the territory would further fracture into cantons controlled by local powerbrokers, with pockets of anarchy in between—a process that is already underway.

UN agencies and NGOs would be left to try to keep the population on life support, subject to the amount of aid Israel decides to allow in, without ever really being able to stabilize the population or start the massive reconstruction effort that will be required to turn Gaza into a place that can support life once again.

Even if, defying the odds, Israel and Hamas are able to reach an agreement on post-war governance and phase two and three of the deal go ahead, culminating in the release of all of the remaining Israeli hostages—including the bodies of the deceased—and the beginning of a reconstruction plan for Gaza, the fundamental issues driving the conflict will remain.

Israel has made it clear time and again—including in a Knesset vote last July—that it is opposed to the formation of a Palestinian state, and much of Netanyahu’s political career has been dedicated to thwarting the creation of one.

Additionally, hints have already started to emerge about how the incoming Trump administration may have gotten Netanyahu to move forward with a ceasefire agreement that he had resisted signing for eight months under the Biden administration, including by lifting US sanctions on violent Israeli settlers in the West Bank, retaliating against the ICC for issuing war crimes arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant, and leading efforts at the UN to replace UNRWA.

Under a Trump administration that promises to be even more staunchly pro-Israel than the Biden administration, it’s difficult to imagine Palestinians seeing anything resembling their aspirations for a state being met, or justice and accountability for the crimes that have been committed during the past 15 months—to say nothing of decades of occupation.

So what are we to expect as this ceasefire takes hold?

The deal itself may only lead to a brief respite before the war resumes, or to the beginning of a new phase that may be less overtly violent but just as detrimental to life in Gaza in a slower and equally pernicious way. Sadly, a pathway to sustainable peace that would allow people in Gaza to recover, rebuild, and heal looks as far off as it has possibly ever been.

If there are points of light, they come from the mass protest movements calling for Palestinian freedom galvanised by this war, the activist-led efforts to isolate Israel diplomatically and financially, the fact that much of the world outside of the US and Europe clearly sees what is taking place, and the prospect of international legal mechanisms resisting the efforts to undermine them and trying to deliver at least a degree of justice and accountability.

— Eric Reidy for The New Humanitarian, Jan. 20 (condensed)

Photo: Rita Baroud/TNH

As the police crackdown on the Gaza protests continues coast–to–coast—drawing concern from Amnesty International—Bill Weinberg notes that this repression comes in the month marking the 54th anniversary of slayings of student protesters at Kent State University in Ohio and Jackson State University in Mississippi. With police now unleashing violence on student protesters in Paris, Amsterdam and elsewhere in Europe, as well as in Jordan and Lebanon, there is an unsettling sense of deja vu. In Episode 225 of the CounterVortex podcast, Weinberg warns that the world could be headed toward an historical moment that rhymes with May 1970.

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Production by Chris Rywalt

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Photo: Kent State University Libraries via Britannica