But the fighting appears to spreading into the Kurdish heartland. The town of Deir Hafer, east of Aleppo, is also coming under shelling from government forces. The town is held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), main military wing of the Kurdish-led autonomous administration that controls much of the country’s east.

With several casualties in both Aleppo and Deir Hafer, the clashes mark the deadliest outbreak of fighting since an agreement last March to merge the SDF and autonomous administration into Syria’s new government. The deal has still not been implemented, with both sides at odds over the terms. (Rudaw, Rudaw, France24)

In a grim irony, this comes exactly a decade after the peak of the massive bombardment of Aleppo by the Assad regime.

Map: Google

In a statement issued by his office, Guterres said he “unequivocally condemns” the bombing, stressing that “attacks against civilians and places of worship are unacceptable”  He noted that Syrian authorities have also condemned the attack, and reaffirmed their commitment to combat terrorism and hold perpetrators accountable.

A group calling itself Ansar al-Sunna, said to be a splinter of the Islamic State (ISIS), claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it had coordinated with “mujahideen from another group” to detonate explosives inside the mosque. The group previously claimed responsibility for the June 22 suicide bombing at Mar Elias church in Damascus that left 25 people dead, raising concerns about a pattern of attacks on religious sites.

Syria’s Interior Ministry said it has cordoned off the area around the mosque in Homs, and begun collecting evidence to “prosecute the perpetrators of this criminal act,” while the Foreign Ministry denounced the bombing as a “cowardly criminal act” aimed at undermining security and spreading chaos.

Under international humanitarian law and customary norms, intentional attacks on civilians and on buildings dedicated to religion are prohibited and may constitute war crimes when carried out in the context of armed conflict. Syria remains bound by its obligations under international human rights law to protect the right to life, safeguard freedom of religion, and ensure the security of minority communities.

The bombing in Homs sparked angry protests and street clashes in the Alawite heartland of Latakia and Tartous provinces on Syria’s coast.

From JURIST, Dec. 28. Used with permission. Internal links added.

Note: There have been various jihadist formations that go by the name Ansar al-Sunna in different countries, but it is unclear if they are organizationally linked.

Map: Google

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New fighting in the Kurdish district of Sheikh Maqsoud in Aleppo city between government forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), armed wing of the Kurdish-led autonomous administration that still controls much of the country’s northeast, points to the continued threat of ethnic war. Results in Syria’s first post-revolution parliamentary elections (carried out in a controlled process by the central government, not popular vote) were tilted to the Sunni Arab majority. Exiled left-dissident Joseph Daher sees a consolidation of power by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the ostensibly disbanded Islamist formation that led the rebel offensive that toppled the old regime last December, and whose leader is the current interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa. Can the current transition process in Syria return to the secular-democratic values of the 2011 Arab Revolution without a rethinking of nationalist precepts?

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Photo: Aymara march in Oruro, Bolivia. Via Wikipedia

Fighting broke out Sept. 20 in the village of Um Tineh, in Deir Hafer district of Syria’s Aleppo province, between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and forces aligned with the Damascus regime, leaving at least seven civilians dead. The SDF said the clashes began with a drone attack on the village, followed by artillery bombardment, damaging local homes. The statement blamed the assault on forces loyal to Turkey, implying they were fighters of the Syrian National Army (SNA), which has apparently not yet been thoroughly integrated into the central government’s newly constituted Syrian Armed Forces.

The Democratic Autonomous Administration of North & East Syria (DAANES) also issued a strong condemnation of the “horrific massacre,” adding that “such practices prove that some parties are not serious about building a new Syria based on freedom, democracy, and social justice.” (Kurdistan24, SOHR, ANHA)

The clashes came three days after President Ahmed al-Sharaa warned  that the SDF’s failure to integrate into the Syrian Armed Forces could provoke Turkish military intervention. Speaking to the Turkish newspaper Milliyet ahead of his arrival in New York to attend the UN General Assembly meeting, al-Sharaa charged that SDF demands for regional autonomy are a “cover for separatist ambitions.” He said that the SDF’s decision to remain in arms despite the call by Abdullah Öcalan to dissolve the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) makes it a security threat for Turkey, and that Ankara’s patience “may run out by year’s end.”

Recounting his March meeting with SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi on integration of the Kurdish autonomous zone, al-Sharaa said he told him directly: “If you come to demand Kurdish rights, there is no need. My principle is that Kurds are equal Syrian citizens, and I am more concerned about their rights than you are.”

Meanwhile, Commander Abdi used a military council meeting to reiterate the SDF’s commitment to the March 10 agreement, urging all sides to maintain the fragile ceasefire in northeast Syria. “The political solution is the best option to preserve Syria’s stability and the well-being of its citizens,” Abdi said. (Kurdistan24)

On the same day as al-Sharaa’s warning, thousands of people rallied in the SDF-controlled town of Qamishli in support of the DAANES and to demand a “decentralization” model for Syria that will maintain autonomy for the Kurdish region in the northeast, known as Rojava. One prominent banner read: “The SDF is the will of the people.” (Kurdistan24, TNA)

The rally was called partly in response to moves by the Syrian Ministry of Justice in the SNA-held town of Afrin to remove remnant Kurdish judicial officials, replacing them with Arabs. Kurdish activists assailed this as a policy of “Arabization” that protends erosion or abolition of the autonomous administration in Rojava. (Kurdistan24)

Deir Hafer district, where the new clashes took place, is part of Tabqa canton under the DAANES system, which was re-organized after Afrin (formerly its own “canton”) was taken by Turkish-backed forces in 2018. Planned talks in Paris between the SDF/DAANES and the Damascus government on how to integrate the autonomous zone were cancelled in mid-August when the central government dropped out. The transitional government cited a conference held by the SDF in Hasakah (capital of the province of that name, and part of Jazira/Cizre canton under the DAANES, also covering Qamishli), aimed at uniting the Kurds and other Syrian minority peoples in the northeast.

The Aug. 8 conference, entitled “Unifying the Position of the Components of Northern & Eastern Syria,” was assailed by the transitional government as a “serious blow” to the ongoing negotiations and a “clear violation” of the March 10 agreement. The statement accused “extremist Kurdish factions” within the SDF of seeking “systematic demographic change against Arab Syrians” under instructions from the (ostensibly dissolved) PKK leadership in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains. (Anadolu Agency, France24, Jusoor)

Turkey has repeatedly bombed SDF-held territory in Syria over the past months, as the threat of Arab-Kurdish ethnic war looms larger on the ground.

Photo: SOHR

This means that the situation is inherently still extremely fragile. The vital ingredients to address this fragility are clear: we need genuine political inclusion so that all Syrians can participate meaningfully in shaping their country’s political future, along with countering extremism and terrorism; and real support from the international community to give this transition a chance to succeed against great odds.

Despite expanding to a more diverse cabinet, the new Syrian government has yet to achieve full inclusivity, with the Syrian Women’s Political Movement expressing concerns about women’s political participation. There is currently only one woman among the 22 cabinet members: Hind Kabawat, a Catholic, was appointed as minister of Labor & Social Affairs.

In reference to the recent violence in the coastal region (Latakia), Pedersen urged the new government to ensure that all segments of Syrian society are protected, and to prevent individuals or groups from taking justice into their own hands or committing revenge-driven attacks. The statement noted that such sporadic incidents continue to be reported.

Pedersen commended the regional support to Syria, which has enabled its debt repayment to the World Bank, as well as the UK’s lifting of sanctions. But Syria’s economic situation remains dire, with dwindling humanitarian aid posing a major threat.

Following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, the new Syrian interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, announced the formation of a “caretaker government,” set to last until March 2025. In late March, al-Sharaa unveiled a new government to oversee the transition. Al-Sharaa proclaimed: “We are witnessing the birth of a new phase in our national process, and the formation of a new government today is a declaration of our common will to build a new State.”

From JURIST, April 27. Used with permission.

See our last report on the transition process in Syria.

Photo: SANA

It is unclear if the Latakia fighting is linked to the “Syrian Popular Resistance,” which declared its existence in a statement Dec. 29, pledging to attack figures affiliated with (the now ostensibly dissolved) Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the leading faction in the forces that took power and formed the transition government in December, purportedly in response to the killing of Shi’ites and Christians since the overthrow of the Assad regime. The statement labeled the HTS-led coalition “Kharijites,” implying that they are heretical. (ISW)

Despite its “secular” veneer, the Assad regime cultivated a support base among followers the Alawite sect of Shia Islam, while the majority Sunnis chiefly supported the opposition, allowing sectarians on both sides to exploit the conflict. (There were, of course some Alawites who broke with the regime.)

The UN human rights office has indeed made note of some cases of apparent reprisal killings of Alawites since the fall of Assad, although it is unclear whether they were targeted for their sectarian affiliation or for being Assad collaborators. It is also unclear who the perpetrators are, and reprisal attacks have been condemned and disavowed by the transition government. (UN News)

Nonetheless, the usually very reliable Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said March 7 that at least 162 civilians had been killed in “field executions” in the context of the new fighting in Latakia. The following day, SOHR said the total number of such summary executions of Alawite civilians had reached 340. The new government is said to have opened a dialogue with Alawite leaders in Damascus to try to de-escalate the situation. (BBC News, PRI)

Israeli land-grab, air-strikes
On Feb. 25, Israel, which has established a “security zone” in Syria’s south, carried out air-strikes on military sites in Kiswah, south of Damascus, and in Daraa province. The strikes came two days after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanded the “demilitarization” of southern Syria. In announcing the strikes, Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel “will not allow southern Syria to become southern Lebanon.” He warned: “Any attempt by the Syrian regime forces and the country’s terrorist organizations to establish themselves in the security zone in southern Syria will be met with fire.” (EA Worldview)

Kurdish conflict unresolved; Turkish air-strikes
Fighting meanwhile continues in north and eastern Syria between the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). As SDF fighters continue to block the SNA advance on the frontline town of Manbij, Turkish warplanes reportedly carried out air-strikes this week on civilian targets around Kobani, in the heart of the Kurdish autonomous territory of Rojava. (SDF Press Office, BBC News)

Convergence threat, conspiracy theories
Unfortunately, there are fears of a convergence between the conflicts in Syria’s south and northeast. SDF commander Gen. Mazloum Abdi reportedly told a BBC journalist March 5 that if Israel can “prevent attacks against us and stop the killing of our people, we welcome that and appreciate it.” He added:  “We welcome anyone in the world who can help support our rights and protect our achievements… We welcome support from anyone.”

These statements followed BBC journalist Jiyar Gol’s comments that “there are reports of contact between Rojava and Israel,” and that “Israel’s Foreign Minister has repeatedly asked for support for the Kurds in Syria.” (Jerusalem Post)

This will certainly play into the endless conspiracy theories in Turkish nationalist circles that the Kurds are the pawns of a Zionist conspiracy against Turkey and the Muslim world.

The Iran factor
Yet, ironically, the Kurds are also accused of receiving support from Israel’s bitter regional enemy, Iran. The foreign ministries of Turkey and Iran have each summoned their respective envoys for remonstrance after Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan implied that Tehran is backing the SDF—and seemed to threaten to back rebel groups in Iran in retaliation!

In an interview with Al Jazeera Arabic on Feb. 26, Fidan addressed Iran, saying: “If you try to create unrest in another country by supporting a group there, another country might support a group in your country to create unrest for you. Nothing can remain hidden in today’s world. The capabilities you have, others also possess. Therefore, if you do not want stones thrown at your window, you should not throw stones at others’ windows.” (Middle East Eye)

This implied threat may be a reference to Iran’s Azeri ethnic minority, who are closely related to the Turks, and have been facing a harsh crackdown in the Islamic Republic following a wave of protests.

The extensive Iran-backed militia forces in Syria were propping up Bashar Assad, and their status since the fall of his regime is uncertain. The SNA attacks on Rojava over the past years did drive the SDF into a paradoxical tactical alliance with the Assad dictatorship—despite their fundamental disagreement on the question of Kurdish autonomy. The militantly secular and feminist SDF are obviously at even greater odds with Iran’s woman-oppressing, clerical-reactionary regime.

In fact, the SDF is informally allied and ideologically linked with a Kurdish rebel group within Iran, the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK). We may assume that if Ankara decides to make trouble for Iran by backing a rebel group within its territory, it won’t be them.

The SDF have also, of course, been heavily backed by the US Pentagon to fight ISIS, which would make any such tactical alliance between them and Tehran ironic in the extreme. These operations continue even now, with the US Central Command announcing March 8 that it had assisted in an SDF raid that broke up an “ISIS cell” in al-Shuhayl, in eastern Deir ez-Zor province. (Rudaw)

The PKK factor
Another factor that may impact the situation is the recent call by Abdullah Öcalan, imprisoned head of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), for the Kurdish revolutionary movement in Turkey to negotiate a ceasefire and lay down arms. The Rojava leadership is within the ideological orbit of Öcalan and the PKK, and a ceasefire in Turkey could provide greater impetus for the SDF to reach accommodations with the new government in Syria—despite obvious obstacles.

Toward a new constitution: unanswered questions
Syria’s new leadership held a two-day national dialogue conference Feb. 24-5, which authorities hailed as the first step towards drafting a constitution and rebuilding the country. The Damascus meeting was presided over by transitional president Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly head of HTS, when he was known by the nom de guerre Jolani.

But critics protested that the 600-delegate conference did not include any Kurdish officialsfrom the Rojava region. It was also unclear what influence the conference’s non-binding recommendations would have on the new government. (TNH, Al Jazeera)

According to the state news agency SANA (now controlled by the interim government), the conference issued several resolutions, including for the formation of a legislative council, and a commitment to human rights, “transitional justice,” and a guarantee of freedom of expression.

However, no further details were provided, leaving key questions about the new constitution unanswered.

Al Jazeera Arabic reported that the declaration of constitutional principles included a stipulation that Syria’s president must be a Muslim. This will not be welcomed by the militantly secular Rojava Kurds. And there was no word on a question of critical importance to the Kurdish leadership: whether the new Syria is to be centralist or federalist, allowing for survival of the Rojava autonomous zone. (The New Arab)

The Druze factor
The transition government also appears to face a challenge in another restive and traditionally excluded minority—the Druze, in the southern province of Suweida. Protests by local  Druze were reported in Suweida city March 6, apparently led by the local Military Council that took up arms against the Assad regime in its final days. However, there were also reports of internecine fighting between the Military Council and the Men of Dignity, another Druze formation that opposed the Assad regime and appears to now support the transitional government. (Syrian Observer)

The Russia factor
Amid all this, Russia, which had massively backed the Assad dictatorship, is now said to be in talks with the new authorities in a bid to retain its military bases in Syria—principally the airfield at Hmeimim in Latakia, and the naval base at Tartus, in the province of that name just to the south. Surprisingly, it appears that these bases have not yet been evacuated. Reports indicate that when Russian convoys venture out from these bases, they receive an escort from the security forces of the new government. (Syrian Observer, Reuters)

Map: PCL

Reports were also unclear on whether the units in question were from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the military alliance supported by the autonomous administration, or its affiliated police force, the Asayish. The Autonomous Administration of North & East Syria (AANES) overturned the planned price hikes in response to the protests. However, the SDF General Command issued a statement warning that “protesting activities should not be turned into means to strike at peace and security,” and implying that the demonstrations had been stirred up by “outside propaganda.” (UrduPoint News, Enab Baladi, Kurdistan24, Arab News, ANHA)

A similar incident was reported Jan. 31 in Hasakah city, where one was killed as Kurdish militiamen fired on protesters. The protesters were reportedly supporters of the Bashar Assad regime, who chanted “With our souls, our blood, we sacrifice for you, Bashar.” (AFP)

Kurdish forces also fired on protesters in Deir ez-Zor province in May 2019. There were also reports that Kurdish militiamen fired on a a protest by local Assyrian Christians in Qamishli in September 2018.

Qamishli is a remnant AANES stronghold after much of the Rojava region (Kurdish northeast Syria) was seized by Turkish-led forces in the intervention of late 2019. The other towns that saw protests this week are in Arab-majority territory to the south that was taken by the SDF when they drove out ISIS in a years-long US-supported campaign ending in early 2019.

So in the bizarre state of affairs since 2019, Arab and Turkish forces are occupying Kurdish-majority regions of northeast Syria, while Kurdish forces are occupying Arab-majority regions—a reality convenient to the intended Great Power carve-up of Syria, but certain to exacerbate Arab-Kurdish tensions.

Photo of Qamlishi protest: Ekrem Salih/Kurdistan24

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a tweet, reported by Hurriyet Daily News: “Our Turkish Armed Forces with Syrian National Army has started the #OperationPeaceSpring against the PKK/YPG and Daesh terrorist organizations, in northern Syria. Our aim is to wipe out the terror corridor, trying to be implemented in our southern border, and bring peace and security to the region… With Operation Peace Spring, we will eliminate the terror threats towards our country. With the SAFE ZONE we will establish, we will provide the return of Syrian refugees to their countries. We will protect the territorial integrity of Syria and save the region’s people from the claws of terror.”

A few comments. First, a scorecard, for those who have not closely followed the various factions. The Syrian National Army is not actually the Syrian national army, that of the Assad regime, which is called the Syrian Arab Army. It is the alliance of Syrian rebel militias that have joined with Turkish forces and accepted Ankara’s leadership. The PKK is the Kurdistan Workers Party, the Kurdish rebel group in Turkish territory, which Erdogan considers the Syrian Kurdish movement to be a mere extension of. The YPG is the People’s Protection Units, the main Kurdish militia and core of the SDF. Daesh is the popular Arabic pejorative for ISIS.

So again we have Turkey’s ultra-cynical propaganda trick of conflating the secular-democratic Kurdish forces that defeated ISIS with ISIS.

But note the truly special perversity of cloaking this aggression in the guise of a “safe zone” for refugees, a humanitarian operation. In reality, Erdogan is exploiting the refugees as demographic cannon fodder, using them to populate areas Kurds are now to be displaced from, creating a new class of refugees, pitting Arabs against Kurds, and establishing the conditions for potentially generations of Arab-Kurdish ethnic war in northern Syria.

Adding to the Orwellian nature of all this is the moniker “Operation Peace Spring.” Note that the first Turkish aggression against the Syrian Kurds, the taking of Afrin canton in January 2018, was similarly dubbed Operation Olive Branch.

Genocide Watch warns that “Kurds, Christians, and Yezidis in Northeast Syria are at grave risk of genocide” in the wake of the Turkish intervention.

Turkey has declared its intention to “resettle” millions of Syrian Arab refugees now in Turkey into Kurdish northeastern Syria. This forced displacement and refoulement of refugees is a crime against humanity and a violation of UN refugee conventions. It would “resettle” Syrian Arab refugees in a region that was not their former home. Turkey’s goal is to forcibly displace a million Kurds on Turkey’s southern border and replace them with Syrian Arabs, just as the Turks have done in Afrin. Turkey intends this demographic change to destroy Kurdish autonomy in “Rojava” a self-governing Kurdish region of northeastern Syria.

Erdoğan has vowed to continue the Turkish invasion further east to Manbij and Kobane in Syria as well as to the Sinjar and Nineveh regions of Iraq, ostensibly to destroy the PKK, but actually to drive Kurds out of all Syrian border areas with Turkey. Turkey’s aggression into neighboring states threatens the long-term security of all Kurdish, Christian, and Yezidi populations in the region. Turkey’s intention is genocide.

The Assad regime has wasted no time in exploiting the situation, of course. Assad’s deputy foreign minister Faisal Mekdad called on the Kurds to join the government side rather than “plunge into the abyss.” (Haaretz)

But of course a Kurdish separate peace with the mass-murdering regime would also mean abrogating their hard-won autonomy—and yet further advance the trajectory toward ethnic war.

The betrayal of the Syrian Kurds is one that was long foretold. It is now upon us, and urgently demands worldwide protest. The stakes for the future peace of the entire region could not be higher.

Map: Genocide Watch

The bright yellow flag of the SDF was raised over Baghouz, the eastern Syrian village where remnant ISIS forces made their last stand. The victorious forces held a brief press conference in the village.

“We end the Jazeera Storm Operation here. We congratulate this victory as a glad tiding to Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians, and all the people of the world,” said Chiya Firat, the SDF commandeder who led the campaign against ISIS in eastern Deir ez-Zor province. (Rudaw)

Trump was of course quick to implicitly take credit for the victory. “The United States will defend American interests whenever and wherever necessary,” he said. “We will continue to work with our partners and allies to totally crush radical Islamic terrorists.” (AFP)

But this is a victory for the Rojava Kurds and their Arab and Assyrian allies, not for Trump. And it could paradoxically mean very bad news for them, as they have now outlived their usefulness to the empire and could be betrayed to Turkish aggression.

Contrary, to the oft-heard calumny that the Rojava Kurds are “separatists,” note that the flag they just raised in Baghouz shows the outline of the territory of the Syrian nation, in its entirety—although it does show the Euphrates River, which may be meant to indicate the boundary of the Kurdish autonomous zone. It also says “Syrian Democratic Forces” in the Kurdish, Arabic and Assyrian languages.

The critical question remains, however, of which Syrians they will join with to rebuild national unity.

The top military commander of the SDF in the aftermath of the battle for Baghouz issued an appeal to the Assad regime. “We call on the central government in Damascus to prefer the process of dialogue,” Mazloum Kobane said in a statement. He also called on Damascus to “start practical steps to reach a political solution based on the recognition” of the Rojava autonomous zone. (Al Jazeera)

Accepting a deal with the Assad dictatorship would of couse utterly betray the “democratic” part of the SDF’s name. But they are in a tough spot. Seekng aid from the Pentagon against ISIS was a compromise too…

The former Rojava self-governing canton west of the Euphrates, Afrin, is now occupied (or perhaps de-facto annexed) by Turkey—in collaboration with some Syrian rebel forces. The occupation forces have been brutalizing and expelling the Kurdish population of Afrin—most recently, taking steps to prevent them from celebrating the traditional Nowruz festival, local sources report. Occupation authorities apparently distributed a notice in Turkish and Arabic saying that Nowruz was not an official public holiday and, as such, citizens would not be permitted to celebrate in any way. (New Arab)

Syrian rebel forces are collaborating in the occupation of Afrin out of loyalty to Turkey, which has helped protect  Idlib province, the last under rebel control, from reconquest by Assad and his Russian allies. But betrayal of the Kurds is the price of the rebels’ tactical alliance with Turkey. Similarly, betrayal of the Syrian rebel opposition—and Sunni Arab majority—would be the price of the Rojava Kurds’ tactical alliance with Assad.

Meanwhile, amid the celebration over the final territorial defeat of ISIS, last week Assad and Russia resumed their bombardment of Idlib. (The Guardian)

Despite all the absurdly premature crowing about how the Syrian war is over, the fates of Deir ez-Zor, Rojava, Idlib and Afrin alike all remain unclear. The final collapse of ISIS could just set off a new scramble for Syria’s north. We only hope it does not result in an Arab-Kurdish ethnic war.

Image: SDF