The payment came days after a $2 billion contract for 12 F-16s was signed by an official in Peru’s Air Force—over the head of Balcázar, who was informed of finalization of the deal only after the fact.

In fact, hours before a ceremonial signing April 17, Balcázar announced in a radio interview that the next president should decide on the deal, saying his interim government lacked the authority to make such a large outlay. In early March, Balcázar had signed a decree designating the project a “military secret,” limiting public information about government negotiations for the deal.

In a lengthy post after the signing, the US Embassy said that on April 14 “Lockheed Martin was informed in writing of its selection, with a technical signing scheduled for 7:00am and a ceremonial signing for 5:00pm on April 17.” The US ambassador, Bernie Navarro, accused Balcázar of “bad faith” in announcing the postponement, and warned that Washington would use “every available tool” to promote its interests. The “technical signing” finally took place on April 20.

Peru has ​spent years negotiating with different companies to modernize its aging fleet of Mirage 2000 and MiG‑29 fighters acquired in the 1980s and 1990s. The Air Force says it is looking to eventually acquire a total of 24 jets from Lockheed.

The imbroglio has yet further divided Peru’s already rancorous political class, and especially raised suspicions of US intentions. “It’s extortion,” Jorge Nieto, a centrist presidential candidate and former defense minister, said in a TV interview. “If we don’t play our cards right, we run the risk of turning from a country into a territory.” (NYT, BreakingDefense, Reuters)

Results still have not been finalized for the hotly contested presidential election, which took place on April 12. Police in Lima on April 24 raided the home of Piero Corvetto, former head of the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE), as part of a judicial warrant in an investigation of electoral irregularities. (Al Jazeera)

Photo: Wikipedia

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Human Rights Watch (HRW) urged Magyar’s incoming government to take immediate steps to restore democratic norms in Hungary. The organization called for the swift dissolution of the Sovereignty Protection Office, a body established in 2023 with broad powers to investigate journalists, civil organizations, and academics that receive foreign funding. HRW also pressed for an end to emergency decree powers that have allowed Orbán’s executive to bypass the parliamentary process since 2020.

HRW urged the incoming government to drop criminal charges against Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony, who is being prosecuted for holding the city’s Pride March last June in defiance of a ban imposed by Orbán’s government, and against Géza Buzás-Hábel, organizer of the Pride march in Pécs.

Orbán’s measures against dissent of course mirror those of Vladimir Putin, and indeed his defeat diminishes an emerging pro-Russian bloc on the continent, also including Slovakia and (outside the EU) Serbia and Belarus. The fall of Orbán is expected to free up a €17 billion loan to Ukraine that his government had effecitvely blocked.

However, Péter Magyar is a creature of the center-right, and a former Orbán ally. His Respect & Freedom (Tisza) party broke from Fidesz in 2020, in response to Orbán’s growing authoritarianism. His proclivities are fundamentally conservative, and he may not mean a full de-Orbánification. In a bad sign, Magyar on April 15 held what the Israeli Foreign Ministry called a “warm introductory phone call” with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, pointing to a continuity in ties. Orbán’s Hungary and Donald Trump’s United States are the only two countries Netanyahu has been able to safely visit since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest to face war crimes charges in November 2024.

Nonetheless, among those around the world taking courage in the fall of Orbán are the Israeli protesters who have mounted a campaign of militant demonstrations against Netanyahu and his wars. (Jurist, JP, PRI, EuroNews)

Sidelined by the world media spotlight, a more stark struggle with stakes just as high for the survival of democratic norms is emerging in the South American nation of Peru. As Hungarians voted, so did Peruvians, in a crowded field of 35 candidates following years of political chaos that have seen 10 presidents in as many years. Leading the field was Keiko Fujimori, perennial candidate of the hard-right Fuerza Popular.

Keiko is the daughter of ex-dictator Alberto Fujimori, who shamefully died a free man in December 2024, having been released from prison after 17 years following a pardon for his convictions for corruption and human rights abuses. The younger Fujimori remained an unabashed supporter of the elder to the very end, and her potential election promises a reversal of the process of de-Fujimorification that Peru has undergone since the fall of his eight-year period of strongman rule in 2000.

A decision on who Keiko Fujimori would face in a run-off was delayed by several days after the National Office of Electoral Process (ONPE) found that a private contractor failed to deliver ballots to dozens of polling stations across the province of Lima, preventing more than 52,000 citizens from voting on time. One of her two leading contenders, former Lima mayor Rafael López Aliaga, alleged widespread fraud and called for the vote to be annulled. The EU election observer mission reported that it had found no evidence of fraud. But tension mounted as López Aliaga’s supporters mobilized to the street.

López Aliaga, known by his appropriate nickname “Porky,” is also a figure of the hard right, although of a more Catholic bent than Fujimori, and has similarly run on pledges of a harsh crackdown on soaring crime and the narco economy. In an echo of Trump’s Alligator Alcatraz, he has proposed building penal colonies in the Amazon rainforest, surrounded by moats filled with vipers.

López Aliaga has not dropped his demands for annullment, but it now emerges that Fujimori will face a contender from the left in the June 7 run-off. This is Roberto Sánchez Palomino of Juntos por el Perú. Sánchez is the political heir of imprisoned ex-president Pedro Castillo, a political outsider of campesino origins whose 2021 election shook up Peru’s establishment. Castillo’s ouster and detention by order of Congress the following year ended his contentious rule and sparked weeks of protests that were met with massive deadly repression. Sánchez, who had served in Castillo’s cabinet, similarly ran with strong support from rural Andean regions, traditionally excluded from Peruvian politics, and similarly wears a traditional campesino sombrero.

There is a sense of deju vu here, as Keiko Fujimori has made it as far as a presidential run-off in 2011, 2016 and 2021. During the first run, she brought in Rudolph Giuliani as “national security advisor.” In the second run (taking place five months before Trump was first elected here in Gringolandia), she was defeated by the center-right Pedro Pablo Kuczynski after Verónika Mendoza, the left-wing candidate who was bumped out of the race in the first round, threw her support behind him to avoid a re-Fujimorification of the country. As persident, it was Kuczynski who pardoned Alberto Fujimori, in a betrayal of the progressive-minded Peruvians who had helped elect him.

With the center now having effectively collapsed in Peruvian politics, this kind of outcome, at least, is excluded from possibility. However, a win by Keiko Fujimori on her fourth try for the presidency portends a far worse outcome. (Americas Quarterly, Jurist, France24, France24, AFP, Reuters)

Peru may seem far removed from the world stage compared to Hungary, but the Great Powers are definitely playing their chess game here as well. Florida Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar has called on Peru’s next government to “take back” the Chinese-controlled port of Chancay, portraying the deep-water facility as a military threat to the hemisphere. Salazar, chair of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, said during a hearing on April 16 that Washington must help Peru wrest the megaport from Chinese hands. “The new Peruvian government, which will be elected next June, must take it back, that port, take it back, and the United States will help them,” Salazar said.

She argued that the port, just up the coast from Lima, has “dual usage” potential, meaning it could shift from commercial to military operations, allowing Chinese submarines, warships and aircraft carriers to operate from Peru’s territory. (SCMP)

Even a new President Fujimori would be unlikely to take this bait from Washington, as China, like the US, is a free-trade partner of Peru and top investor in its lucrative mineral sector. But there’s much contention about Chinese versus North American influence in the country. The last interim president, José Jerí, who had faced a wave of Gen Z protests last year, was finally removed by Congress this February following unregistered meetings with two Chinese businessmen. The incumbent interim president José María Balcázar is of the left, and popular anger at Peru’s traditional political class is palpable.

Whether it is the populist left of Sánchez or the populist right of Fujimori that prevails in June, the Great Power pressures on Peru will remain. The implications for Peru internally, however, will be very different—and this also has regional implications, as the right has made recent electoral gains throughout Latin America: just over the past months, in Chile, Bolivia and Costa Rica. A new right-authoritarian bloc is emerging, just as the Trump regime is launching new adventures in gunboat diplomacy.

Hopefully, Peru will not be the next addition to this bloc. But a Fujimori victory could mean a fatal blow to Peru’s deeply troubled democracy. A Sánchez victory, on the other hand, would heighten the social contradictions in Peru—with both opportunities for a more meaningful democracy, and dangers of a backlash from the conservative establishment.

Photo: Wikipedia

Colombia has experienced a decades-long armed conflict that began with the formation of guerrilla groups, notably the FARC and the ELN. Paramilitary groups later emerged to fight the guerrillas. Following a landmark peace agreement with the FARC in 2016 and ongoing negotiations with the ELN that began in 2018, violence levels have been reduced. But the protracted conflict has led to a profusion of armed actors and fueled the growth of private military and security companies (PMSCs).

In a September 2025 report, the UN Working Group on the use of mercenaries raised the alarm over the role of mercenaries and PMSCs in exploiting natural resources at the expense of human rights in multiple conflict zones around the world. The Working Group detailed how these entities, often colluding with governments, corporations and criminal syndicates, commit grave rights abuses to secure access to valuable resources such as minerals, oil, timber and agricultural land.

According to the report, these abuses include arbitrary detention, torture, sexual violence and forced displacement, as well as severe environmental destruction. The experts highlighted the disproportionate impact of these activities on indigenous populations and rural communities: “These communities often face violations of their rights to land, culture, and livelihood, further compounded by the lack of access to justice and remedies.”

While experts in the new statement acknowledged the legitimacy of some overseas employment in military and security roles for Colombians, they reiterated that the use of mercenaries is prohibited under international law. The experts concluded: “Effectively tackling mercenary recruitment is not just a national issue; it requires robust regional and global cooperation given its transnational nature.”

From JURIST, March 28. Used with permission. Internal links added.

Photo: Contagio Radio

Despite this, Prime Minister Denisse Miralles, serving under Peru’s recently seated interim President José María Balcazar, stated to the press: “There is enough fuel of all kinds: GLP, diesel, everything. Therefore, there should not be a price hike. Prices rise when there is a shortage, but that is not the case; what we have is hoarding and speculation.”

Nonetheless, repairs to the affected section of the disabled pipeline are being carried out. The cause of the incident is being investigated by Peru’s Supervisory Organism for Investment in Energy & Mining (Osinergmin). (Jurist, Andina, BNAmericas)

Photo: Ministerio de Defensa del Perú via Wikipedia

On Jan. 20, Eliecer Erlinto Chamorro AKA “Antonio García,” leader of the National Liberation Army (ELN), released a video stating that although the group collects taxes from cocaine producers in its territory, it does not operate cocaine production facilities or drug trafficking networks.

In a message posted on X, Petro confirmed his acceptance of the proposal, stating that the body responsible for verifying the rebel group’s claims must be “scientific and independent of governments,” and should submit its findings to the United Nations. He also urged the rebels to support efforts aimed at replacing coca crops in the northeastern Catatumbo region, a key area for cocaine production.

The announcement comes amid ongoing scrutiny of Colombia’s long-running conflict and its entanglement with the drug trade. By endorsing an independent investigation, Petro signaled a willingness to subject both government narratives and rebel claims to international scrutiny, potentially reshaping accountability within Colombia.

President Petro has repeatedly criticized corruption within previous governments, recently writing on X that what he called the “most corrupt government of this century” was responsible for the killing of up to 6,402 young people who were falsely presented as guerrillas, as well as the loss of billions in public health funds. Recognizing a pattern of impunity, his decision to back an independent investigation signals an effort to strengthen accountability and reassert the rule of law.

According to United Nations figures, Colombia recorded its largest cocaine seizures between 2023 and 2024, and extradited 700 drug traffickers to the United States and the European Union.

From JURIST, Feb. 16. Used with permission. Internal links added.

Photo: Colombia Reports

The order states that any judicial proceedings against funds from “the sale of natural resources” from the Venezuelan government would inhibit efforts to “ensure economic and political stability” in the country. It adds that they would interfere with numerous US foreign policy objectives, such as ending irregular migration, cracking down on the influx of narcotics, and protecting against foreign actors such as Iran and Hezbollah. It describes potential judicial processes as an “unusual and extraordinary threat,” and declares a national emergency.

There are three legal bases for the order, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which gives the president a broad range of economic powers in national emergencies; the National Emergencies Act, which allows the president to declare national emergencies; and Section 301 of Title 3 of the US Code, which allows the president to delegate powers.

This order follows statements from Trump that US oil companies will invest billions in Venezuela, with his Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying that the US will control and market Venezuela’s oil “indefinitely.” The president called a meeting on Friday with oil executives to discuss rebuilding the country’s oil infrastructure, and announced that 30 million barrels of oil, worth $4 billion, are currently on their way to the US.

The CEO of ExxonMobil, Darren Woods, expressed concern about conditions in Venezuela, and said that the country is currently “un-investable.” Trump responded angrily that he was “inclined” to keep ExxonMobil out of Venezuela.

Companies including ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips say that Venezuela owes them billions of dollars over lost investments. Trump’s executive order could hinder these companies from recovering their claims.

From JURIST, Jan. 12. Used with permission. Internal links added.

Map: Perry-Castañeda Library

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Did Delcy capitulate?
Meanwhile in Washington, White House officials were briefing members of Congress, who were not notified beforehand of the Jan. 3 military operation in which Maduro was captured.

And in Venezuela, Maduro’s groomed successor, newly inaugurated acting president Delcy Rodríguez, showed signs of capitulating to the pressure from Washington. After the Pentagon raid in which Maduro was taken (which also claimed the lives of at least 60 people, including civilians and several members of a Cuban security detail), Rodriguez defiantly stated in a televised address: “There is only one president in Venezuela, and his name is Nicolás Maduro Moros.”

But the next day, she struck a conciliatory tone, writing on social media: “We invite the US government to collaborate with us on an agenda of cooperation oriented towards shared development within the framework of international law to strengthen lasting community coexistence.”

Bellicose mid-flight press conference
Rodríguez is under explicit threat from Trump, who told reporters on a Dec. 4 flight from Florida to DC that if she doesn’t cooperate “she will face a situation probably worse than Maduro.” When asked about his boast that he will “run” Venezuela, Trump responded: “We’re dealing with the people. We’re dealing with the people that just got sworn in. And don’t ask me who’s in charge, because I will give you an answer and it’ll be very controversial.” When the reporter took this bait and asked him what that meant, he replied: “It means we’re in charge.”

Trump was similarly lacking subtlety in his claim to Venezuela’s oil: “The oil companies are ready to go. They’re going to go in. They’re going to rebuild the infrastructure. You know, we built it to start off with many years ago. They took it away. You can’t do that.”

Apparently refering to Venezuelan efforts to extend state control over the country’s oil resources following US investment in the sector over a century ago, he added: “It was the greatest theft in the history of America. Nobody has ever stolen our property like they have. They took our oil away from us. They took the infrastructure away and all that infrastructure is rotted and decayed, and the oil companies are going to go in and rebuild it.”

And indeed, shares of Chevron, the last US oil company that was authorized to operate in Venezuela, soared as much as 10% in pre-market trading after Trump’s comment. Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips shares also rose around 4%.

Queried about his supposed isolationism and antipathy to “nation-building,” Trump explicitly invoked the notion of Latin America as a US influence sphere, which was articulated in his recent National Security Strategy. He said of Venezuela: “This isn’t a country that’s on the other side of the world. This isn’t a country like we have to travel 24 hours in an airplane. This is Venezuela. It’s in our area, the Donroe Doctrine.”

Colombia, Mexico, Cuba, Greenland
He went on to directly threaten Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro: “He has cocaine mills, cocaine factories. He’s not going to be doing it very long.” So there will be another military operation?, the reporter asked. Trump: “It sounds good to me.”

Mexico was next. Invoking the flow of migrants across the US southern border, Trump reiterated his recent threat of military intervention: “Mexico has to get their act together, because they’re pouring through Mexico, and we’re going to have to do something.”

And even Greenland: “We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security. And Denmark is not going to be able to do it, I can tell you. You know what Denmark did recently to boost up security in Greenland? They added one more dogsled. It’s true.”

Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen prompty responded: “This is enough. No more pressure. No more innuendo. No more fantasies about annexation.”

And Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said in a statement: “It is necessary to reaffirm that in Mexico the people are in charge and that we are a free, independent and sovereign country. Cooperation, yes. Subordination and intervention, no.”

But Secretary of State Marco Rubio meanwhile warned that Cuba could be next, responding to a reporter’s question at a DC press conference: “Yeah, look, if I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I’d be concerned.” (PBS NewsHour, FreedomNews.tv, CNN, The Hill, Politico, NDTV, NBC News)

Photo: US Navy via Latin America Reports

Trump made the remarks during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. He stated that the US would “run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition,” without specifying a timeline. He emphasized the recent decline of Venezuela’s oil industry, saying that US oil companies would spend billions to repair the country’s infrastructure and bring in foreign exchange. He claimed to be acting in the interest of bringing “peace, liberty and justice for the great people of Venezuela,” including Venezuelans in the US who want to return to their home country. He added that the US would be prepared to “stage a second and larger attack” if necessary.

Trump described Maduro as an illegitimate dictator and accused him of overseeing drug trafficking to the US, threatening the stability of the region and causing suffering to American communities.

Maduro and his wife were indicted in the Southern District of New York in 2020. They are due to appear in federal court on Jan. 5, where they will be charged with “narco-terrorism conspiracy,” cocaine importation conspiracy, and possession of machine guns and destructive devices, as well as conspiracy to possess such devices. They are currently being held in the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, has been sworn in as interim president.

The US raid on the military base where Maduro was housed near Caracas took place at around 4:30 AM on Jan. 3 and lasted less than 30 minutes. He was first transported aboard the USS Iwo Jima to the US base at Guantánamo Bay before being flown to New York City.

The capture of Maduro has provoked strong reactions both in the region and internationally. Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Spain and Uruguay released a joint statement condemning the attack, describing it as an “extremely dangerous precedent.”

In contrast, Maria Corina Machado, who won the Nobel Peace Prize earlier this year and was prevented from running in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, said that “the United States government has fulfilled its promise to enforce the law” and “we are ready to assert our mandate and take power.”

Under Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, states are obligated to refrain from “the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.” The exceptions to this rule are self-defense and authorization by the UN Security Council. The UN Fact-Finding Mission on Venezuela stated after the raid that the “Maduro government’s longstanding record of grave human rights violations does not justify a US military intervention that breaches international law.”

Maduro came to power in 2013 after the death of his predecessor Hugo Chávez, under whom he had served as vice president. He was elected as president later that year, and again in 2018. He was most recently re-elected in 2024, despite accusations of interference with the election results and suppression of political opposition. He has been criticized for committing extensive human rights violations, including arbitrary detentions, inhuman treatment, and extrajudicial killings.

The raid on Caracas is the culmination of numerous measures that the US has taken against Venezuela over the past year. These include sanctions on oil companies operating in Venezuela, blockades on oil tankers, and strikes on vessels suspected of drug trafficking.

From JURIST, Jan. 4. Used with permission. Internal links added.

Map: Perry-Castañeda Library